kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Fri, Feb 6
Sun, Feb 8
Forecast For

Saturday, February 7

Updated Feb 7, 6:10 AM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 6, 10:44 AM -> Feb 6, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 6 at 10:44AM EST until February 7 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Feb 6, 12:15 PM -> Feb 6, 8:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued February 6 at 12:15PM EST until February 7 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 6, 12:17 PM -> Feb 6, 8:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 6 at 12:17PM EST until February 7 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 6, 1:56 PM -> Feb 6, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 6 at 1:56PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 6, 2:05 PM -> Feb 6, 10:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 6 at 2:05PM EST until February 7 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 6, 2:18 PM -> Feb 6, 10:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 6 at 2:18PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 6, 2:58 PM -> Feb 7, 12:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 6 at 2:58PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 6, 5:37 PM -> Feb 7, 1:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 6 at 5:37PM EST until February 7 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Feb 6, 6:04 PM -> Feb 7, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued February 6 at 6:04PM EST until February 7 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 6, 9:29 PM -> Feb 7, 7:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 6 at 9:29PM EST until February 7 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 6, 9:37 PM -> Feb 7, 4:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 6 at 9:37PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 6, 9:54 PM -> Feb 7, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 6 at 9:54PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Feb 6, 10:52 PM -> Feb 7, 4:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 6 at 10:52PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 6, 10:58 PM -> Feb 7, 7:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 6 at 10:58PM EST until February 7 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 7, 12:53 AM -> Feb 7, 2:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 7 at 12:53AM EST until February 7 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Feb 7, 2:21 AM -> Feb 7, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued February 7 at 2:21AM EST until February 7 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Feb 7, 1:35 PM -> Feb 7, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 7 at 1:35PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 7, 2:25 PM -> Feb 7, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 7 at 2:25PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Confidence
60%

Arctic Front: Bitter Cold and Light Mountain Snow

A potent arctic cold front will sweep across Kentucky on Saturday, ushering in the coldest air mass of the winter season so far. While the front is moisture-starved for western and central Kentucky, it will deliver a brief window of light snow to the eastern half of the state, with accumulations primarily focused in the Southeast Coalfields. Temperatures will crash throughout the morning, with wind chills dropping into the single digits.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in the arctic temperature crash and wind chill impacts. Moderate confidence in the light snow accumulations due to the very thin nature of the moisture profile.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Cold but Bright
Sunny
38°/ 26°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Frigid Sunshine
Sunny
32°/ 24°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Brisk and Clear
Sunny
36°/ 26°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Cold Winds and Morning Clouds
Cloudy
33°/ 24°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature Crash; Cold Afternoon
Cloudy
29°/ 17°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Biting Cold and Brisk Winds
Cloudy
30°/ 19°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Chilly and Breezy
Cloudy
30°/ 20°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Extreme Cold; Morning Dusting
Snow
22°/ 8°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Frozen Bluegrass; Flurries Possible
Snow
25°/ 12°

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Cold and Overcast; Flurries
Cloudy
26°/ 14°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Frigid Valley Cold; Morning Snow
Snow
23°/ 11°

Southeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Accumulating Mountain Snow
Snow
27°/ 15°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the trailing shortwave slows over the Southeast, orographic enhancement could squeeze out 2 inches of fluffy snow in the mountains, with a widespread dusting reaching as far west as I-65.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the mid-level dry slot is more aggressive as suggested by the NAM, the front passes entirely dry for everyone but the highest peaks, leaving the state with only a 'dry' arctic blast.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Moisture Scarcity Conflict

The GFS and GEM suggest enough low-level saturation for a dusting of snow across the Bluegrass and Eastern KY, whereas the NAM and Euro keep the column too dry for measurable accumulation outside the mountains.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why GEM Wins

The GEM correctly identifies the high Snow-to-Liquid Ratios (SLR) in an arctic profile, where even 0.02" of liquid can produce a visible dusting. Its resolution of the shallow DGZ saturation is superior in this setup.

Affected Regions
BLUEGRASS CORENORTHERN KYNORTHEAST KYSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

Arctic Depth Divergence

Models disagree on the floor of the morning lows. The GFS is extremely aggressive with single digits in Northern KY, while the NAM is roughly 5-7 degrees warmer.

GFS
VS
NAM
VS
GEM
Why GFS Wins

The GFS tends to handle the magnitude of 1040mb arctic highs better in the 48-hour window, particularly regarding the density of the air mass spilling over the Ohio River.

Affected Regions
NORTHERN KYLOUISVILLE METROBLUEGRASS CORE

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A classic arctic profile with a deep isothermal layer below freezing from the surface to 500mb. A strong surface-based inversion is expected post-front.

Thermal Boundary

The arctic boundary will clear the Tennessee border by 14z Saturday.

Diurnal Trend

Strongly non-diurnal. Temperatures will peak near midnight or 6 AM and fall or remain steady through the afternoon.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

Frontal passage between 02z (West) and 10z (East). Evidence includes a 40-degree wind shift to the NW and rapid pressure rises.

Jet Stream Support

Right-entrance region of the polar jet provides synoptic-scale lift across the eastern half of KY.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough is pivoting through the base of the longwave, providing the necessary forcing for light snow.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Mostly dry (PWATs < 0.20 inches). Saturation is confined to the low-levels (below 800mb) within the Dendritic Growth Zone.

Precipitation Character

Light stratiform snow showers and flurries. High virga risk in Central KY due to mid-level dry air.

Flooding Context

Zero risk. Precipitation is light and ground is freezing.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

Entire vertical column is sub-freezing. No warm nose present; 100% snow/ice crystal probability.

Crystal Habit

Saturated DGZ between -12C and -18C will support high-ratio, fluffy dendritic crystals.

Road Impact

Flash freeze risk for any residual moisture on roads as temps drop 15 degrees in 3 hours.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

69% Illumination
Moonrise
11:41 PM
Moonset
10:42 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:53 AM
Sunset
6:26 PM
Civil Dawn
7:26 AM
Civil Dusk
6:53 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:48 AM
Sunset
6:19 PM
Civil Dawn
7:21 AM
Civil Dusk
6:46 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:48 AM
Sunset
6:22 PM
Civil Dawn
7:21 AM
Civil Dusk
6:49 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:44 AM
Sunset
6:18 PM
Civil Dawn
7:17 AM
Civil Dusk
6:45 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:43 AM
Sunset
6:13 PM
Civil Dawn
7:16 AM
Civil Dusk
6:40 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:43 AM
Sunset
6:14 PM
Civil Dawn
7:15 AM
Civil Dusk
6:41 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:37 AM
Sunset
6:10 PM
Civil Dawn
7:10 AM
Civil Dusk
6:37 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:40 AM
Sunset
6:06 PM
Civil Dawn
7:12 AM
Civil Dusk
6:34 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:38 AM
Sunset
6:08 PM
Civil Dawn
7:10 AM
Civil Dusk
6:36 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:37 AM
Sunset
6:08 PM
Civil Dawn
7:09 AM
Civil Dusk
6:35 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:31 AM
Sunset
6:00 PM
Civil Dawn
7:04 AM
Civil Dusk
6:27 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:31 AM
Sunset
6:04 PM
Civil Dawn
7:04 AM
Civil Dusk
6:31 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.