Tuesday, February 10
Spring-Like Surge Followed by Late-Night Sprinkles
An unseasonably warm air mass will surge across Kentucky on Tuesday, with temperatures climbing 20 to 30 degrees above morning lows. While most of the day will be dry and breezy, a weak weather system will bring a few light rain showers to the western and northern counties late in the evening and overnight.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in a significant temperature warm-up. Lower confidence in precipitation reaching the surface due to substantial dewpoint depressions below 700mb across the eastern half of the state.
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Purchase Area
Residents can look forward to a spring-like day with temperatures soaring into the upper 60s. After a beautiful afternoon, clouds will increase, leading to scattered light rain showers moving in after 6 PM.
Northwest Pennyrile
A pleasant day with highs in the mid-60s. Expect a few light rain showers to pass through between sunset and midnight, though totals will be very light.
Southwest Pennyrile
Highs will approach 70 degrees under mostly sunny skies for much of the day. A few spotty showers are possible late tonight, but most areas will remain dry.
Barren River
Enjoy the mid-60s today. It will be breezy with south winds gusting to 25 mph. While clouds increase late, any rain will stay very light and spotty.
Louisville Metro
After a cold start, the metro will warm into the upper 50s. Very light rain or sprinkles are possible after 9 PM, but will not impact travel.
Lincoln Trail
Sunny skies will help temperatures reach the lower 60s. Expect a dry day overall, with just a few clouds moving in by evening.
Lake Cumberland
A beautiful February day with highs in the low 60s. The region will stay dry through the evening commute.
Northern Kentucky
Temperatures will jump from the 20s in the morning to the upper 50s by afternoon. A few light showers arrive after dark.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see a windy afternoon with highs near 60. A few light rain showers are possible late tonight.
Bluegrass Foothills
Enjoy the sunshine and lower 60s today. While clouds increase tonight, rain is unlikely to reach the ground.
Northeast Kentucky
A cold morning in the low 20s will give way to a sunny afternoon in the mid-50s. A few light sprinkles are possible late tonight.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a frost-covered morning followed by a crisp, sunny afternoon with highs in the upper 50s. No rain is expected.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level moisture profile saturates faster and the shortwave energy is more concentrated, light rain could total near 0.10 inches for the northern half of the state, dampening roads for the Wednesday morning commute.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry air at the surface remains as stubborn as the GEM suggests, the evening showers will fail to reach the ground entirely, resulting in nothing more than an overcast sky and a few sprinkles.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Low-Level Moisture Disconnect
The GFS and Euro suggest that despite a dry start, the column will saturate sufficiently for light rain. The GEM remains bone-dry, showing the moisture return being shunted too far south and west to produce measurable rain in Kentucky.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides a superior middle-ground, acknowledging the virga risk but correctly identifying isentropic lift on the 295K-300K surfaces which typically overcomes shallow dry layers in this pattern.
Eastern Valley Cold Thaw
Models disagree on how quickly the morning inversions in the Coalfields will break. GEM suggests a frigid start in the teens, while GFS is over 10 degrees warmer.
Why GEM Wins
GEM is historically more accurate at resolving radiational cooling and cold-air damming in the eastern Kentucky valleys during high-pressure departures.
Celestial Almanac
Last Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.