Saturday, February 7
Arctic Blast Grips Kentucky with Bitter Cold and Flurries
A potent arctic cold front will sweep across the Commonwealth on Saturday, bringing the coldest air mass of the season. Temperatures will fall or remain steady throughout the day as biting northwesterly winds drive wind chills into the single digits and sub-zero ranges. Light snow and flurries will accompany the front, primarily affecting Central and Eastern Kentucky with minor accumulations on grassy surfaces, while Western Kentucky remains dry but frigid.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the temperature crash and timing of the arctic front. Moderate confidence in snow accumulations due to the competing factors of high snow-to-liquid ratios (15:1) versus significant sub-cloud dry air which may cause sublimation.
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Purchase Area
It will be a very cold day across the Purchase area. While some clouds will linger early, skies will clear by the afternoon. No snow is expected, but brisk winds will keep wind chills in the teens.
Northwest Pennyrile
A brief period of light flurries is possible before sunrise. No accumulation is expected. Temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark all day.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect a cold and windy day with clouds decreasing by afternoon. While it may feel like it could snow, the air is too dry for any significant flurries.
Barren River
Early morning clouds will give way to a mostly sunny but cold afternoon. Temperatures will stay near or below freezing, with biting winds.
Louisville Metro
Prepare for a biting morning with light snow flurries. Accumulations around 0.2 inches are possible, mainly on grassy surfaces. Wind chills will drop into the single digits.
Lincoln Trail
Light snow will end early, giving way to a cold and windy afternoon. Accumulations around 0.1 inches are possible. Any wet spots on roads could freeze quickly.
Lake Cumberland
Expect light snow to fall through the morning hours, with accumulations around 0.3 inches possible. Temperatures will reach the teens by evening.
Northern Kentucky
The main story is the extreme cold. While a few flurries are possible, significant snow is not expected. Wind chills will stay near zero most of the day.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a light dusting of snow overnight and into the early morning. Accumulations around 0.3 inches are likely. Wind chills will drop near zero by sunrise.
Bluegrass Foothills
Light snow flurries will persist through the first half of the day. Accumulations around 0.3 inches are expected. It will be a very cold day with biting winds.
Northeast Kentucky
Light snow is likely through the first half of the day, leaving accumulations around 0.4 inches. Wind chills will be dangerous, dipping into the sub-zero range.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will see the highest snow totals, with accumulations around 0.8 inches possible. Travelling through higher elevations may be difficult due to slick roads.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If orographic lift in the Eastern mountains over-performs and the moisture remains trapped in the DGZ longer, isolated 1-2 inch snow totals could occur in the Southeast Coalfields, with a widespread half-inch for the Bluegrass.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the arctic dry slot arrives faster than modeled, snow will evaporate as 'virga' before reaching the ground, leaving the state with nothing more than a few stray flakes and clear, frigid skies.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Mountain Enhancement Battle
GFS and GEM models show higher snow totals (near 1.0 inch) for the Southeast Coalfields due to orographic lift, while NAM and Euro keep totals closer to 0.3 inches.
Why GEM Wins
The GEM captures the interaction of shallow arctic air with complex terrain more effectively. Northwest flow into the Appalachians often over-performs in low-moisture environments.
The Western Moisture Cutoff
NAM and GFS are more aggressive with light snow flurries reaching into the Pennyrile and Purchase regions, while the Euro and GEM suggest the arctic dry slot will scour out moisture much faster in the west.
Why EURO Wins
Arctic air masses are notoriously moisture-starved. The Euro's handling of dry slots and moisture cutoffs is historically more reliable than the GFS 'smear' effect in high-pressure regimes.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.