Thursday, February 12
Morning Flurries North; Dry and Seasonable Elsewhere
A weak, moisture-starved clipper system will move across the Ohio Valley during the morning hours, bringing a few light snow flurries to North-Central Kentucky. Most of the Commonwealth will remain dry with a mix of sun and clouds and temperatures near seasonal averages.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in a dry day for Southern KY, but significant disagreement between the high-resolution NAM and global models regarding the presence of morning snow flurries in the northern counties.
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Purchase Area
Expect a chilly start to the day followed by plenty of sunshine. It will be the warmest part of the state, reaching 50 degrees by the afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
A mix of sun and clouds is expected today. No precipitation will fall as high pressure remains in control.
Southwest Pennyrile
A very pleasant winter day with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Temperatures will reach the upper 40s.
Barren River
Plenty of sunshine for Bowling Green with a seasonal high near 48 degrees. It will be a calm day overall.
Louisville Metro
Watch for a few snow flurries during the morning hours, mainly before 11:00 AM. Accumulations are expected to be around 0.1 inches, primarily on grassy surfaces.
Lincoln Trail
Temperatures start in the 20s. Expect mostly cloudy skies for much of the day but no precipitation.
Lake Cumberland
A seasonal day with clouds and sun. Highs will stay in the mid-40s with no rain or snow.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a few snowflakes during the morning hours. It will be a cold day with highs struggling to reach 40 degrees.
Inner Bluegrass
A quick dusting of snow is possible between 7:00 AM and noon. Expect accumulations around 0.1 inches on cold surfaces before it dries out in the afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
Clouds will dominate the morning hours with temperatures in the 20s. No snow is expected for Richmond or Berea.
Northeast Kentucky
Thick clouds will linger through most of the day in Ashland and Morehead. Highs will stay near 39 degrees.
Southeast Kentucky
A mix of clouds and sun with temperatures reaching the low 40s. No rain or snow is expected.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The NAM verifies with slightly deeper moisture, resulting in a widespread dusting (0.1-0.3") of snow across the I-64 corridor that coats grassy surfaces and rooftops through noon.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Dry air in the lowest 2km (as suggested by the GFS/Euro) completely evaporates any falling snow, resulting in nothing more than a few 'cloud flakes' or high-base clouds with no surface accumulation.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Morning Thermal Floor
GEM and GFS forecast widespread teens for morning lows due to clear-sky radiational cooling, while NAM and Euro keep lows in the mid-20s due to expected cloud cover.
Why EURO Wins
Cloud cover associated with the incoming shortwave will likely disrupt ideal radiational cooling across the northern two-thirds of the state, favoring the slightly warmer Euro/NAM solution.
The Clipper Conundrum
The NAM is aggressive with a saturated layer in the Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ), producing light snow flurries for Louisville and Lexington, while the Global models (GFS/ECMWF/GEM) maintain a dry profile below 700mb.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically handles shallow, mesoscale features like clipper-driven flurries better than global models within a 24-hour window. Its vertical resolution is superior for detecting the thin saturated layer necessary for snow production.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.