Tuesday, February 3
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 2 at 12:49PM EST until February 3 at 10:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches, with locally higher amounts.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, visit 511in.org or call 1-800-261-7623 for the latest road information. In Kentucky, visit goky.ky.gov for the latest road information. In Ohio, visit ohgo.com for the latest road information.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 2 at 1:12PM EST until February 4 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 2 inches of slushy, wet snow. The Tuesday afternoon and evening commutes will be affected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central and north central Kentucky.
WHEN From 10 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday Night.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 2 at 1:12PM EST until February 4 at 2:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Mainly snow expected. Total snow accumulations of a coating to 1 inch of slushy, wet snow. A glaze of ice is also possible with brief freezing rain. This wintry mix will affect the Tuesday afternoon and evening commutes.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central and north central Kentucky.
WHEN From 1 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EST Wednesday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 2 at 4:07PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
An approaching weather system could bring some light snow to areas generally north of the Mountain Parkway on Tuesday, most likely in the afternoon and evening. If snow or mixed wintry precipitation materializes, it could impact the Tuesday evening commute. Those planning to travel on Tuesday afternoon and evening should stay tuned for later forecasts for further details or updates, and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 2 at 9:08PM EST until February 3 at 10:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches, with locally higher amounts.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, visit 511in.org or call 1-800-261-7623 for the latest road information. In Kentucky, visit goky.ky.gov for the latest road information. In Ohio, visit ohgo.com for the latest road information.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 2 at 10:55PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
An approaching weather system could bring some light snow to areas generally north of the Mountain Parkway on Tuesday, most likely in the afternoon and evening. If snow or mixed wintry precipitation materializes, it could impact the Tuesday evening commute. Those planning to travel on Tuesday afternoon and evening should stay tuned for later forecasts for further details or updates, and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 12:24AM EST until February 3 at 10:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 4 inches.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central and western West Virginia.
WHEN From 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1 or by accessing the online traffic and roadway portal for your state. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 2:35AM EST until February 4 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to one inch, with localized accumulations possibly near 2 inches.
WHERE Bath, Fleming, Montgomery, and Rowan Counties.
WHEN From 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The wet snow falling on frozen surfaces from the recent prolonged cold will cause untreated roads to become slick quickly.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 3:15AM EST until February 3 at 10:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches, with locally higher amounts.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, visit 511in.org or call 1-800-261-7623 for the latest road information. In Kentucky, visit goky.ky.gov for the latest road information. In Ohio, visit ohgo.com for the latest road information.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 3:29AM EST until February 4 at 2:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Mainly snow expected. Total snow accumulations of a coating to 1 inch of slushy, wet snow. A glaze of ice is also possible with brief freezing rain. The afternoon and evening commutes will be affected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central and north central Kentucky.
WHEN From 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST Wednesday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the late afternoon and evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 3:29AM EST until February 4 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 2 inches of slushy, wet snow. The afternoon and evening commutes will be affected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central and north central Kentucky.
WHEN From 10 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the late afternoon and evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 3 at 3:56AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Snow, or a rain-snow mix, is expected to move east and southeast across the area beginning late this afternoon and lasting into this evening, possibly impacting the late afternoon and evening commute. Note that with surfaces and sub-surfaces remaining frozen from the recent prolonged cold, any rain on untreated roads with air temperatures slightly above freezing will also have the potential to cause slick spots, especially in shaded areas. As temperatures fall below freezing this evening and overnight, any wet spots will quickly freeze on area roads. Those planning to travel this afternoon and evening should prepare for possible hazardous travel conditions, and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 7:58AM EST until February 3 at 10:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Snow. Total snow accumulations 1 to 4 inches.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN Until 10 PM EST this evening.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1 or by accessing the online traffic and roadway portal for your state. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 10:38AM EST until February 4 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Wet snow is expected, mainly this evening. Total snow accumulations through this evening are forecast to be less than an inch.
WHERE Bath, Fleming, Montgomery, and Rowan Counties.
WHEN Until midnight EST tonight.
