Friday, February 20
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Tornado Watch
Tornado Watch issued February 19 at 1:21PM EST until February 19 at 9:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 10 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY SCOTT WASHINGTON IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 26 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY ANDERSON BOYLE BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT FRANKLIN GRAYSON GREEN HANCOCK HARDIN HART HENRY JEFFERSON LARUE MARION MEADE MERCER NELSON OHIO OLDHAM SHELBY SPENCER TAYLOR TRIMBLE WASHINGTON IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BUTLER EDMONSON THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ABERDEEN, ADYEVILLE, ADYEVILLE, ALLENDALE, ALTON, ATHERTONVILLE, BAIZETOWN, BARDSTOWN, BARDSTOWN JUNCTION, BEAVER DAM, BECKS MILL, BECKS MILL, BEDA, BEDFORD, BELLEVIEW, BELLEVIEW, BLACK GNAT, BOHON, BRANDENBURG, BROWNSBORO, BROWNSTOWN, BROWNSTOWN, BRYANTSBURG, BRYANTSBURG, BUCKNER, BUFFALO, CAMPBELLSVILLE, CANMER, CANTON, CANTON, CECILIA, CEMENTVILLE, CEMENTVILLE, CHAMBERSBURG, CHAMBERSBURG, CHINA, CHINA, CLARK REGIONAL AIRPORT, CLERMONT, CORYDON, CORYDON, COXS CREEK, CROMWELL, DANVILLE, DEATSVILLE, DUBOIS, DUBOIS, DUKES, DUNBAR, EDWARDSVILLE, EDWARDSVILLE, ELIZABETHTOWN, ELK CREEK, ELK HORN, EMINENCE, ENGLISH, EVANS LANDING, EVANS LANDING, EXIE, FLAHERTY, FLOYDS KNOBS, FLOYDS KNOBS, FORT KNOX, FRANKFORT, FRENCH LICK MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, GARFIELD, GATCHEL, GATCHEL, GLEN DEAN, GLENSBORO, GOSHEN, GOSHEN, GRAEFENBURG, GREENSBURG, HARDINSBURG, HARDYVILLE, HARNED, HARRISONVILLE, HARRODSBURG, HARTFORD, HAWESVILLE, HIGHGROVE, HILLVIEW, HITCHCOCK, HOBSON, HODGENVILLE, HORSE CAVE, HUNTINGBURG AIRPORT, IRELAND, IRELAND, JASPER, JASPER, JEFFERSONVILLE, JEFFERSONVILLE, KESSINGER, KOSSUTH, KOSSUTH, LA GRANGE, LAWRENCEBURG, LEBANON, LEITCHFIELD, LEWISPORT, LITTLE MOUNT, LOGANSPORT, LOUISVILLE, LYONS, MADISON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, MADRID, MAGNOLIA, MARENGO, MARENGO, MAUD, MCDANIELS, MCQUADY, MILLTOWN, MILLTOWN, MILTON, MORGANTOWN, MOUNT WASHINGTON, MULDRAUGH, MUNFORDVILLE, NEW ALBANY, NEW ALBANY, NEW BOSTON, NEW MARKET, PAOLI, PATESVILLE, PAYNEVILLE, PELLVILLE, PEWEE VALLEY, PEYTONA, PIERCE, PRENTISS, QUALITY, RADCLIFF, REX, ROSINE, SALOMA, SAMUELS, SHAKERTOWN, SHELBYVILLE, SHEPHERDSVILLE, SLIGO, SOUTHVILLE, SPRINGFIELD, STEPHENSBURG, SUMMERSVILLE, SYRIA, TAYLORSVILLE, TELL CITY, TERRY, TYRONE, UNO, WADDY, WAKEFIELD, WATERFORD, WESTPORT, WHITE CLOUD, WHITE CLOUD, YOUNGS CREEK, AND YUMA.
Tornado Watch
Tornado Watch issued February 19 at 12:21PM CST until February 19 at 8:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 10 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST /9 PM EST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS EDWARDS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN SALINE WABASH WAYNE WHITE IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA POSEY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA GIBSON PIKE SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY CALDWELL CRITTENDEN DAVIESS HENDERSON HOPKINS MCLEAN MUHLENBERG UNION WEBSTER THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALBION, BOONVILLE, CALHOUN, CARMI, DIXON, ELIZABETHTOWN, EVANSVILLE, FAIRFIELD, FORT BRANCH, GRAYVILLE, GREENVILLE, HARRISBURG, HENDERSON, MADISONVILLE, MARION, MCLEANSBORO, MORGANFIELD, MOUNT CARMEL, OWENSBORO, PETERSBURG, POSEYVILLE, PRINCETON, ROCKPORT, SHAWNEETOWN, AND WEST SALEM.
