kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Sat, Jan 31
Mon, Feb 2
Forecast For

Sunday, February 1

Updated Feb 1, 6:53 AM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 31, 11:03 AM -> Jan 31, 7:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 31 at 11:03AM EST until February 1 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 31, 11:03 AM -> Jan 31, 7:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 31 at 11:03AM EST until February 1 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 31, 12:07 PM -> Jan 31, 8:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 31 at 12:07PM EST until February 1 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 31, 4:13 PM -> Jan 31, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 31 at 4:13PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 31, 4:39 PM -> Feb 1, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 31 at 4:39PM EST until February 1 at 9:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 31, 5:25 PM -> Feb 1, 3:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 31 at 5:25PM EST until February 1 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 31, 5:31 PM -> Jan 31, 9:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 31 at 5:31PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 31, 6:18 PM -> Feb 1, 12:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 31 at 6:18PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 31, 6:19 PM -> Jan 31, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 31 at 6:19PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 31, 6:19 PM -> Feb 1, 4:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 31 at 6:19PM EST until February 1 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 31, 7:33 PM -> Feb 1, 3:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 31 at 7:33PM EST until February 1 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 31, 11:51 PM -> Feb 1, 8:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 31 at 11:51PM EST until February 1 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Feb 1, 12:07 AM -> Feb 1, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued February 1 at 12:07AM EST until February 1 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Feb 1, 12:46 AM -> Feb 1, 7:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 1 at 12:46AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Feb 1, 2:59 AM -> Feb 1, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued February 1 at 2:59AM EST until February 1 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Feb 1, 3:55 AM -> Feb 1, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued February 1 at 3:55AM EST until February 1 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Feb 1, 4:31 AM -> Feb 1, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued February 1 at 4:31AM EST until February 1 at 9:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 1, 7:03 AM -> Feb 1, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 1 at 7:03AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 1, 9:00 AM -> Feb 1, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 1 at 9:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Confidence
65%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Sunday, February 1, 2026.

Temperature
±2.3°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±0.06"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±1.4mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
27° / 8°
Actual
28° / 7°
Error: -1°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.05"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 15 mph
Actual
5 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
25° / 7°
Actual
29° / 3°
Error: -4°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 12 mph
Actual
6 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
28° / 14°
Actual
31° / 10°
Error: -3°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 18 mph
Actual
5 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
24° / 11°
Actual
29° / 9°
Error: -5°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 15 mph
Actual
5 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
23° / -1°
Actual
23° / 4°
Error: 0°F high, -5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
4 / 10 mph
Actual
4 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
24° / 1°
Actual
28° / -11°
Error: -4°F high, 12°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0.12"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
5 / 10 mph
Actual
3 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
23° / 10°
Actual
24° / 2°
Error: -1°F high, 8°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0.15"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
5 / 12 mph
Actual
3 / 15 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
21° / -3°
Actual
24° / 4°
Error: -3°F high, -7°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
5 / 12 mph
Actual
4 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
21° / 4°
Actual
20° / 4°
Error: 1°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 12 mph
Actual
5 / 16 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
21° / 8°
Actual
21° / 4°
Error: 0°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 14 mph
Actual
4 / 14 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
22° / 7°
Actual
23° / 11°
Error: -1°F high, -4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0.1"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 15 mph
Actual
5 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
21° / 8°
Actual
26° / 10°
Error: -5°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
0.45"
±0.25" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 16 mph
Actual
3 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Frigid Arctic Grip Tightens Across the Commonwealth

An intense Arctic air mass is firmly established across Kentucky, bringing the coldest temperatures of the season. High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will maintain mostly clear skies for the northern and central regions, while weak atmospheric energy produces light, nuisance snow flurries in the southeastern mountains and far western counties.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence exists regarding the frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills. Lower confidence remains for the exact timing and location of trace snow flurries due to significant low-level dry air that may cause precipitation to evaporate before hitting the ground.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Evening Flurries Possible
Snow
27°/ 8°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Cloudy and Bitterly Cold
Cloudy
25°/ 7°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Staying Below Freezing
Cloudy
28°/ 14°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Frigid with a Few Flurries
Cloudy
24°/ 11°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Urban Deep Freeze
Sunny
23°/ -1°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Biting Cold and Sunny
Sunny
24°/ 1°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Sunny but Bitterly Cold
Sunny
23°/ 10°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Sub-Zero Wind Chills
Sunny
21°/ -3°

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Icy Sunshine in Lexington
Sunny
21°/ 4°

