Tuesday, February 10
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 9 at 9:25PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
Mild temperatures this past afternoon caused notable snow melt across the region, with some lingering wet spots on surfaces and roadways. Temperatures may fall below freezing in some locations overnight, and a few patches of black ice are possible if re- freezing occurs. Use caution it traveling, especially if surface look wet. Temperatures are expected to rise above just before or around sunrise, so the morning commute should see a diminishing threat.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 10 at 1:35AM CST by NWS Paducah KY
Locally dense fog is developing in portions of Southeast Missouri shortly after midnight. Patchy dense fog is possible through the early morning in Southeast Missouri and neighboring portions of Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky in areas where surface winds remain calm. Use caution when driving as changes in visibility may be rapid.
Frosty Morning Gives Way to Spring-Like Warmth and Rain
A powerful warm-air advection regime will sweep across Kentucky, driving temperatures from a frosty morning into the 60s and lower 70s by afternoon. A late-day system will bring light rain from west to east.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the significant temperature swing and precipitation type (all rain). Moderate confidence in the exact timing of rain reaching the ground due to initial dry air at the surface.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Enjoy a beautiful afternoon with temperatures hitting 70 degrees. Light rain showers will move in after 6:00 PM.
Northwest Pennyrile
Highs will reach the upper 60s today under breezy conditions. Rain arrives during the evening commute.
Southwest Pennyrile
Temperatures will approach 70 degrees this afternoon. Expect light rain showers to develop after sunset.
Barren River
Temperatures could hit the low 70s today in Bowling Green. Rain chances hold off until very late tonight.
Louisville Metro
Highs will reach the low 60s after a cold morning. A few light raindrops are possible late this evening.
Lincoln Trail
Enjoy highs in the mid-60s before clouds and rain move in for the evening.
Lake Cumberland
A very pleasant day with highs in the mid-60s. Any rain will hold off until after midnight.
Northern Kentucky
Watch for frost this morning, but we will warm to the mid-50s by afternoon. Sprinkles possible late.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will reach the low 60s today. Gusty winds and light rain move in this evening.
Bluegrass Foothills
Enjoy a mild and breezy day. Rain becomes likely after 7:00 PM.
Northeast Kentucky
A frigid morning in the 20s will be replaced by 60-degree warmth. Light rain late.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will stay dry through the evening. Highs will reach the mid-60s with gusty winds.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the low-level dry air saturates faster than modeled, rainfall could reach 0.50" in Western Kentucky, and the 70-degree isotherm could push as far north as the Ohio River.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the moisture remains confined above 8,000 feet (Virga), many central and eastern locations may only see a few sprinkles despite a busy-looking radar.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The 70-Degree Debate
The high-resolution NAM and GEM are forecasting highs in the low 70s for Southern Kentucky, while the GFS and Euro keep highs capped in the upper 60s.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM handles boundary layer mixing and the 'Snow Eater' effect of the Barren River basin better than global models. With clear skies early and a 50kt LLJ, the warm-up will likely exceed global model averages.
The Arrival Arbitrator
The ECMWF is an aggressive outlier, bringing rain into Western Kentucky by early afternoon, while the NAM, GFS, and GEM hold the moisture back until after 6:00 PM.
Why BLEND Wins
Forecast soundings show massive dewpoint depressions in the lowest 2km. The Euro's early precipitation is likely over-forecast due to its handling of sub-cloud evaporation; the drier NAM/GEM/GFS timing for surface arrival is physically more consistent with the dry boundary layer.
Celestial Almanac
Last Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.