Thursday, February 19
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 19 at 3:47AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Widespread fog has developed this morning. Some patchy dense fog is also being observed. Motorists are advised to prepare for quickly changing conditions with visibilities reduced below a quarter mile in some locations. The fog will slowly improve by mid to late morning. When encountering fog, be sure to turn on low beam headlights, slow down, and increase following distance.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 19 at 8:05AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
At 805 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Quod, or near Salyersville, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Paintsville, Salyersville, Haleburg, Florress, Oaklawn Estates, Fitz, Oil Springs, Bethanna, Gifford, Falcon, Logville, Wonnie, Kernie, Meally, Collista, West Van Lear, White Oak, Williamsport, Offutt, and Elna. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 67 and 76. Kentucky Highway 3 in Johnson County U.S. Highway 23 in Johnson County between mile markers 1 and 16.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Tornado Watch
Tornado Watch issued February 19 at 1:21PM EST until February 19 at 9:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 10 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY SCOTT WASHINGTON IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 26 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY ANDERSON BOYLE BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT FRANKLIN GRAYSON GREEN HANCOCK HARDIN HART HENRY JEFFERSON LARUE MARION MEADE MERCER NELSON OHIO OLDHAM SHELBY SPENCER TAYLOR TRIMBLE WASHINGTON IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BUTLER EDMONSON THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ABERDEEN, ADYEVILLE, ADYEVILLE, ALLENDALE, ALTON, ATHERTONVILLE, BAIZETOWN, BARDSTOWN, BARDSTOWN JUNCTION, BEAVER DAM, BECKS MILL, BECKS MILL, BEDA, BEDFORD, BELLEVIEW, BELLEVIEW, BLACK GNAT, BOHON, BRANDENBURG, BROWNSBORO, BROWNSTOWN, BROWNSTOWN, BRYANTSBURG, BRYANTSBURG, BUCKNER, BUFFALO, CAMPBELLSVILLE, CANMER, CANTON, CANTON, CECILIA, CEMENTVILLE, CEMENTVILLE, CHAMBERSBURG, CHAMBERSBURG, CHINA, CHINA, CLARK REGIONAL AIRPORT, CLERMONT, CORYDON, CORYDON, COXS CREEK, CROMWELL, DANVILLE, DEATSVILLE, DUBOIS, DUBOIS, DUKES, DUNBAR, EDWARDSVILLE, EDWARDSVILLE, ELIZABETHTOWN, ELK CREEK, ELK HORN, EMINENCE, ENGLISH, EVANS LANDING, EVANS LANDING, EXIE, FLAHERTY, FLOYDS KNOBS, FLOYDS KNOBS, FORT KNOX, FRANKFORT, FRENCH LICK MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, GARFIELD, GATCHEL, GATCHEL, GLEN DEAN, GLENSBORO, GOSHEN, GOSHEN, GRAEFENBURG, GREENSBURG, HARDINSBURG, HARDYVILLE, HARNED, HARRISONVILLE, HARRODSBURG, HARTFORD, HAWESVILLE, HIGHGROVE, HILLVIEW, HITCHCOCK, HOBSON, HODGENVILLE, HORSE CAVE, HUNTINGBURG AIRPORT, IRELAND, IRELAND, JASPER, JASPER, JEFFERSONVILLE, JEFFERSONVILLE, KESSINGER, KOSSUTH, KOSSUTH, LA GRANGE, LAWRENCEBURG, LEBANON, LEITCHFIELD, LEWISPORT, LITTLE MOUNT, LOGANSPORT, LOUISVILLE, LYONS, MADISON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, MADRID, MAGNOLIA, MARENGO, MARENGO, MAUD, MCDANIELS, MCQUADY, MILLTOWN, MILLTOWN, MILTON, MORGANTOWN, MOUNT WASHINGTON, MULDRAUGH, MUNFORDVILLE, NEW ALBANY, NEW ALBANY, NEW BOSTON, NEW MARKET, PAOLI, PATESVILLE, PAYNEVILLE, PELLVILLE, PEWEE VALLEY, PEYTONA, PIERCE, PRENTISS, QUALITY, RADCLIFF, REX, ROSINE, SALOMA, SAMUELS, SHAKERTOWN, SHELBYVILLE, SHEPHERDSVILLE, SLIGO, SOUTHVILLE, SPRINGFIELD, STEPHENSBURG, SUMMERSVILLE, SYRIA, TAYLORSVILLE, TELL CITY, TERRY, TYRONE, UNO, WADDY, WAKEFIELD, WATERFORD, WESTPORT, WHITE CLOUD, WHITE CLOUD, YOUNGS CREEK, AND YUMA.
