kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Thu, Jan 29
Sat, Jan 31
Forecast For

Friday, January 30

Updated Jan 30, 6:00 AM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 1:50 PM -> Jan 29, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 1:50PM EST until January 30 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 1:50 PM -> Jan 29, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 1:50PM EST until January 31 at 3:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 1:50 PM -> Jan 29, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 1:50PM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 1:58 PM -> Jan 30, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 12:58PM CST until January 31 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 2:47 PM -> Jan 30, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 2:47PM EST until January 31 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 3:22 PM -> Jan 29, 11:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 3:22PM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 29, 3:22 PM -> Jan 29, 11:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 29 at 3:22PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 29, 8:30 PM -> Jan 30, 7:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 29 at 8:30PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 9:10 PM -> Jan 30, 7:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 9:10PM EST until January 30 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 9:10 PM -> Jan 30, 7:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 9:10PM EST until January 31 at 3:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 9:10 PM -> Jan 30, 7:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 9:10PM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 29, 10:46 PM -> Jan 30, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 29 at 10:46PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 11:20 PM -> Jan 30, 8:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 11:20PM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 11:36 PM -> Jan 30, 7:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 11:36PM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 11:39 PM -> Jan 30, 11:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 11:39PM EST until January 31 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 1:47 AM -> Jan 30, 5:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 12:47AM CST until January 31 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 3:35 AM -> Jan 30, 4:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 3:35AM EST until January 31 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 30, 4:28 AM -> Jan 30, 8:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 30 at 4:28AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 4:54 AM -> Jan 30, 1:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 4:54AM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 30, 5:12 AM -> Jan 30, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 30 at 4:12AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 6:36 AM -> Jan 30, 2:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 6:36AM EST until January 30 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 6:36 AM -> Jan 30, 2:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 6:36AM EST until January 31 at 3:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 6:36 AM -> Jan 30, 2:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 6:36AM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 6:38 AM -> Jan 30, 4:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 6:38AM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 30, 6:44 AM -> Jan 30, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 30 at 6:44AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 30, 8:00 AM -> Jan 30, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 30 at 8:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 30, 9:58 AM -> Jan 30, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 30 at 8:58AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 10:38 AM -> Jan 30, 6:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 10:38AM EST until January 31 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 11:14 AM -> Jan 30, 7:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 11:14AM EST until January 31 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Jan 30, 12:00 PM -> Jan 30, 5:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 30 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 12:33 PM -> Jan 30, 8:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 12:33PM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 1:46 PM -> Jan 31, 5:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 1:46PM EST until January 31 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 30, 1:55 PM -> Jan 30, 10:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 30 at 1:55PM EST until January 31 at 4:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 1:55 PM -> Jan 30, 7:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 1:55PM EST until January 30 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 1:55 PM -> Jan 30, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 1:55PM EST until January 31 at 3:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 1:55 PM -> Jan 30, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 1:55PM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 2:16 PM -> Jan 31, 5:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 1:16PM CST until January 31 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 3:18 PM -> Jan 30, 11:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 3:18PM EST until January 31 at 3:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 3:18 PM -> Jan 30, 11:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 3:18PM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 30, 3:18 PM -> Jan 30, 11:30 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 30 at 3:18PM EST until January 31 at 4:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 3:19 PM -> Jan 30, 11:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 3:19PM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 30, 4:59 PM -> Jan 30, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 30 at 4:59PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 5:30 PM -> Jan 31, 1:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 5:30PM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 5:30 PM -> Jan 31, 1:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 5:30PM EST until January 31 at 3:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 30, 5:30 PM -> Jan 31, 1:30 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 30 at 5:30PM EST until January 31 at 4:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 30, 6:28 PM -> Jan 31, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 30 at 6:28PM EST until January 31 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Confidence
60%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Friday, January 30, 2026.

Temperature
±3.4°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±1.40"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±4.1mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
24° / 15°
Actual
35° / 16°
Error: -11°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.1"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 25 mph
Actual
9 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
24° / 16°
Actual
27° / 11°
Error: -3°F high, 5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
1.45"
±1.25" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 20 mph
Actual
7 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
26° / 18°
Actual
31° / 17°
Error: -5°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
1.13"
±0.9299999999999999" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 24 mph
Actual
8 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
28° / 20°
Actual
29° / 18°
Error: -1°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.5"
Actual
0"
±0.5" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 18 mph
Actual
5 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
24° / 15°
Actual
24° / 11°
Error: 0°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 19 mph
Actual
6 / 17 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
27° / 17°
Actual
27° / 15°
Error: 0°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.5"
Actual
4.64"
±4.14" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 20 mph
Actual
4 / 17 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
26° / 18°
Actual
29° / 18°
Error: -3°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.7"
Actual
2.33"
±1.6300000000000001" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 17 mph
Actual
4 / 15 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
20° / 1°
Actual
21° / 7°
Error: -1°F high, -6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 17 mph
Actual
6 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
22° / 13°
Actual
32° / 16°
Error: -10°F high, -3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 21 mph
Actual
6 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
24° / 16°
Actual
25° / 19°
Error: -1°F high, -3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.5"
Actual
0.14"
±0.36" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 18 mph
Actual
4 / 16 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
22° / 10°
Actual
24° / 14°
Error: -2°F high, -4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 18 mph
Actual
4 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
24° / 17°
Actual
28° / 16°
Error: -4°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
1.5"
Actual
9.39"
±7.890000000000001" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 15 mph
Actual
2 / 15 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Arctic Air Grips Kentucky with Scattered Light Snow

A frigid arctic air mass is firmly entrenched across the Commonwealth, bringing dangerously cold temperatures and scattered light, powdery snow showers. The most persistent snow will focus across the southern and eastern regions, while Northern Kentucky remains dry but bitterly cold with sub-zero wind chills.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