IMPACTS Plan on the possibility of slippery road conditions which could affect the evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 10:50AM EST until February 3 at 10:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Snow. Additional snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, and southwest Ohio.
WHEN Until 10 PM EST this evening.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, visit 511in.org or call 1-800-261-7623 for the latest road information. In Kentucky, visit goky.ky.gov for the latest road information. In Ohio, visit ohgo.com for the latest road information.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 12:01PM EST until February 4 at 2:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Mainly snow expected. Total wet, slushy snow accumulations of a coating to 1 inch. The afternoon and evening commute will be impacted. A glaze of ice is also possible late this evening into the overnight and could create some slick spots on elevated surfaces and untreated roadways into Wednesday morning.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central and north central Kentucky.
WHEN Until 2 AM EST Wednesday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 12:01PM EST until February 4 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Snow Expected. Total slushy, wet snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. The late afternoon and evening commute will be affected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central and north central Kentucky.
WHEN Until midnight EST tonight.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 3 at 12:06PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
Lingering freezing drizzle as temperatures drop below freezing could lead to a few slick spots on untreated roadways and elevated surfaces. Amounts would not exceed a thin glaze of ice as precipitation will be very light. Watch for any slick spots even through the Wednesday morning commute.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 3 at 12:28PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
Snow showers are expected for the Tuesday evening commute. Little or no snowfall accumulation is expected, but the combination of falling snow and the cold ground can lead to slick conditions on roads and sidewalks. Use caution when traveling this evening.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 1:15PM EST until February 3 at 10:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Snow. Additional snow accumulations one to three inches.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN Until 10 PM EST this evening.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1 or by accessing the online traffic and roadway portal for your state. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 1:25PM EST until February 4 at 2:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Mainly snow expected. Total wet, slushy snow accumulations of a coating to 1 inch. The afternoon and evening commute will be impacted. A glaze of ice is also possible late this evening into the overnight and could create some slick spots on elevated surfaces and untreated roadways into Wednesday morning.
WHERE Anderson, Jessamine, and Spencer Counties.
WHEN Until 2 AM EST Wednesday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 1:25PM EST until February 4 at 2:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Mainly snow expected. Total wet, slushy snow accumulations of a coating to 1 inch. The afternoon and evening commute will be impacted. A glaze of ice is also possible late this evening into the overnight and could create some slick spots on elevated surfaces and untreated roadways into Wednesday morning.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central and north central Kentucky.
WHEN Until 2 AM EST Wednesday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 1:25PM EST until February 4 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total slushy, wet snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. The late afternoon and evening commute will be affected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central and north central Kentucky.
WHEN Until midnight EST tonight.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 3 at 1:49PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
Locally dense fog is developing along the Kentucky/Tennessee border ahead of a cold front where moisture is streaming in over snowpack. This fog should not last more than about an hour as the cold front and drier air is working across the area but local visibility reductions to around one quarter mile will be possible through 4 pm.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued February 3 at 2:52PM CST until February 3 at 9:00PM CST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Visibility less than one quarter mile in dense fog.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky.
WHEN Until 9 PM CST this evening.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.
If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 4:14PM EST until February 3 at 10:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Snow. Additional snow accumulations up to one inch.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN Until 10 PM EST this evening.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1 or by accessing the online traffic and roadway portal for your state. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued February 3 at 3:32PM CST until February 3 at 9:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Visibility less than one-quarter mile in dense fog.
WHERE Calloway, Christian, Todd, and Trigg Counties.
WHEN Until 9 PM CST this evening.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous. Conditions should improve through the afternoon or early evening as a slow moving front clears to the ast.
If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 5:09PM EST until February 3 at 10:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to an inch.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and south central and southwest Ohio.
WHEN Until 10 PM EST this evening.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, visit 511in.org or call 1-800-261-7623 for the latest road information. In Kentucky, visit goky.ky.gov for the latest road information. In Ohio, visit ohgo.com for the latest road information.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 6:25PM EST until February 3 at 10:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Snow. Additional snow accumulations up to one inch.
WHERE Portions of northeast and northern Kentucky and south central and southwest Ohio.
