Sunday, February 8
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 7 at 1:35PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Confidence is increasing that a narrow band of light snow will impact portions of the area Sunday morning, primarily between 7 AM and noon. Within this band, a quick 1 inch of accumulation is possible; however, locations just outside of this narrow swath will likely see little to no snow. The exact placement of this snowband remains uncertain. Currently, the highest probabilities for 1 inch of accumulation are across northeast Kentucky, generally northeast of a line from Morehead to West Liberty to Prestonsburg and Elkhorn City. Note that this axis of higher accumulation could still shift slightly northeast or southwest as the system develops. Those with travel plans Sunday morning are encouraged to monitor the latest forecasts. Be prepared for rapidly changing visibilities and potentially slick, wintry driving conditions developing over short distances.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 7 at 2:25PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
The latest forecasts suggest that a narrow band of light snow will impact portions of the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky Sunday morning. The time of light snow appears to favor the 700 am to Noon EST timeframe. Snowfall accumulations of a coating to an inch will be possible. Again, this band will be quite narrow and areas outside this swath will likely see little to no snow. The exact placement of this snowband remains uncertain. Currently, the highest probabilities of an inch of snow are across northeast portions of the Bluegrass region including the counties of Scott, Harrison, Bourbon, and Nicholas. This band could shift a little northeast or southwest and could impact areas as far west as western Woodford and Fayette counties. Those with travel plans Sunday morning are encouraged to monitor the latest forecasts. Be prepared for rapidly changing visibilitiesand potentially slick driving conditions.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 7 at 9:25PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
A narrow band of light snow will likely impact portions of the area Sunday morning, primarily between 7 AM and noon. Within this band, a quick 1 inch of accumulation is possible; however, locations just outside of this narrow swath will probably see little to no snow. The exact placement of this snowband remains uncertain, though. Currently, the highest probabilities for 1 inch of accumulation are across northeast Kentucky, generally northeast of a line from Morehead to West Liberty to Prestonsburg and southeast to Elkhorn City. Note that this axis of higher accumulation could still shift slightly northeast or southwest as the system develops. Those with travel plans Sunday morning are encouraged to monitor the latest forecasts. Be prepared for rapidly changing visibilities and potentially slick, wintry driving conditions developing over short distances.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 7 at 9:39PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
The latest forecasts suggest that a narrow band of light snow will impact portions of the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky Sunday morning. The time of light snow appears to favor the 600 am to Noon EST timeframe. Snowfall accumulations of a coating to around a half inch will be possible. Again, this band will be quite narrow and areas outside this swath will likely see little to no snow. The exact placement of this snowband remains uncertain. Currently, the highest probabilities of an inch of snow are across northeast portions of the Bluegrass region including the counties of Scott, Harrison, Bourbon, Fayette, Clark, and Nicholas. Those with travel plans Sunday morning are encouraged to monitor the latest forecasts. Be prepared for rapidly changing visibilitiesand potentially slick driving conditions.
Arctic Grip with Morning Clipper Snow Showers East
A frigid arctic air mass is entrenched across the Commonwealth. A weak clipper-style shortwave will graze Northern and Eastern Kentucky today, bringing light, high-ratio snow showers and flurries. The western half of the state will remain dry but chilly.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the presence of the arctic air mass and the general track of the shortwave; however, the extremely low moisture content makes specific snowfall totals volatile due to sensitivity in snow-to-liquid ratios.
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Purchase Area
A mix of clouds and sun will prevail today. While it will be the warmest part of the state, it will still feel quite cold with temperatures peaking in the mid-40s.
Northwest Pennyrile
Cloudy skies will dominate much of the day with temperatures struggling to reach the upper 30s. No precipitation is expected.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect plenty of clouds but dry conditions. Morning wind chills will be in the teens, warming to the mid-40s by afternoon.
Barren River
Dry conditions will persist across Bowling Green and surrounding areas. Highs will reach the low 40s under cloudy skies.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will likely stay at or below the freezing mark for the entire day. No snow is expected, but the cold will be biting.
Lincoln Trail
Temperatures will stay very cold, barely peaking above freezing. Clouds will linger but no precipitation will fall.
Lake Cumberland
Clouds will keep the lake area very chilly today. Highs in the mid-30s will feel like the teens when you factor in the wind.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a period of light snow showers this morning. Accumulations will be around 0.2 inches, but could create slick spots on untreated roads.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will stay well below freezing today with wind chills near zero in the morning. A few flurries are possible, but no accumulation is expected.
Bluegrass Foothills
A cold day for the foothills with temperatures struggling to reach 31 degrees. Cloudy skies will persist throughout the day.
Northeast Kentucky
Light snow will fall throughout the morning and afternoon. Accumulations around 0.5 inches are expected, making for a powdery dusting.
Southeast Kentucky
Light snow showers and flurries are likely in the mountains during the morning. Expect around 0.2 inches of accumulation on grassy surfaces.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the DGZ saturation is deeper and SLRs reach 20:1, Northeast Kentucky could see localized totals approaching 1.5 inches, with a dusting extending as far west as the I-75 corridor.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the sub-cloud dry air (below 850mb) remains as robust as the NAM suggests, most of the snowfall will evaporate as virga, resulting in nothing more than scattered flurries and no accumulation.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Northeast QPF Conflict
The GFS is an outlier with higher moisture availability, suggesting up to 1 inch of snow in the Northeast, while the NAM and Euro keep totals closer to a half-inch due to sub-cloud evaporation.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides a steady middle-ground on moisture depth and handles the 'dry slot' south of the clipper better than the GFS's tendency to over-smear light precip.
Western Warmth Gradient
The GEM and Euro are significantly more aggressive in scouring out arctic air in the Purchase area compared to the colder NAM.
Why GEM Wins
GEM's handling of the low-level thermal gradient in the post-frontal regime is often superior in the transition zones of Western Kentucky.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.