Confidence is very high for the temperature profile and the presence of clouds/flurries. However, confidence is lower regarding exact accumulation totals due to the high risk of virga/sublimation in the dry arctic air.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Morning Flurries and Frigid Air
Snow
24°/ 15°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
A Dusting of Morning Snow
Snow
24°/ 16°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Light Snow and Cold
Snow
26°/ 18°

Barren River

IMPACTFUL
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Persistent Light Snow Showers
Snow
28°/ 20°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Frigid and Cloudy
Cloudy
24°/ 15°

Lincoln Trail

IMPACTFUL
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Light Snow Accumulation Expected
Snow
27°/ 17°

Lake Cumberland

IMPACTFUL
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Accumulating Snow This Afternoon
Snow
26°/ 18°

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Covington, Florence, Independence
Bitterly Cold; Dangerously Low Wind Chills
Cloudy
20°/ 1°

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Frigid with Passing Flurries
Cloudy
22°/ 13°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Light Snow Dusting
Snow
24°/ 16°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Valley Cold and Gray
Cloudy
22°/ 10°

Southeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Statewide Maximum Snow Totals
Snow
24°/ 17°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the mid-level moisture fetch is slightly more robust and overcomes the low-level dry air quickly, a broad swath of 1-2 inches of snow could develop across the southern half of the state, with up to 3 inches in the Southeast Coalfields.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the low-level dry air remains dominant, much of the moisture will sublimate as virga, resulting in nothing more than scattered flurries and trace accumulations for most of the state.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Virga vs. Accumulation War

The NAM and Euro highlight significant dry air in the sub-cloud layer (below 850mb), suggesting much of the light precipitation will evaporate before reaching the ground. The GEM and GFS are more aggressive, suggesting the forcing is strong enough to saturate the column and produce measurable accumulation.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

The NAM typically handles the resolution of shallow arctic air masses and associated dry-air entrainment better than global models in the 0-48h window. Its more conservative QPF totals are more realistic given the high dewpoint depressions.

Affected Regions
LOUISVILLE METROBLUEGRASS COREPURCHASENORTHEAST KY

The Orographic Enhancement Split

Global models (GEM/GFS) show a significant boost in precipitation totals across the Southeast Coalfields due to upslope flow, while the NAM remains more muted.

GEM
VS
GFS
VS
NAM
Why GEM Wins

The GEM often excels in cold-sector orographic scenarios, correctly identifying the ability of higher terrain to squeeze out moisture even in dry arctic regimes.

Affected Regions
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDSBLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The vertical profile is entirely sub-freezing from the surface to the troposphere. A classic arctic profile is in place with no warm nose or melting layers present.

Thermal Boundary

The arctic boundary is located well south of the state, centered over the Gulf Coast states, leaving all of Kentucky in the deep cold sector.

Diurnal Trend

A flat or non-diurnal curve is expected. Cold air advection (CAA) will offset any solar gain, keeping temperatures nearly steady or falling slightly during the afternoon hours.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No surface front; the state is in a post-frontal regime dominated by a 1032mb high pressure system centered to the northwest.

Jet Stream Support

The right-entrance region of a 110kt upper-level jet provides broad synoptic lift, particularly across the southern tier of the state.

Energy Status

A series of compact, fast-moving shortwave troughs are embedded in the cyclonic flow, providing the localized vorticity needed for snow shower development.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is saturated in the mid-levels (850-700mb) but features a significant 'dry slot' near the surface with 10-15 degree dewpoint depressions.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be light, dry, stratiform snow. The high snow-to-liquid ratios (SLRs) of 15:1 mean any accumulation will be very fluffy.

Flooding Context

No flooding risk. Soils are frozen/cold and precipitation totals are minimal.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

The entire saturated layer resides within the Dendritic Growth Zone (-12C to -18C), maximizing snowflake size and stacking efficiency.

Crystal Habit

Expect high-quality stellar dendrites. These will be prone to blowing and drifting even in modest winds.

Road Impact

Pavement temperatures are well below the freezing mark (sub-25F), ensuring that any snow that reaches the ground will stick immediately to untreated surfaces.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

93% Illumination
Moonrise
3:52 PM
Moonset
6:36 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
8:00 AM
Sunset
6:17 PM
Civil Dawn
7:32 AM
Civil Dusk
6:45 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:55 AM
Sunset
6:10 PM
Civil Dawn
7:27 AM
Civil Dusk
6:38 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:55 AM
Sunset
6:13 PM
Civil Dawn
7:27 AM
Civil Dusk
6:41 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:51 AM
Sunset
6:09 PM
Civil Dawn
7:23 AM
Civil Dusk
6:37 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:51 AM
Sunset
6:04 PM
Civil Dawn
7:23 AM
Civil Dusk
6:32 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:50 AM
Sunset
6:05 PM
Civil Dawn
7:22 AM
Civil Dusk
6:33 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:44 AM
Sunset
6:01 PM
Civil Dawn
7:16 AM
Civil Dusk
6:29 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:47 AM
Sunset
5:57 PM
Civil Dawn
7:19 AM
Civil Dusk
6:25 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:45 AM
Sunset
5:59 PM
Civil Dawn
7:17 AM
Civil Dusk
6:27 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:44 AM
Sunset
5:59 PM
Civil Dawn
7:16 AM
Civil Dusk
6:27 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:39 AM
Sunset
5:51 PM
Civil Dawn
7:10 AM
Civil Dusk
6:19 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:38 AM
Sunset
5:55 PM
Civil Dawn
7:11 AM
Civil Dusk
6:23 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.