kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Tue, Feb 3
Thu, Feb 5
Forecast For

Wednesday, February 4

Updated Feb 4, 6:07 AM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 10:50 AM -> Feb 3, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 10:50AM EST until February 3 at 10:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 12:01 PM -> Feb 4, 2:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 12:01PM EST until February 4 at 2:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 12:01 PM -> Feb 4, 12:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 12:01PM EST until February 4 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 3, 12:06 PM -> Feb 3, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 3 at 12:06PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 3, 12:28 PM -> Feb 3, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 3 at 12:28PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 1:15 PM -> Feb 3, 9:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 1:15PM EST until February 3 at 10:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 1:25 PM -> Feb 4, 12:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 1:25PM EST until February 4 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 1:25 PM -> Feb 4, 2:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 1:25PM EST until February 4 at 2:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 1:25 PM -> Feb 4, 2:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 1:25PM EST until February 4 at 2:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Dense Fog Advisory

Feb 3, 3:52 PM -> Feb 3, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Dense Fog Advisory issued February 3 at 2:52PM CST until February 3 at 9:00PM CST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 4:14 PM -> Feb 3, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 4:14PM EST until February 3 at 10:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Dense Fog Advisory

Feb 3, 4:32 PM -> Feb 3, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Dense Fog Advisory issued February 3 at 3:32PM CST until February 3 at 9:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 5:09 PM -> Feb 3, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 5:09PM EST until February 3 at 10:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 6:25 PM -> Feb 3, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 6:25PM EST until February 3 at 10:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 6:58 PM -> Feb 4, 2:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 6:58PM EST until February 4 at 2:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 6:58 PM -> Feb 4, 2:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 6:58PM EST until February 4 at 2:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 6:58 PM -> Feb 4, 12:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 6:58PM EST until February 4 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 7:00 PM -> Feb 4, 12:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 7:00PM EST until February 4 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 3, 7:40 PM -> Feb 3, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 3 at 7:40PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Feb 3, 8:27 PM -> Feb 4, 12:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 3 at 8:27PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 3, 9:12 PM -> Feb 4, 3:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 3 at 9:12PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 3, 9:41 PM -> Feb 4, 12:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 3 at 9:41PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 9:53 PM -> Feb 4, 2:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 9:53PM EST until February 4 at 2:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 9:53 PM -> Feb 4, 2:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 9:53PM EST until February 4 at 2:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 3, 9:53 PM -> Feb 4, 12:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 9:53PM EST until February 4 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 3, 11:15 PM -> Feb 4, 2:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 3 at 11:15PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 4, 2:14 AM -> Feb 4, 7:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 4 at 2:14AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 4, 6:59 AM -> Feb 4, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 4 at 6:59AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
60%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Wednesday, February 4, 2026.

Temperature
±3.8°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±4.53"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±2.5mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
35° / 24°
Actual
38° / 27°
Error: -3°F high, -3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 21 mph
Actual
9 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
32° / 22°
Actual
35° / 24°
Error: -3°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 20 mph
Actual
9 / 21 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
33° / 24°
Actual
37° / 26°
Error: -4°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 21 mph
Actual
10 / 21 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
34° / 25°
Actual
39° / 29°
Error: -5°F high, -4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
3.28"
±3.28" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 20 mph
Actual
7 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
31° / 19°
Actual
32° / 19°
Error: -1°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 21 mph
Actual
9 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
32° / 20°
Actual
38° / 24°
Error: -6°F high, -4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0.72"
±0.72" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 21 mph
Actual
8 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
33° / 24°
Actual
41° / 28°
Error: -8°F high, -4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.5"
Actual
19.82"
±19.32" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 18 mph
Actual
6 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
26° / 13°
Actual
31° / 16°
Error: -5°F high, -3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 19 mph
Actual
5 / 16 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
30° / 17°
Actual
34° / 19°
Error: -4°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
1.79"
±1.59" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 23 mph
Actual
10 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
32° / 19°
Actual
34° / 26°
Error: -2°F high, -7°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.5"
Actual
3.04"
±2.54" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 18 mph
Actual
6 / 16 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
32° / 21°
Actual
33° / 13°
Error: -1°F high, 8°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
3.98"
±3.78" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 19 mph
Actual
4 / 15 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
33° / 26°
Actual
37° / 27°
Error: -4°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
1.5"
Actual
24.61"
±23.11" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 16 mph
Actual
3 / 15 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Arctic Chill Grips Kentucky with Lingering Mountain Snow

A sharp contrast exists across the Commonwealth today as an arctic high-pressure system builds from the northwest while a departing shortwave trough maintains light snow showers across the eastern mountains. Western and Central Kentucky will see clearing skies and biting cold, while the Southeast Coalfields deal with light, accumulating snow through the evening.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

Confidence is high regarding the arctic temperatures and clearing trend in the west, but moderate regarding the exact placement of the 1-inch snow line in the southeast and the persistence of flurries in the Bluegrass.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Cold and Clear
Sunny
35°/ 24°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Brisk and Bright
Sunny
32°/ 22°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Cold Sunshine
Sunny
33°/ 24°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Gray Morning, Bright Afternoon
Cloudy
34°/ 25°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Cold and Mostly Cloudy
Cloudy
31°/ 19°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Frigid and Cloudy
Cloudy
32°/ 20°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Light Snow Showers
Snow
33°/ 24°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Bitterly Cold
Sunny
26°/ 13°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Morning Snow Dusting
Snow
30°/ 17°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Steady Light Snow
Snow
32°/ 19°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Early Snow Dusting
Snow
32°/ 21°

Southeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Accumulating Mountain Snow
Snow
33°/ 26°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The 'Boom' scenario involves the shortwave slowing its exit, allowing orographic enhancement in the Southeast Coalfields to maximize snow-to-liquid ratios (SLRs) as the arctic air deepens, potentially pushing local totals toward 3 inches in the highest peaks of the Appalachians.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The 'Bust' scenario occurs if the dry arctic wedge pushes east faster than modeled, cutting off moisture in the Bluegrass and Coalfields by midday and limiting accumulations to a mere dusting or less.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Southeast Snow Squeeze

A disagreement exists between the global models (GFS/Euro) and the mesoscale/regional models (NAM/GEM) regarding snowfall intensity in the Southeast Coalfields. The globals are more aggressive with QPF and mountain enhancement, while the NAM/GEM suggest drier air will limit totals.

GFS
VS
EURO
VS
NAM
Why EURO Wins

The Euro's handling of the moisture cut-off and the synoptic track of the shortwave trough provides a more balanced middle ground between the NAM's dry bias and the GFS's tendency to over-smear light precipitation.

Affected Regions
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDSLAKE CUMBERLANDBLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS

The Bluegrass Dusting Debate

The NAM and GEM suggest a narrow corridor of measurable light snow (0.2-0.5") as the clipper-like system moves through, while the GFS and Euro keep the Bluegrass Core largely dry with only non-measurable flurries.

NAM
VS
GEM
VS
GFS
Why NAM Wins

The NAM's superior resolution of shallow moisture and boundary-layer cooling often captures these light 'clipper' dustings better than global models which may evaporate too much QPF in the low levels.

Affected Regions
BLUEGRASS CORELINCOLN TRAILNORTHERN KY

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A deep arctic air mass is in place with 850mb temperatures ranging from -10C to -14C. A shallow isothermal layer exists near the surface in the east, hovering between 28-34°F, while the west is firmly below freezing throughout the column.

Thermal Boundary

The 32°F surface isotherm is draped across the Cumberland Plateau and Southeast Coalfields.

Diurnal Trend

A non-diurnal trend is expected for eastern regions due to thick cloud cover and cold air advection, while the west follows a standard but frigid diurnal curve with limited solar heating.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A secondary arctic front cleared the state between 03z and 09z, evidenced by a shift to northwesterly winds and a sharp drop in dew points.

Jet Stream Support

The region resides in the favorable left-exit region of a departing 110kt jet streak over the Mid-Atlantic, providing broad synoptic lift for the eastern half of the state.

Energy Status

A compact 500mb vorticity maximum is centered over the Southeast Coalfields as of 12z, providing the primary lifting mechanism for ongoing snow showers.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is saturated from the surface to 700mb in the southeast; however, significant dry air entrainment is occurring northwest of a line from Louisville to Somerset, leading to a virga risk for light echoes.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation is predominantly stratiform light snow, with some orographic enhancement providing steady rates in the eastern mountains.

Flooding Context

No hydrologic concerns exist as liquid equivalents remain below 0.15 inches and the ground is frozen or cold.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

The vertical profile is entirely below freezing for most of the state, but the far southeast maintains a very shallow 'warm' layer (33-34°F) at the surface, which will initially promote a wet snow or rain/snow mix before diabatic cooling takes over.

Crystal Habit

Snow quality will favor standard dendrites, though small plates and snow grains are likely in the Bluegrass where the saturated layer is shallower.

Road Impact

Snow will melt initially on treated surfaces, but bridges, overpasses, and higher-elevation roads in the Southeast will likely become slick as temperatures drop and accumulation begins.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

92% Illumination
Moonrise
8:35 PM
Moonset
9:32 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:55 AM
Sunset
6:23 PM
Civil Dawn
7:28 AM
Civil Dusk
6:50 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:51 AM
Sunset
6:16 PM
Civil Dawn
7:23 AM
Civil Dusk
6:43 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:51 AM
Sunset
6:19 PM
Civil Dawn
7:23 AM
Civil Dusk
6:46 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:47 AM
Sunset
6:15 PM
Civil Dawn
7:20 AM
Civil Dusk
6:42 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:46 AM
Sunset
6:09 PM
Civil Dawn
7:18 AM
Civil Dusk
6:37 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:46 AM
Sunset
6:11 PM
Civil Dawn
7:18 AM
Civil Dusk
6:38 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:39 AM
Sunset
6:07 PM
Civil Dawn
7:12 AM
Civil Dusk
6:34 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:43 AM
Sunset
6:03 PM
Civil Dawn
7:15 AM
Civil Dusk
6:31 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:41 AM
Sunset
6:05 PM
Civil Dawn
7:13 AM
Civil Dusk
6:32 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:39 AM
Sunset
6:04 PM
Civil Dawn
7:12 AM
Civil Dusk
6:32 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:34 AM
Sunset
5:56 PM
Civil Dawn
7:06 AM
Civil Dusk
6:24 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:34 AM
Sunset
6:01 PM
Civil Dawn
7:07 AM
Civil Dusk
6:28 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.