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Frigid and Bright
Sunny
21°/ 8°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Frigid Valley Cold
Sunny
22°/ 7°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Light Snow and Bitter Cold
Snow
21°/ 8°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the moisture depth in the southeast is slightly higher than modeled, localized mountain peaks could see up to one inch of fluffy snow accumulation.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the intense low-level dry air wins out, even the light flurries in the west and southeast will evaporate as virga, leaving the state entirely dry but still bitterly cold.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Mountain Flurry Fight

GEM and GFS models suggest enough moisture exists in the 850-700mb layer to produce light snow in the Southeast Coalfields, while the NAM remains bone dry.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
GEM
Why GEM Wins

GEM and GFS typically resolve orographic enhancement better in Arctic regimes where trace moisture is often wrung out by the higher terrain of the Appalachian foothills.

Affected Regions
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDSNORTHEAST KY

The Western Clipper Discrepancy

The Euro brings a late-evening flurry risk to the Purchase region, whereas the GFS and NAM maintain clear to cloudy skies with no precipitation.

EURO
VS
GFS
VS
NAM
Why UNCERTAIN Wins

Confidence is low as the moisture profile is marginal; however, the Euro's handling of late-day shortwaves in zonal flow is often superior, leading to a compromise forecast of trace flurries.

Affected Regions
PURCHASE

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The vertical column is characterized by an isothermal profile well below freezing from the surface to the tropopause. A strong surface-based inversion is present across the northern half of the state due to intense radiational cooling.

Thermal Boundary

The Arctic boundary and its associated 850mb 0C isotherm are located well south of the Kentucky-Tennessee border, leaving the entire state in the deep cold sector.

Diurnal Trend

A non-diurnal temperature curve is expected for many; morning lows in the single digits will recover slowly, but renewed cold air advection will cause temperatures to level off or fall by early afternoon.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

The primary Arctic front has passed; the state is now in a post-frontal regime dominated by rising surface pressures and northerly low-level flow.

Jet Stream Support

Kentucky is situated in the right-exit region of a 120kt jet, providing synoptic subsidence that will generally suppress widespread cloud development.

Energy Status

A weak, moisture-starved shortwave trough is pivoting through the Tennessee Valley, providing localized vorticity maxes of 0.00026 near the southern border.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is extremely dry with dewpoint depressions of 15-20°F at the surface, creating a high risk of virga for any light precipitation attempts.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be light, high-ratio 'dry fluff' snow in the mountains and trace flurries in the west; otherwise, skies will be sunny to partly cloudy.

Flooding Context

Zero hydrologic risk; ground is frozen and any moisture will be in solid form and minimal in volume.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

There is no warm nose; the entire profile is sub-freezing. Snow-to-liquid ratios will be high, likely 15:1 or greater.

Crystal Habit

Snow quality will be small-grain and dendritic, stacking efficiently despite low moisture content.

Road Impact

With road temperatures in the teens, any trace snow will stick immediately, creating localized slick spots on untreated surfaces.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Full Moon

100% Illumination
Moonrise
6:19 PM
Moonset
8:07 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:58 AM
Sunset
6:20 PM
Civil Dawn
7:31 AM
Civil Dusk
6:47 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:53 AM
Sunset
6:12 PM
Civil Dawn
7:26 AM
Civil Dusk
6:40 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:53 AM
Sunset
6:16 PM
Civil Dawn
7:26 AM
Civil Dusk
6:43 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:49 AM
Sunset
6:11 PM
Civil Dawn
7:22 AM
Civil Dusk
6:39 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:49 AM
Sunset
6:06 PM
Civil Dawn
7:21 AM
Civil Dusk
6:34 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:48 AM
Sunset
6:07 PM
Civil Dawn
7:21 AM
Civil Dusk
6:35 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:42 AM
Sunset
6:04 PM
Civil Dawn
7:15 AM
Civil Dusk
6:31 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:46 AM
Sunset
5:59 PM
Civil Dawn
7:17 AM
Civil Dusk
6:27 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:43 AM
Sunset
6:01 PM
Civil Dawn
7:16 AM
Civil Dusk
6:29 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:42 AM
Sunset
6:01 PM
Civil Dawn
7:14 AM
Civil Dusk
6:29 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:37 AM
Sunset
5:53 PM
Civil Dawn
7:09 AM
Civil Dusk
6:21 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:37 AM
Sunset
5:58 PM
Civil Dawn
7:09 AM
Civil Dusk
6:25 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.