Friday, February 13
Frigid Morning Thaw with Late-Night Rain in Western KY
A cold start with a hard freeze will give way to a seasonably mild afternoon as high pressure exits. Increasing clouds will lead to light rain showers for Western Kentucky after sunset, while the rest of the state stays dry.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on afternoon temperature recovery, but moderate disagreement on the timing of evening precipitation arrival and the intensity of the morning hard freeze.
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Purchase Area
A cold morning will transition into a mild afternoon with highs in the mid-50s. Light rain showers will move into the area after 6 PM.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a dry day with a cold start. Temperatures will warm nicely into the low 50s before clouds thicken late tonight.
Southwest Pennyrile
A cold morning gives way to a mild afternoon with highs in the mid-50s. Light rain will move through between 7 PM and midnight.
Barren River
Milder air returns today with highs in the 50s. While most of the day is dry, a few light showers are possible after 8 PM.
Louisville Metro
A cold start in the mid-20s will give way to a pleasant afternoon with highs reaching 50 degrees under partly cloudy skies.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a dry day with temperatures returning to the low 50s. Skies will start clear and become cloudy by late evening.
Lake Cumberland
Temperatures will start below freezing but climb into the low 50s under increasing afternoon cloud cover.
Northern Kentucky
A cold morning in the low 20s will give way to a sunny and comfortable afternoon in the high 40s.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a sunny day with temperatures reaching nearly 50 degrees after a cold start in the mid-20s.
Bluegrass Foothills
A frosty morning leads to a sunny afternoon with highs in the upper 40s. Clouds arrive late.
Northeast Kentucky
A very cold morning in the mid-20s, but sunshine will bring temperatures back into the mid-40s.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a dry and sunny day after a cold start in the 20s. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 40s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The shortwave energy arrives faster and stronger, allowing rain to spread as far east as I-65 by midnight with totals exceeding 0.15 inches in the far west.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The significant dry layer in the low levels holds firm, resulting in widespread virga with no measurable precipitation reaching the ground despite radar echoes.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Morning Low-Level Chill
The GEM is significantly more aggressive with radiational cooling, bringing temperatures into the teens across the Bluegrass and Northeast KY, while the ECMWF keeps most areas in the mid-to-upper 20s.
Why GEM Wins
The GEM better captures the efficiency of radiational cooling in valley locations under a 1032mb ridge axis with very low PWATs.
Return Flow Precip Timing
GEM introduces measurable rain into Western Kentucky as early as 18Z-21Z, whereas the ECMWF maintains a dry profile until well after midnight.
Why UNCERTAIN Wins
Moisture return in these setups often battles an antecedent dry air mass; a blend is used to account for the virga risk.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.