Sunday, February 8
Light Fluffy Snow North/East; Sunny and Milder West
A split weather day for Kentucky as a weak clipper system brings light snow showers to the northern and eastern regions while arctic high pressure begins to slide south, allowing for sunshine and moderating temperatures in the western half of the state.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the temperature gradient and dry forecast for Western KY; lower confidence in snow totals for the Northeast due to high snow-to-liquid ratios and virga risk.
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Purchase Area
A chilly start will give way to a bright and sunny afternoon. Temperatures will recover nicely, reaching the upper 40s by sunset with light winds.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a very cold morning followed by a sunny afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to reach 40 degrees, and wind chills will remain in the 20s.
Southwest Pennyrile
A frost-covered morning will transition into a sunny afternoon. Highs will reach the mid-40s, providing a slight reprieve from the recent deep freeze.
Barren River
Morning wind chills will be in the teens, so bundle up early. The afternoon will be sunny and clear with temperatures reaching the mid-40s.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will stay mostly cloudy and cold today. Temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark, and while a stray flurry is possible, no snow will stick.
Lincoln Trail
A cloudy morning will give way to some afternoon sun. It will remain cold with highs in the mid-30s. No precipitation is expected.
Lake Cumberland
Expect a cloudy and cold day around Somerset and the lake. Temperatures will remain in the 30s with no rain or snow anticipated.
Northern Kentucky
Light snow showers will move through during the morning hours. Expect accumulations around 0.5 inches on grassy surfaces and potentially slick spots on bridges.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will remain below freezing all day. While you might see some 'ghost snow' on radar, the air is likely too dry for it to hit the ground in any meaningful way.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a gray and very cold day with temperatures barely reaching 30 degrees. No snow accumulation is expected.
Northeast Kentucky
Light, fluffy snow will fall throughout the afternoon. Expect accumulations around 0.8 inches. Use caution on roads as temperatures are well below freezing.
Southeast Kentucky
A very cold but mostly quiet day in the mountains. A few light flurries are possible in the morning, but no significant accumulation is expected.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level moisture profile saturates faster and the dry slot is overcome, light snow could accumulate 1-2 inches across the I-64 corridor and push as far south as the Cumberland Valley.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Low-level dry air remains dominant, resulting in widespread 'virga' where snow is seen on radar but evaporates before reaching the ground, leaving only trace flurries and no measurable accumulation.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
NEKY Accumulation Discrepancy
NAM is the outlier predicting over 1 inch of snow in the Northeast, while global models keep totals under a half-inch.
Why NAM Wins
NAM's superior resolution of Cold Air Damming in the eastern river valleys typically captures the high-ratio snow accumulation better than global models in these narrow-banded scenarios.
The Virga Void
The NAM and GFS show moisture reaching the Bluegrass Core, but soundings indicate a 15-20 degree dewpoint depression in the lowest 3,000 feet, suggesting snow may evaporate before reaching the surface.
Why EURO Wins
The ECMWF handles dry slots and low-level moisture cutoffs with higher historical accuracy in clipper setups, correctly identifying the sub-cloud evaporation risk.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.