Monday, February 9
A Dramatic February Thaw After a Frigid Start
Kentucky will experience a sharp temperature recovery on Monday as arctic high pressure shifts toward the Atlantic coast, opening the door for breezy southwesterly winds. While the day begins with a deep freeze—and even a few flurries in the northeast—afternoon sunshine will push temperatures into the 50s and low 60s for most of the Commonwealth.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high for a dry and sunny afternoon, but low regarding the exact morning minimums and the speed of the temperature recovery in the northern tier.
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Purchase Area
It will be a spectacular afternoon for early February. After a chilly start, sunshine and a southerly breeze will push temperatures into the low 60s. Expect clear skies to continue through the evening with no precipitation expected.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect plenty of sunshine today with temperatures recovering nicely into the mid-50s. Winds will be light, making for a very comfortable afternoon.
Southwest Pennyrile
The region will be among the warmest in the state, with highs reaching 60 degrees. It will be a perfect day to spend time outdoors.
Barren River
After a cold morning in the 20s, a rapid warm-up is expected. Temperatures will climb into the upper 50s under sunny skies.
Louisville Metro
Morning commuters will deal with frosty conditions and temperatures in the 20s, but the afternoon will be bright and seasonal with highs in the mid-40s.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a calm and sunny day. Temperatures will recover from a freeze in the morning to reach the low 50s by late afternoon.
Lake Cumberland
Skies will clear out by mid-morning, leading to a sunny and pleasant afternoon with highs reaching the mid-50s.
Northern Kentucky
Bundle up for a frigid morning with temperatures in the teens and wind chills near 10. The sun will be out, but highs will struggle to reach 40.
Inner Bluegrass
A very cold start in the low 20s will give way to a sunny and brisk afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 40s.
Bluegrass Foothills
It will be a quiet weather day across the foothills with plenty of sunshine. Afternoon highs will settle in the upper 40s.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect a dusting of snow from early morning flurries. These will end by breakfast, leaving behind a cold but sunny afternoon with highs around 41.
Southeast Kentucky
Clouds will linger in the deep valleys early this morning but will fade by noon. The afternoon will be sunny and seasonal with highs near 50.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' Scenario: If the GEM's arctic persistence verifies, the cold pool remains trapped in the northern valleys, keeping highs in the 30s for the Bluegrass and Northern KY, while flurries in the northeast lead to a persistent dusting on grassy surfaces.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' Scenario: If the GFS warming magnitude wins, the thermal recovery is even more aggressive, with 60-degree temperatures surging as far north as Louisville and Lexington under completely clear skies.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Northeast Clipper Moisture
The GEM predicts a weak shortwave will trigger early morning snow showers in the Northeast, while the GFS and Euro maintain a dry column.
Why GEM Wins
The GEM typically resolves these shallow, moisture-starved winter clippers better than global models, which often 'smear' light precipitation out of existence.
The Arctic Scour Conflict
A significant disagreement exists regarding how quickly the morning arctic airmass is scoured out. The GFS is very aggressive with the warm-up, while the GEM holds onto sub-freezing air in the north and east through the early afternoon.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides a realistic middle-ground, acknowledging the strength of the return flow seen in the GFS but respecting the shallow density of the arctic airmass identified by the GEM.
Celestial Almanac
Last Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.