Thursday, February 5
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 4 at 7:11PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Patchy light snow possibly mixed with freezing drizzle is expected to affect the area over the next couple of hours. Little or no snow or ice accumulation is anticipated. However, untreated surfaces could become slick. Travelers are advised to exercise caution. Avoid sudden braking and/or accelerations through curves and when approaching intersections, in case you encounter slick roads. Allow extra time to reach your destination.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 5 at 9:19AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Locally dense fog has developed this morning in the very light flow. The fog will result in rapidly changing conditions with visibilities reduced to less than 1/4 mile in locations. Motorists are advised to prepare for rapidly changing conditions and allow extra time to reach your intended destination. The visibility will slowly improve through late morning.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 5 at 12:28PM EST until February 6 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches with locally higher amounts.
WHERE Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.
WHEN From 6 AM to 6 PM EST Friday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, visit 511in.org or call 1-800-261-7623 for the latest road information. In Kentucky, visit goky.ky.gov for the latest road information. In Ohio, visit ohgo.com for the latest road information.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 5 at 12:39PM EST until February 7 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio.
WHEN From 7 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1 or by accessing the online traffic and roadway portal for your state. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 5 at 12:53PM EST until February 6 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of around 1 inch for most locations; isolated amounts of up to 2 inches are possible.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From 8 AM to 6 PM EST Friday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 5 at 12:53PM EST until February 7 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, except 2 to 4 inches above 2,000 feet.
WHERE Harlan, Letcher, and Pike Counties.
WHEN From 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 5 at 1:09PM EST until February 6 at 5:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 1 inch for most locations. Isolated amounts of up to 2 inches are possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana and east central and north central Kentucky.
WHEN From 7 AM to 5 PM EST Friday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 5 at 1:15PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
A period of snow, possibly mixed with rain and sleet, is expected to develop late Friday morning and persist into the afternoon hours. A dusting to one half inch of sloppy snow accumulation is expected for most locations. Travelers are advised to exercise caution and allow extra time to reach their destination on Friday.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 5 at 1:20PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
A period of snow, possibly mixed with some rain and sleet, is expected to develop Friday morning and continue through the afternoon hours. A dusting to one half inch of slushy snow accumulation is possible in the advisory area. This may cause slick spots to develop on area roadways. Travelers are advised to exercise caution and allow extra time to reach their destinations on Friday.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 5 at 4:04PM EST until February 6 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches with locally higher amounts.
WHERE Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.
WHEN From 6 AM to 6 PM EST Friday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, visit 511in.org or call 1-800-261-7623 for the latest road information. In Kentucky, visit goky.ky.gov for the latest road information. In Ohio, visit ohgo.com for the latest road information.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 5 at 6:55PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
A period of snow, possibly mixed with rain and sleet, is expected to develop late Friday morning and persist into the afternoon hours. A dusting to one half inch of sloppy snow accumulation is expected for most locations. Travelers are advised to exercise caution and allow extra time to reach their destination on Friday.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Thursday, February 5, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Bitter Arctic Cold Grips Kentucky; Light Northern Flurries
A powerful Arctic high pressure system will dominate the Commonwealth on Thursday, bringing some of the coldest temperatures of the season. While most of the state will remain dry under a mix of sun and increasing mid-level clouds, a weak upper-level disturbance will likely trigger light snow flurries across Northern Kentucky during the afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark statewide, with morning wind chills dipping into the single digits and sub-zero range for northern counties.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists regarding the temperature regime being well below seasonal norms. However, confidence is lower regarding the ability of very light moisture to reach the surface as snow flurries versus evaporating as virga.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
The day will start with a bit of sunshine, but clouds will quickly increase from the southwest. It will be a cold day with temperatures barely reaching the freezing mark.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect gray skies for most of the afternoon. Temperatures will stay below freezing all day, making for a very chilly February afternoon.
Southwest Pennyrile
A few stray flakes may be seen very early in the morning before sun breaks through briefly. Clouds return in the afternoon with cold temperatures.
Barren River
A cold winter day with a high of only 30 degrees. Afternoon clouds will make the day feel even colder.
Louisville Metro
Residents will wake up to temperatures in the single digits. Despite some afternoon sun, highs will only reach the mid-20s.
Lincoln Trail
A dry but very cold day for the region. Highs will struggle into the upper 20s under gray afternoon skies.
Lake Cumberland
A mix of sun and clouds with very cold temperatures. Winds near the lake will keep wind chills in the teens all day.
Northern Kentucky
Watch for some light snow flurries during the afternoon hours. While little to no accumulation is expected, a dusting is possible on grassy surfaces.
Inner Bluegrass
Morning lows in the single digits will make for a frigid start. The afternoon will be mostly cloudy and very cold.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a dry but bitterly cold day. Morning temperatures in the single digits will only recover to the mid-20s by afternoon.
Northeast Kentucky
Deep valleys will be very cold to start the day. Sunshine will be filtered by clouds as the day goes on.
Southeast Kentucky
A cold but dry day for the mountains. Highs will stall in the upper 20s under a mix of sun and clouds.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the moisture associated with the northern shortwave is deeper than modeled, light snow flurries could expand into the Bluegrass Core and Louisville Metro, resulting in a widespread dusting (up to 0.5") on all surfaces given the frigid ground temperatures.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry layer below 850mb remains as robust as the NAM suggests, all northern flurries will result in virga, leaving the entire state dry with only a persistence of overcast skies limiting any diurnal recovery.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Northern Flurry Feud
The Euro (ECMWF) identifies a weak surface trough and sufficient saturation to produce light snow flurries in Northern Kentucky, while the GFS and NAM remain stubbornly dry due to high dewpoint depressions in the lower atmosphere.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro typically handles weak synoptic forcing and marginal moisture in Arctic air masses with higher precision than the GFS 'smear' effect. Given the low-level lapse rates and DGZ placement, a flurry mention is meteorologically sound.
The Morning Low Margin
The GEM and GFS are significantly more aggressive with radiational cooling, bringing temperatures to near zero or sub-zero in Northern KY, while the NAM and Euro keep lows in the low teens.
Why GEM Wins
GEM's known cold bias often becomes an asset during established Arctic high-pressure regimes with clear skies and light winds, which maximize radiational cooling potential over snowpack or dry soils.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.