Tornado Watch
Tornado Watch issued February 19 at 1:21PM EST until February 19 at 9:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 10 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA DEARBORN FRANKLIN OHIO RIPLEY SWITZERLAND IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY CARROLL GALLATIN OWEN THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF AURORA, BATESVILLE, BRIGHT, BROOKVILLE, CARROLLTON, DILLSBORO, GREENDALE, HIDDEN VALLEY, LAWRENCEBURG, MILAN, OSGOOD, OWENTON, RISING SUN, VERSAILLES, VEVAY, AND WARSAW.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued February 19 at 1:51PM EST until February 20 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Gallia and Lawrence OH, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Barbour, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Randolph, Northwest Webster, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Randolph, Southeast Webster, Taylor, Upshur, Wayne and Wirt.
WHEN Through Friday morning.
IMPACTS Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Area creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more heavy rain. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Quick hitting rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.00 inch are expected within strong thunderstorms. Combined with already elevated streamflows, this poses a threat for localized flooding. Additionally, elevations above 3,500 feet will see the added hydrologic element of snow and ice melt further contributing to river and stream rises. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued February 19 at 2:33PM EST until February 20 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Gallia and Lawrence OH, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Barbour, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Randolph, Northwest Webster, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Randolph, Southeast Webster, Taylor, Upshur, Wayne and Wirt.
WHEN Through Friday morning.
IMPACTS Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Area creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more heavy rain. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Quick hitting rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.00 inch are expected within strong thunderstorms. Combined with already elevated streamflows, this poses a threat for localized flooding. Additionally, elevations above 3,500 feet will see the added hydrologic element of snow and ice melt further contributing to river and stream rises. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Tornado Watch
Tornado Watch issued February 19 at 6:01PM EST until February 19 at 9:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
TORNADO WATCH 10 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA CRAWFORD DUBOIS JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY SCOTT WASHINGTON IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY HANCOCK THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ADYEVILLE, ADYEVILLE, BECKS MILL, BECKS MILL, BELLEVIEW, BELLEVIEW, BROWNSTOWN, BROWNSTOWN, BRYANTSBURG, BRYANTSBURG, CANTON, CANTON, CHAMBERSBURG, CHAMBERSBURG, CHINA, CHINA, DUBOIS, DUBOIS, DUKES, ENGLISH, FRENCH LICK MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, GATCHEL, GATCHEL, GOSHEN, GOSHEN, HAWESVILLE, HITCHCOCK, HUNTINGBURG AIRPORT, IRELAND, IRELAND, JASPER, JASPER, KOSSUTH, KOSSUTH, LEWISPORT, MADISON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, MARENGO, MARENGO, MILLTOWN, MILLTOWN, PAOLI, PATESVILLE, PELLVILLE, SYRIA, TELL CITY, TERRY, AND YOUNGS CREEK.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued February 19 at 10:02PM EST until February 20 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Gallia and Lawrence OH, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Barbour, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Randolph, Northwest Webster, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Randolph, Southeast Webster, Taylor, Upshur, Wayne and Wirt.
WHEN Until 7 AM EST Friday.
IMPACTS Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Area creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more heavy rain. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Quick hitting rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.00 inch are expected within strong thunderstorms. Combined with already elevated streamflows poses a threat for localized flooding. Additionally, Additional rainfall overnight combined with already elevated streamflows poses a threat for localized flooding. Elevations above 3,500 feet will see the added hydrologic element of snow and ice melt further contributing to river and stream rises. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 19 at 11:22PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
Strong wind gusts from the south-southwest will be possible late tonight ahead of an approaching cold front, especially in any rain showers. Brief wind gusts over 35-40 mph are possible. Early Friday morning, winds will shift from the west-southwest after the passage of the cold front. Sustained winds will increase to 15-20+ mph area-wide through the mid to late morning hours, with widespread wind gusts of 35-40 mph. Isolated peak wind gusts over 40 mph will also be possible Friday morning into the afternoon hours. These winds will blow around unsecured outdoor items and make travel challenging for high-profile vehicles.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 20 at 3:03AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Southwest winds will increase this morning with the passage of a strong cold front. Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected this morning into the afternoon before diminishing toward evening. These gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 20 at 4:57AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
In the wake of a cold front, widespread westerly wind gusts of 30-40 mph are expected to continue through this morning and afternoon. These winds will blow around unsecured outdoor items and make travel challenging for high-profile vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued February 20 at 8:29AM EST until February 20 at 2:30PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following county, Lawrence and West Virginia, including the following counties, Boone, Lincoln, Logan, Mingo, Raleigh and Wayne.
