Monday, February 2
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 2 at 2:37AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Sub-zero temperatures and wind chill values are occurring this morning. While most locations will have values in the negative single digits, some isolated temperatures and wind chills will be as low as 10 degrees below zero. Temperatures improve across western and southwest Ohio over the next few hours as clouds move in.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 2 at 5:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Single digit temperatures and below zero wind chill values are occurring this morning across the area. While most locations will have values in the single digits to near zero, some isolated temperatures and wind chills will be as low as 10 degrees below zero.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 2 at 12:49PM EST until February 3 at 10:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches, with locally higher amounts.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, visit 511in.org or call 1-800-261-7623 for the latest road information. In Kentucky, visit goky.ky.gov for the latest road information. In Ohio, visit ohgo.com for the latest road information.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 2 at 1:12PM EST until February 4 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 2 inches of slushy, wet snow. The Tuesday afternoon and evening commutes will be affected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central and north central Kentucky.
WHEN From 10 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday Night.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 2 at 1:12PM EST until February 4 at 2:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Mainly snow expected. Total snow accumulations of a coating to 1 inch of slushy, wet snow. A glaze of ice is also possible with brief freezing rain. This wintry mix will affect the Tuesday afternoon and evening commutes.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central and north central Kentucky.
WHEN From 1 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EST Wednesday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 2 at 4:07PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
An approaching weather system could bring some light snow to areas generally north of the Mountain Parkway on Tuesday, most likely in the afternoon and evening. If snow or mixed wintry precipitation materializes, it could impact the Tuesday evening commute. Those planning to travel on Tuesday afternoon and evening should stay tuned for later forecasts for further details or updates, and allow extra time to reach your destination.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Monday, February 2, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Arctic Chill Grips Kentucky with Northern Snow Flurries
A potent Arctic air mass will remain entrenched across the Commonwealth on Monday. While the majority of the state stays dry under high pressure, a weak upper-level disturbance will clip Northern Kentucky and the Ohio River valley, bringing light snow showers and minor accumulations. Bitterly cold morning temperatures with sub-zero wind chills are expected for the Bluegrass and Northern regions.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for the Arctic temperature profile and the general location of the cold core. Confidence is lower regarding whether the light snow will overcome the dry lower atmosphere to produce measurable accumulation.
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Purchase Area
Expect a crisp and sunny day across the Purchase Area. Temperatures will start in the low 20s and reach a high around 41 degrees. No precipitation is expected.
Northwest Pennyrile
The Owensboro area will see plenty of sunshine but very little warmth. Highs will struggle to reach 37 degrees after a cold start in the teens.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect sunny skies and a cold afternoon with temperatures topping out near 41 degrees. Winds will be light, making the cold air more tolerable.
Barren River
Bowling Green will experience a dry, sunny day with a high of 40. The morning will be quite cold with lows in the upper teens and wind chills in the single digits.
Louisville Metro
Expect a grey and cold day in Louisville. A brief period of light snow flurries is likely during the morning commute, which may result in a light dusting around 0.1 inches on grassy surfaces.
Lincoln Trail
Cloudy skies will dominate Elizabethtown today with temperatures struggling to reach 36 degrees. No significant snow is expected.
Lake Cumberland
Temperatures will start in the low teens this morning. Despite the cold, plenty of sunshine is expected this afternoon with a high of 37.
Northern Kentucky
Periods of light snow will occur through the day. Accumulations around 0.2 inches are expected, primarily on grassy surfaces and bridges. Watch for a few slick spots.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will face a biting cold Monday. Highs will only reach 33 degrees after a single-digit start. Wind chills will stay in the teens all afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
A grey and cold day is on tap for Richmond and Berea. Highs will stay near 34 degrees with morning wind chills near zero.
Northeast Kentucky
Ashland will wake up to temperatures near 8 degrees. Clouds will increase throughout the day, keeping afternoon temperatures in the low 30s.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a beautiful but very cold day in the mountains. Highs will reach 34 degrees after a frigid start in the single digits.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The clipper-like shortwave digs further south and overcomes the dry sub-cloud layer, resulting in a widespread 0.5 to 1.0 inch of fluffy snow extending from Louisville through the Bluegrass Core.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Dry Arctic air completely erodes the moisture associated with the shortwave, resulting in nothing more than scattered 'diamond dust' flurries in Northern Kentucky with zero accumulation.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Arctic Valley Minimums
The GEM and NAM are significantly colder with morning lows in the eastern valleys and Bluegrass Core (3-5°F), while the Euro is more conservative (10-12°F).
Why NAM Wins
The NAM and GEM resolve shallow cold air damming and radiational cooling in Kentucky's complex terrain far better than the global Euro during Arctic outbreaks.
The Virga Wall
The NAM remains steadfastly dry for the entire state, suggesting the sub-cloud dry air will evaporate all hydrometeors. The GFS and GEM are more aggressive, showing a saturated DGZ and enough forcing to push light snow to the surface in the northern tier.
Why BLEND Wins
While the NAM correctly identifies the dry layer, the GFS/GEM synoptic support for the shortwave is high enough to warrant a mention of light accumulations in the North, though totals are capped due to the moisture deficit.
Celestial Almanac
Full Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.