Tornado Watch
Tornado Watch issued February 19 at 12:21PM CST until February 19 at 8:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 10 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST /9 PM EST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS EDWARDS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN SALINE WABASH WAYNE WHITE IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA POSEY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA GIBSON PIKE SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY CALDWELL CRITTENDEN DAVIESS HENDERSON HOPKINS MCLEAN MUHLENBERG UNION WEBSTER THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALBION, BOONVILLE, CALHOUN, CARMI, DIXON, ELIZABETHTOWN, EVANSVILLE, FAIRFIELD, FORT BRANCH, GRAYVILLE, GREENVILLE, HARRISBURG, HENDERSON, MADISONVILLE, MARION, MCLEANSBORO, MORGANFIELD, MOUNT CARMEL, OWENSBORO, PETERSBURG, POSEYVILLE, PRINCETON, ROCKPORT, SHAWNEETOWN, AND WEST SALEM.
Tornado Watch
Tornado Watch issued February 19 at 1:21PM EST until February 19 at 9:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 10 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA DEARBORN FRANKLIN OHIO RIPLEY SWITZERLAND IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY CARROLL GALLATIN OWEN THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF AURORA, BATESVILLE, BRIGHT, BROOKVILLE, CARROLLTON, DILLSBORO, GREENDALE, HIDDEN VALLEY, LAWRENCEBURG, MILAN, OSGOOD, OWENTON, RISING SUN, VERSAILLES, VEVAY, AND WARSAW.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 19 at 1:47PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
At 147 PM EST/1247 PM CST/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11 miles southwest of Carefree Town, moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD Penny size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Mount Pleasant, Leopold, Leavenworth, Alton, New Amsterdam, Roberta, Concordia, Battletown, Fredonia, and White Cloud.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EST/800 PM CST/ for south central Indiana...and central Kentucky.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued February 19 at 1:51PM EST until February 20 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Gallia and Lawrence OH, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Barbour, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Randolph, Northwest Webster, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Randolph, Southeast Webster, Taylor, Upshur, Wayne and Wirt.
WHEN Through Friday morning.
IMPACTS Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Area creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more heavy rain. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Quick hitting rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.00 inch are expected within strong thunderstorms. Combined with already elevated streamflows, this poses a threat for localized flooding. Additionally, elevations above 3,500 feet will see the added hydrologic element of snow and ice melt further contributing to river and stream rises. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 19 at 1:12PM CST by NWS Louisville KY
At 112 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8 miles north of Tell City, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD Penny size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Tell City, Mount Pleasant, Leopold, Troy, Ranger, Bristow, Oriole, Celina, Lilly Dale, and Terry.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for south central Indiana...and central Kentucky.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued February 19 at 2:33PM EST until February 20 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Gallia and Lawrence OH, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Barbour, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Randolph, Northwest Webster, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Randolph, Southeast Webster, Taylor, Upshur, Wayne and Wirt.
WHEN Through Friday morning.
IMPACTS Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Area creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more heavy rain. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Quick hitting rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.00 inch are expected within strong thunderstorms. Combined with already elevated streamflows, this poses a threat for localized flooding. Additionally, elevations above 3,500 feet will see the added hydrologic element of snow and ice melt further contributing to river and stream rises. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Tornado Watch
Tornado Watch issued February 19 at 6:01PM EST until February 19 at 9:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
TORNADO WATCH 10 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA CRAWFORD DUBOIS JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY SCOTT WASHINGTON IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY HANCOCK THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ADYEVILLE, ADYEVILLE, BECKS MILL, BECKS MILL, BELLEVIEW, BELLEVIEW, BROWNSTOWN, BROWNSTOWN, BRYANTSBURG, BRYANTSBURG, CANTON, CANTON, CHAMBERSBURG, CHAMBERSBURG, CHINA, CHINA, DUBOIS, DUBOIS, DUKES, ENGLISH, FRENCH LICK MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, GATCHEL, GATCHEL, GOSHEN, GOSHEN, HAWESVILLE, HITCHCOCK, HUNTINGBURG AIRPORT, IRELAND, IRELAND, JASPER, JASPER, KOSSUTH, KOSSUTH, LEWISPORT, MADISON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, MARENGO, MARENGO, MILLTOWN, MILLTOWN, PAOLI, PATESVILLE, PELLVILLE, SYRIA, TELL CITY, TERRY, AND YOUNGS CREEK.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Thursday, February 19, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Unseasonably Warm and Windy with Passing Showers
A powerful warm-sector airmass will surge across Kentucky on Thursday, bringing April-like warmth and gusty winds to the Commonwealth. Temperatures will climb into the 60s and lower 70s as a potent low-level jet transports deep Gulf moisture northward. Waves of rain showers will traverse the state throughout the day, though no severe weather or wintry precipitation is expected.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the unseasonable warmth and the lack of wintry weather. Moderate confidence regarding the exact magnitude of wind gusts and the precise timing of the rain-to-dry transitions in Northern KY.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a very warm day with temperatures reaching near 67 degrees. Wind gusts will increase throughout the afternoon, occasionally reaching 40 mph or higher. Showers will be scattered through the day, with total rainfall amounts around 0.1 inches.