WHEN Until 230 PM EST Friday.
IMPACTS Flooding of small rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Creeks and small rivers continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall. Low-water crossings are inundated with water and may not be passable. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 823 AM EST, Doppler radar and area rain gauges indicate between 1 and 1.75 inches of rain have over the past 24 hours. This has resulted in significant runoff leading to strong rises on creeks and small rivers. There are reports of some creeks out of their banks affecting adjacent roads. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the warned area. - Flooding impacts will continue, but no additional rainfall is expected. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Madison, Louisa, Logan, Chapmanville, Fort Gay, Harts, Mount Gay-Shamrock, Holden, Ranger, Spurlockville, Kiahsville, Dunlow, East Lynn Lake, Wharton, Bald Knob and Danville. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Report flooding to the National Weather Service by calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 20 at 10:03AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Strong winds are moving through the area with the passage of a strong cold front. Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph continue through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon before diminishing toward evening. These gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued February 20 at 11:40AM EST until February 20 at 2:30PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following county, Lawrence and West Virginia, including the following counties, Boone, Lincoln, Logan, Mingo, Raleigh and Wayne.
WHEN Until 230 PM EST.
IMPACTS Creeks and small rivers continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall. Flooding of low-lying and flood-prone locations is occurring. Low-water crossings are likely inundated with water and may not be passable. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1134 AM EST, Minor flooding from continued runoff into creeks and small rivers continues, especially in low-lying and flood prone locations. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Madison, Logan, Chapmanville, Fort Gay, Harts, Ranger, Spurlockville, Dunlow, East Lynn Lake, Wharton, and Danville. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Report flooding to the National Weather Service by calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 20 at 12:48PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
Strong winds are moving through the area behind the passage of a cold front. Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph may continue for the rest of the afternoon before diminishing toward evening. These gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued February 20 at 2:11PM EST until February 20 at 4:30PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following county, Lawrence and West Virginia, including the following counties, Boone, Lincoln, Logan, Mingo, Raleigh and Wayne.
WHEN Until 430 PM EST.
IMPACTS Creeks and small rivers continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall. Flooding of low-lying and flood-prone locations is occurring. Low-water crossings are likely inundated with water and may not be passable. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 211 PM EST, Minor flooding from continued runoff into creeks and small rivers continues, especially in low-lying and flood prone locations. While some locations are likely receding, will extend another 2 hours as some locations remain elevated. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Madison, Logan, Chapmanville, Fort Gay, Harts, Ranger, Spurlockville, Dunlow, East Lynn Lake, Wharton, and Danville. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Report flooding to the National Weather Service by calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued February 20 at 2:28PM EST until February 21 at 4:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
...The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Flood Advisory for the following rivers in Kentucky... Kentucky River at Heidelberg affecting Lee County.
WHAT Elevated river levels caused by excessive rainfall are expected.
WHERE Kentucky River at Heidelberg.
WHEN From this afternoon to Saturday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1:45 PM EST Friday the stage was 16.1 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 16.6 feet just after midnight tonight. The river will continue to run high through Saturday afternoon. - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternative route. The next statement will be issued late tonight at 500 AM EST.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 20 at 3:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
Widespread westerly wind gusts of 30-40 mph are expected to continue through this afternoon. These winds will blow around unsecured outdoor items and make travel challenging for high- profile vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued February 20 at 3:34PM EST until February 22 at 5:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
...The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Flood Advisory for the following rivers in Kentucky... Kentucky River near Ravenna affecting Estill County.
WHAT Elevated river levels caused by excessive rainfall are expected.