WHEN Until 10 PM EST this evening.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Kentucky, visit goky.ky.gov for the latest road information. In Ohio, visit ohgo.com for the latest road information.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 6:58PM EST until February 4 at 2:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Mixed precipitation. Snow accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around a light glaze.
WHERE Anderson, Jessamine, and Spencer Counties.
WHEN Until 2 AM EST Wednesday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 6:58PM EST until February 4 at 2:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Mixed precipitation. Snow accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around a light glaze.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central and north central Kentucky.
WHEN Until 2 AM EST Wednesday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 3 at 6:58PM EST until February 4 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Snow. Snow accumulations up to one inch.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central and north central Kentucky.
WHEN Until midnight EST tonight.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Tuesday, February 3, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Winter Snow Impacts Northern KY; Cold Rain Further South
A compact shortwave trough will transit the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, bringing a sharp divide in precipitation types across the Commonwealth. Northern Kentucky will experience accumulating snowfall, while central regions undergo a rain-to-snow transition. Southern Kentucky remains primarily in the warm sector, seeing cold, steady rain.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high that a system will impact the state, but moderate on the exact southern extent of accumulating snow. The high-volatility nature of the rain-to-snow transition (-30) and slight timing disagreements (-10) result in a score of 60.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
A quiet day is expected for the Purchase region. While clouds will increase throughout the afternoon, no significant rain or snow is forecast.
Northwest Pennyrile
Cloudy skies will prevail in Owensboro and Henderson, but the bulk of the precipitation will stay to the south and east. Only a stray sprinkle is possible.
Southwest Pennyrile
Light rain showers will develop during the afternoon. Temperatures will be safely above freezing, so no winter impacts are expected.
Barren River
Expect a steady, cold rain to move through by early afternoon and continue through the evening. The ground will stay wet, but no snow or ice is forecast.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see rain through the afternoon. As temperatures drop this evening, a few hours of light snow are possible, leading to accumulations around a half-inch on the grass.
Lincoln Trail
Rain will be the primary story today. A brief window of snowflakes may occur late this evening, but no accumulation is expected.
Lake Cumberland
A soggy afternoon and evening for Somerset and surrounding areas. Rain will be steady at times, with up to a quarter-inch of accumulation possible.
Northern Kentucky
Steady snow will develop during the morning and continue through the afternoon. Accumulations around 3 inches are expected, which will make roads slick for the evening commute.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see rain through much of the day. A transition to snow is expected late this evening, with accumulations around 1 inch possible by morning.
Bluegrass Foothills
Rain will mix with snow late this evening. A dusting of around 1 inch is possible on grassy surfaces, particularly in the higher elevations.
Northeast Kentucky
Snow will arrive this evening and could accumulate around 2 inches fairly quickly. Roads may become slick, especially after dark as temperatures drop.
Southeast Kentucky
Steady rain will move into the valleys this evening. While the valleys stay rain, some light ice or snow may coat the highest mountain peaks overnight.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' Scenario: If the GFS-indicated moisture levels verify and the cold air undercuts the warm nose faster, Northern Kentucky could see a swath of 4-6 inches of snow, with the 1-inch line pushing as far south as the Western Kentucky Parkway.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' Scenario: If the Euro's warmer boundary layer wins, the event remains a cold rain for almost everyone except the immediate Ohio River counties, resulting in only a dusting of snow on grassy surfaces and minimal travel impact.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Western Kentucky Moisture Starvation
The NAM and GFS suggest a 'dry slot' will keep the Purchase and Northwest Pennyrile regions nearly dry, while the Euro suggests light showers will linger through the afternoon.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro handles moisture cutoffs with higher precision in these shortwave setups. We will include low-end PoPs (30-40%) to account for light rain potential.
The NKY Snow Gradient
The GFS is an outlier with much higher snowfall totals (3-5") for Northern KY compared to the Euro/GEM (1-3"). The disagreement stems from the GFS producing more intense frontogenesis near the Ohio River.
Why BLEND Wins
While the GFS is often too aggressive with light-precip coverage, the NAM and GEM both support a healthy 2-3 inch solution. We will hedge toward the NAM/GEM consensus for accumulations.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.