Northwest Pennyrile
Temperatures will reach the mid-60s today. Rain is most likely in the afternoon and evening, with accumulations near 0.15 inches. Windy conditions will develop tonight with gusts over 35 mph.
Southwest Pennyrile
Temperatures will soar into the lower 70s, making it one of the warmest days of the season. Rain showers will be light, totaling around 0.15 inches. Wind gusts will be noticeable, peaking near 35 mph in the afternoon.
Barren River
Highs near 70 degrees are expected today. Rainfall will be most common in the morning, with totals around 0.25 inches. Expect breezy conditions all day with gusts up to 30 mph.
Louisville Metro
Most of the day will be dry but cloudy and warm, with highs in the upper 60s. Rain arrives during the evening commute. Expect around 0.2 inches of rain by midnight with gusty winds tonight.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a round of rain this morning and another steady rain tonight. Temperatures will reach the mid-60s. Accumulations of rain will be around 0.25 inches.
Lake Cumberland
Rain will be fairly steady today with accumulations reaching near 0.4 inches. Highs will be in the mid-60s. Breezy conditions will persist from the morning through the evening.
Northern Kentucky
While the afternoon will be warm and dry, heavy rain is expected to move in this evening. Highs will reach the mid-60s. Expect around 0.35 inches of rain, mostly after sunset.
Inner Bluegrass
Cloudy and warm during the day with highs in the mid-60s. A steady rain moves in tonight, accumulating around 0.25 inches. Winds will pick up this evening with gusts to 35 mph.
Bluegrass Foothills
It will be a wet day with multiple rounds of rain totaling near 0.5 inches. Highs will reach the mid-60s. Expect soggy conditions for both the morning and evening commutes.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain and drizzle will be common throughout the day. Accumulations around 0.3 inches are expected. Temperatures will be much warmer than usual, with highs in the mid-60s.
Southeast Kentucky
Rain will be most persistent in the mountains today, with totals around 0.55 inches. Highs will be in the low 60s. Water may collect on some valley roads, but no major flooding is expected.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the Low-Level Jet mixes more efficiently to the surface, wind gusts could exceed 45-50 mph in Western and Central Kentucky. Additionally, localized orographic enhancement in the Eastern Coalfields could push rainfall totals over 1.0 inch.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If mid-level dry air (as hinted in the NAM) arrives earlier, the afternoon could see significant dry slots with only scattered sprinkles, and wind gusts could remain capped at 30 mph if cloud cover limits boundary layer mixing.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Louisville/Northern KY Rainfall Timing
GFS and Euro show light rain arriving by midday, while the NAM and GEM hold off meaningful saturation and precipitation until after 18Z.
Why BLEND Wins
While the GFS likely suffers from 'Phantom Precip' (smearing light totals), the deep moisture profiles suggest at least some sprinkles before the main evening wave. A blend accurately captures the low-impact start followed by a wet evening.
The Wind Gust Discrepancy
NAM is significantly more aggressive with surface wind gusts (40-45mph) compared to the Euro and GEM (20-30mph) due to higher resolution of the LLJ momentum transfer.
Why NAM Wins
In high-shear, low-CAPE environments with a strong LLJ, the NAM's finer vertical resolution typically captures the downward momentum transfer of the jet more accurately than coarser global models.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.