WHERE Kentucky River near Ravenna.
WHEN From this afternoon to early Sunday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 3:20 PM EST Friday the stage was 17.0 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.1 feet early Saturday morning. The river will continue to run high through late Saturday night. - Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternative route. The next statement will be issued Saturday morning at 600 AM EST.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Friday, February 20, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Sharp Cold Front: Morning Rain and Gusty Afternoon Winds
A powerful cold front will sweep across Kentucky on Friday, bringing a period of morning rain followed by a dramatic drop in temperatures and gusty winds reaching 45 mph. Conditions will dry out from west to east by the afternoon, but temperatures will continue to fall through the evening.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement exists on the timing of the frontal passage and the non-diurnal temperature trend. Lower confidence remains regarding the exact rainfall totals in the Eastern Coalfields and the intensity of peak wind gusts.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a dry but very windy day for the Purchase area. Temperatures will start in the low 60s before dawn but will crash into the 40s by morning. Wind gusts will be the main story, reaching 35 to 40 mph at times, making it feel significantly colder by the afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunlight will return early as the front passes before sunrise. However, brisk northwest winds will keep it feeling chilly through the day. Temperatures will drop steadily, falling from the 60s into the 40s before noon.
Southwest Pennyrile
A brief shower is possible very early, but most of the day will be dry and sunny. Wind gusts will reach up to 35 mph. Temperatures will peak in the morning and fall through the 50s and 40s during the afternoon.
Barren River
Early morning rain will clear by 9:00 AM, giving way to a sunny but windy afternoon. Wind gusts of 35 mph will combine with falling temperatures to create a raw feeling outdoors.
Louisville Metro
Temperatures in the 60s at breakfast will fall into the 40s by the afternoon. A few light showers are possible before 7:00 AM. Strong winds will gust between 35 and 40 mph through the entire afternoon.
Lincoln Trail
A soggy morning commute is possible with rain ending by mid-morning. It will be very windy with gusts over 35 mph. Afternoon temperatures will stay in the 40s despite some sun breaking through.
Lake Cumberland
Expect a wet morning with nearly half an inch of rain possible. Conditions will improve by afternoon as skies begin to clear. Windy conditions will persist all day, making the lake waters choppy with gusts to 35 mph.
Northern Kentucky
Expect light rain early, but the wind is the primary concern. Gusts could reach 40 to 45 mph during the morning and afternoon. Temperatures will hover in the 30s by evening, with wind chills making it feel like the 20s.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see rain showers through the morning commute. The afternoon will be dry but very windy. Gusts over 40 mph are likely across the open terrain, creating difficult driving for high-profile vehicles.
Bluegrass Foothills
Nearly an inch of rain is expected to fall through mid-morning. It will be a soggy start to the day for areas near Richmond and Berea. Winds will pick up as the rain ends, with gusts approaching 40 mph.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain will be heavy at times during the morning commute. Rainfall totals around 0.75 inches are likely. As the rain moves out, very strong wind gusts up to 45 mph are expected this afternoon.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect rain to linger through at least midday in the mountains. Windy conditions will persist all day, especially on ridge tops. Skies will clear by late afternoon, but it will remain blustery and much cooler.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the frontal boundary slows its eastward progression by even two hours, rainfall totals in Eastern Kentucky could exceed 1.25 inches, and the coldest air could catch lingering moisture in Northern Kentucky for a brief period of non-accumulating snow flurries.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the mid-level 'dry slot' arrives faster as suggested by the Euro, rainfall totals will struggle to reach 0.25 inches for most of the state, and wind gusts will remain below 35 mph as mixing depths are restricted.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Post-Frontal Momentum Transfer
GFS and NAM forecast widespread 40-45 mph gusts behind the front, while the Euro remains more conservative with 25-30 mph peaks.
Why GFS Wins
The GFS handles the mixing depth in strong cold-air advection regimes more accurately, capturing the transfer of energy from the 850mb jet to the surface.
The Eastern Rainfall Dispute
The NAM and GEM suggest heavy rainfall (0.75-1.00") along the frontal boundary in Eastern KY, while the GFS and Euro are significantly drier (0.20-0.30").
Why NAM Wins
The NAM's superior resolution of frontogenetical forcing and high PWAT values (near 1.0") along the leading edge of the cold air mass usually verifies better in high-contrast frontal passages.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.