Wednesday, February 11
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 10 at 8:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
At 759 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Reynoldsville, or 7 miles northwest of Owingsville, moving east at 55 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Morehead, Owingsville, Marshall, Sharpsburg, Salt Lick, Ramey, Wyoming, Elliottville, Peasticks, Triplett, Flat Creek, Christy, Odessa, Hilda, Bourbon Furnace, Pebble, Sharkey, Muses Mills, Bethel, and Oakley. THIS INCLUDES Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers 115 and 149.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued February 11 at 6:00AM EST until February 11 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
...The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a Flood Advisory for the following rivers in Kentucky... Stoner Creek at Paris affecting Bourbon County. .Rain and snow melt overnight has caused the river to rise.
WHAT Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is expected.
WHERE Stoner Creek at Paris.
WHEN From early this morning to this evening.
IMPACTS At 18.0 feet, Water floods a few low roads on right bank of creek. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 5:15 AM EST Wednesday the stage was 17.1 feet. - Bankfull stage is 18.0 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 17.9 feet late this morning. - Action stage is 16.0 feet. - Flood stage is 18.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternative route. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/lmk. The next statement will be issued by this afternoon at 1245 PM EST.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 11 at 7:10AM EST by NWS Charleston WV
Metro 911 center has received reports of black ice affecting untreated roads and sidewalks. Hazardous travel conditions will be possible along area roadways, especially secondary roadways. Motorists are advised to use caution while traveling this morning, slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Early Rain Exits for a Chilly, Sunny Afternoon
A quick-moving cold front will sweep across Kentucky during the overnight and early morning hours, bringing light to moderate rain primarily to southern and eastern regions. Rapid clearing will follow from west to east by midday, ushering in a much colder, drier airmass with breezy northwest winds. Afternoon temperatures will struggle to recover despite increasing sunshine.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists in the precipitation type remaining strictly liquid and the overall timing of the cold front. Minor uncertainty remains regarding the exact rainfall totals in the mountains and the speed of cloud clearing in the northeast.
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Purchase Area
Expect a bright but chilly day across the Purchase. Any overnight rain will be long gone by sunrise, leaving clear blue skies for the entire day. Temperatures will reach the upper 40s, but a steady northwest breeze will make it feel much cooler. Grab the heavier coat!
Northwest Pennyrile
A cold but sunny day is in store. After a morning near the freezing mark, afternoon highs will struggle to reach the mid-40s. Winds will be noticeable from the northwest, keeping the air feeling crisp through the afternoon.
Southwest Pennyrile
A few light showers are possible before sunrise, but the rest of the day will be bright and clear. Highs will reach the upper 40s under full sun, though northwesterly winds will remain gusty at times.
Barren River
Rain will be around through the pre-dawn hours, ending by the time the morning commute starts. Expect clearing skies by midday. Afternoon temperatures will reach the low 50s, making this one of the milder spots in the state despite the breeze.
Louisville Metro
Morning clouds will hang over the city, but you can expect a sunny and crisp afternoon. It will stay dry all day. Highs will only reach the mid-40s, so it's a good day for a winter coat if you're out and about.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a dry and increasingly sunny day. Any morning clouds will quickly vanish, leaving a chilly but bright afternoon. Temperatures will reach the mid-40s, but a biting northwest wind will make it feel colder on the hills.
Lake Cumberland
Rain showers will be common throughout the morning, likely wrapping up by lunchtime. Skies will begin to clear by late afternoon. Temperatures will spend most of the day in the 40s. Total rain accumulations should be around 0.15 inches.
Northern Kentucky
It's a grey and cold day for Northern Kentucky. Clouds will linger for much of the day, with temperatures barely climbing into the 30s. While it will stay dry, the wind chill will make it feel like the 20s all day long.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a cloudy start to the day with a cold northwest breeze. Clouds should begin to break for some afternoon sunshine. Highs will reach the low 40s, but it will feel much colder. No rain is expected.
Bluegrass Foothills
A few light rain showers or sprinkles are possible early this morning. The rest of the day will be dry but mostly cloudy. Highs will stay in the low 40s with a chilly wind making it feel more like the 20s.
Northeast Kentucky
A typical winter day with a deep blanket of clouds staying locked over the valleys. It will be a dry but very chilly day. Temperatures will struggle to reach 40 degrees and will drop quickly after sunset.
Southeast Kentucky
Rain will be fairly steady through the first half of the day, with accumulations around a quarter of an inch. Clouds will be slow to leave the mountains, but it should dry out by late afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid-40s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The GEM scenario: If the front slows slightly and orographic lift maximizes in the Southeast Coalfields, rain totals could approach 0.50 inches with clouds lingering through sunset, keeping temperatures even lower.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The NAM scenario: A faster, moisture-starved front leaves most of the state with less than 0.10 inches of rain and clear skies by 9 AM, allowing for a slightly better (though still chilly) temperature recovery in the afternoon.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The QPF Disconnect
A significant disagreement exists regarding the total liquid precipitation in the Southeast. The GEM suggests a soaking 0.50 inch rain event, while the NAM and GFS keep totals much leaner, near 0.15 inches.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro and GFS provide a more realistic middle ground. The GEM tends to over-forecast orographic enhancement in shallow moisture setups like this one, and the NAM is likely too dry given the strength of the jet support.
The Post-Frontal Stratus Battle
Models disagree on how quickly the post-frontal cloud deck (stratus) will clear in Northern and Northeast Kentucky.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically handles low-level moisture trapping and subsidence inversions better than global models. It correctly identifies the 'Cold Air Damming' effect in the eastern valleys.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.