Thursday, February 12
Grey Skies and Seasonal Chill; Dry Conditions Prevail
High pressure will maintain dry but predominantly cloudy conditions across the Commonwealth. Chilly temperatures will persist, particularly in the northern and eastern valleys, while the southwest sees a slight warming trend.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high for a dry day statewide, but slightly lower regarding the exact extent of cloud cover and the potential for non-accumulating flurries in the Northeast on Day 6.
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Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a dry day with persistent clouds and temperatures reaching the upper 40s. No rain or snow is expected.
Northwest Pennyrile
Overcast skies will dominate the day around Owensboro, but roads will stay dry with highs in the mid-40s.
Southwest Pennyrile
A quiet day for Hopkinsville with temperatures warming into the upper 40s under a blanket of clouds.
Barren River
Expect a calm and cloudy day for Bowling Green with highs near 47 degrees. No precipitation is forecast.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see grey skies throughout the day. Highs will stay around 41 degrees with light winds.
Lincoln Trail
Clouds will linger over the region, but no rain or snow is expected. Highs will reach the lower 40s.
Lake Cumberland
Expect overcast conditions around Somerset. Highs will be in the mid-40s with dry roads.
Northern Kentucky
A cold, overcast day is in store for Northern Kentucky. Highs will struggle to reach 40 degrees.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see a grey but dry day with highs near 40 degrees. No snow accumulation is expected.
Bluegrass Foothills
Cloudy skies will prevail for Richmond and Berea. Temperatures will peak in the low 40s.
Northeast Kentucky
A few flurries are possible in Ashland and Morehead during the morning, but no accumulation is expected. It will stay cloudy and cold.
Southeast Kentucky
Overcast skies will persist across the mountains, but dry air will keep the area free of rain or snow.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
A slightly stronger mid-level ripple could produce scattered flurries across the northern half of the state, though dry surface air would still limit any accumulation to a trace.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the low-level moisture layer is thinner than modeled, the afternoon could see more substantial clearing, allowing temperatures in the southwest to reach the mid-50s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Northeast Flurry Feud
The GEM suggests a high probability of light precipitation in Northeast Kentucky driven by a weak shortwave, while the Euro remains almost entirely dry.
Why UNCERTAIN Wins
While the GEM captures the shortwave energy, the significant dry air in the sub-cloud layer (1000-850mb) favors the drier Euro outcome for ground impacts.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.