Monday, February 9
Cold Morning Leads to a Milder, Dry Monday Afternoon
A quiet and dry winter day is expected across the Commonwealth as high pressure centers itself over the Appalachians. Residents will wake up to a very cold morning with temperatures in the teens and 20s, but a steady warming trend will develop by the afternoon, particularly in the south and west. No precipitation is expected.
Confidence Assessment
Extremely high agreement across all model suites regarding the lack of precipitation. Minor uncertainty is confined to specific high/low temperature values based on cloud thickness and valley microclimates.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Expect a beautiful day with plenty of sunshine. After a chilly start, temperatures will warm into the upper 50s by late afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
A very cold start near the Ohio River will give way to pleasant sunshine and highs reaching the lower 50s.
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunshine and light southerly winds will make for a very nice afternoon with temperatures reaching near 60 degrees.
Barren River
Bowling Green will see a sharp warm-up today, climbing from a freezing start to a mild afternoon in the upper 50s.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see increasing clouds through the day, which will keep temperatures on the cooler side in the mid-40s.
Lincoln Trail
A very cold morning will lead into a pleasant afternoon with highs reaching the low 50s under partly sunny skies.
Lake Cumberland
Expect a bright and sunny day for the Lake Cumberland area with afternoon temperatures in the mid-50s.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will be the coldest spot in the state today. After a start in the teens, clouds will move in and keep highs in the 30s.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will wake up to wind chills in the single digits. Sunny skies this morning will fade behind clouds this afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a crisp morning followed by a very nice afternoon with temperatures reaching 50 degrees under sunny skies.
Northeast Kentucky
Valley locations will start the day in the lower teens. Sunshine will help us reach the low 40s by the afternoon.
Southeast Kentucky
Cold morning temperatures in the mountains will quickly give way to a pleasant and sunny afternoon in the low 50s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' for warmth occurs if mid-level clouds forecasted by the NAM fail to materialize, allowing maximum solar insolation to push afternoon highs into the low 60s across the Southern Pennyrile and Barren River regions.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' scenario involves a persistent, thick mid-level cloud deck (as suggested by the NAM) coupled with a stubborn morning inversion in the eastern valleys, which would keep highs in the 30s for the northern half of the state.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Cloud Cover Tug-of-War
The NAM is aggressively forecasting a thick mid-level cloud deck (700mb-500mb) moving across the Bluegrass and Northern Kentucky, which would significantly limit afternoon warming. The GFS and GEM favor a much clearer solution with only thin cirrus.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides a realistic middle ground, acknowledging the mid-level moisture seen in satellite trends over the Midwest but keeping the lower column dry enough to allow for decent solar recovery.
Radiational Cooling vs. Boundary Layer Mixing
Disagreement exists on the depth of the morning cold in the Eastern Coalfields. GEM and GFS show deep valley drainage into the low teens, while NAM keeps temperatures in the low 20s.
Why GEM Wins
GEM and GFS better resolve the efficient radiational cooling expected under the core of the high pressure where winds will be completely calm in sheltered valleys.
Celestial Almanac
Last Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.