Friday, February 13
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Friday, February 13, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Morning Icy Glaze North; Sunny and Milder Statewide
A strong warming trend begins across Kentucky this Friday, though a narrow corridor of the northern state faces a brief morning icing threat. High pressure shifting east will allow southerly winds to return, scything through a chilly morning to produce a pleasant afternoon.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high for a statewide warming trend but low regarding the timing and existence of trace precipitation in the north, as the NAM is a wet outlier compared to global dry consensus.
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Purchase Area
Enjoy a beautiful, sunny day as temperatures climb from a chilly morning into the mid-50s. High pressure will move east, allowing for a gentle breeze and clear skies.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect full sunshine and a significant temperature rebound after a freezing start. Afternoon highs will reach the lower 50s.
Southwest Pennyrile
A very chilly morning in the 20s will give way to a mild afternoon with highs in the mid-50s under sunny skies.
Barren River
Temperatures in the 20s at daybreak will rise quickly to the low 50s. Skies will remain clear and sunny throughout the day.
Louisville Metro
The city will see a cold start, but sunshine will bring highs to the low 50s. Winds will be light, making for a pleasant end to the week.
Lincoln Trail
Expect clear skies and light winds today. After a cold start near 27, afternoon temperatures will reach the low 50s.
Lake Cumberland
A very cold start in the mid-20s will give way to sunshine and a high near 51. No rain or snow is expected.
Northern Kentucky
Caution is advised early this morning. A trace glaze of ice is possible on bridges between 6 AM and Noon. Conditions improve rapidly this afternoon with highs near 48.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a frosty start with temperatures in the mid-20s, followed by a sunny afternoon with highs reaching 49 degrees.
Bluegrass Foothills
A very cold morning will lead into a sunny and tranquil afternoon. Highs will be just under 50 degrees with light winds.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect a cold morning in the low 20s. Sunshine will help us recover to the mid-40s by the afternoon. A few clouds are possible early.
Southeast Kentucky
Morning lows in the lower 20s will give way to a crisp, sunny afternoon. No precipitation is expected in the mountains.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' scenario involves the NAM's moisture depth verifying perfectly, resulting in a thin glaze of ice (up to 0.03") on bridges and overpasses in the Northern Kentucky and Northeast regions during the morning commute, potentially causing localized travel delays.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' scenario sees the dry low-level air (Virga risk) noted by the GFS and Euro winning out entirely, resulting in no measurable precipitation and a perfectly sunny, albeit cold, start to the day statewide.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Radiational Cooling Floor
GEM is significantly colder with morning lows (mid-teens) compared to the GFS and Euro (mid-20s).
Why GEM Wins
GEM historically captures the efficiency of radiational cooling in Kentucky's valleys and sinkholes under high pressure better than global GFS/Euro.
The Northern Icing Conflict
The NAM resolves a shallow moisture layer and weak ascent associated with a shortwave that the coarser GFS/Euro/GEM ignore, leading to a trace freezing rain threat in NKY.
Why NAM Wins
Mesoscale resolution is typically superior at capturing the shallow thermal boundaries and weak omega needed for trace freezing drizzle events in cold air damming scenarios.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.