Wednesday, February 11
Soggy Wednesday: Widespread Rain and a Sharp Evening Chill
Kentucky will experience a soggy transition day on Wednesday as a progressive low-pressure system transits the Ohio Valley. Widespread rain will dominate the morning and early afternoon hours, followed by a sharp cold front that will sweep across the state, bringing falling temperatures and clearing skies by late evening.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is limited by a Day 6 forecast range and a critical timing disagreement between the GEM and ECMWF regarding whether the rain occurs on Wednesday or ends prior to the period.
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Purchase Area
Rain will be most persistent during the morning hours, with about half an inch of accumulation expected. Temperatures will reach the mid-50s early before falling sharply through the afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a soggy start to the day with rain likely through the morning commute. Temperatures will cool quickly after lunchtime, ending in the 30s by evening.
Southwest Pennyrile
Multiple rounds of rain will pass through, with the highest totals around half an inch. It will be a breezy day with temperatures staying mild until after dark.
Barren River
A wet and windy day is in store for Bowling Green. Expect nearly two-thirds of an inch of rain and wind gusts up to 25 mph.
Louisville Metro
Rain will be common during the first half of the day, totaling around 0.3 inches. It will turn much colder late Wednesday night.
Lincoln Trail
Showers and breezy conditions will last through the morning and early afternoon. Expect around a third of an inch of rain.
Lake Cumberland
This region will see the heaviest rainfall in the state, with totals around 0.75 inches. Travel may be messy due to ponding on roads.
Northern Kentucky
Light rain and persistent clouds will make for a damp day. Highs will only reach the mid-40s before dropping near freezing tonight.
Inner Bluegrass
Steady rain through the morning will accumulate to nearly half an inch. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 40s before the evening cold snap.
Bluegrass Foothills
Rain will develop in the morning and persist through the afternoon. Expect around 0.4 inches of rain and breezy conditions.
Northeast Kentucky
Light rain will be consistent throughout the afternoon. It will be a cold, damp day with highs in the mid-40s.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect nearly half an inch of rain today. Temperatures will stay relatively mild in the upper 40s until the front arrives late tonight.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the trailing cold air catches the moisture plume faster than modeled, a brief window of a wintry mix or light snow could occur in Northern Kentucky and the Northeast before precipitation ends.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the faster progression of the ECMWF verifies, the rain will exit the state before sunrise on Wednesday, leaving the Commonwealth with a mostly dry, cloudy, and cool afternoon.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Timing Tug-of-War
A significant disagreement exists regarding the exit speed of the precipitation. The GEM model holds a soaking rain across the state through much of the day Wednesday, while the ECMWF suggests the system clears the eastern border before midday.
Why GEM Wins
The GEM provides a more robust and physically consistent representation of the 100kt jet streak and the associated shortwave dynamics, which typically slow the progression of surface boundaries compared to the drier, faster ECMWF solution.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.