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Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Wed, Jan 28
Fri, Jan 30
Forecast For

Thursday, January 29

Updated Jan 29, 8:54 AM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 1:50 PM -> Jan 29, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 1:50PM EST until January 30 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 1:50 PM -> Jan 29, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 1:50PM EST until January 31 at 3:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 1:50 PM -> Jan 29, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 1:50PM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 1:58 PM -> Jan 30, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 12:58PM CST until January 31 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 2:47 PM -> Jan 30, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 2:47PM EST until January 31 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 29, 3:22 PM -> Jan 29, 11:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 3:22PM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 29, 3:22 PM -> Jan 29, 11:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 29 at 3:22PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Confidence
45%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Thursday, January 29, 2026.

Temperature
±1.8°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±1.52"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±2.3mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
35° / 15°
Actual
39° / 14°
Error: -4°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 14 mph
Actual
3 / 11 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
31° / 14°
Actual
34° / 19°
Error: -3°F high, -5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 10 mph
Actual
4 / 15 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
35° / 13°
Actual
36° / 13°
Error: -1°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 13 mph
Actual
4 / 15 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
34° / 15°
Actual
34° / 18°
Error: 0°F high, -3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 9 mph
Actual
2 / 11 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
25° / 7°
Actual
26° / 8°
Error: -1°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.1"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
4 / 8 mph
Actual
3 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
30° / 13°
Actual
31° / 7°
Error: -1°F high, 6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
3.34"
±3.34" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
5 / 8 mph
Actual
1 / 10 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
31° / 13°
Actual
33° / 12°
Error: -2°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
8.78"
±8.78" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
3 / 5 mph
Actual
1 / 8 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
21° / 0°
Actual
24° / 2°
Error: -3°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
4 / 7 mph
Actual
3 / 14 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
26° / 5°
Actual
25° / 5°
Error: 1°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.1"
Actual
4.98"
±4.880000000000001" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
4 / 7 mph
Actual
2 / 15 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
28° / 10°
Actual
27° / 9°
Error: 1°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
3 / 6 mph
Actual
1 / 8 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
25° / 5°
Actual
26° / -5°
Error: -1°F high, 10°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0.8"
±0.8" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
3 / 9 mph
Actual
2 / 16 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
28° / 11°
Actual
31° / 7°
Error: -3°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0.29"
±0.29" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
2 / 4 mph
Actual
2 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Statewide Deep Freeze; Late Flurries for North-Central KY

A powerful Arctic air mass will maintain a firm grip on the Commonwealth today. Expect a frigid morning with sub-zero wind chills in the north and east, followed by a mostly dry day. A weak disturbance late this evening may bring scattered light snow flurries to the I-64 corridor, though no significant accumulation is expected.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in the temperature regime and deep arctic cold. However, confidence is low regarding the ability of the weak late-day wave to overcome the dry boundary layer and produce measurable snow.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Cold and Mostly Cloudy
Cloudy
35°/ 15°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Frigid with Increasing Clouds
Cloudy
31°/ 14°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Chilly and Bright
Cloudy
35°/ 13°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Cold Sunlight
Cloudy
34°/ 15°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Bitter Cold; Evening Flurries
Snow
25°/ 7°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Frigid and Overcast
Cloudy
30°/ 13°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Stuck in the Deep Freeze
Cloudy
31°/ 13°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Dangerous Cold Morning
Cloudy
21°/ 0°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Frigid with Evening Flurries
Snow
26°/ 5°

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Cold and Quiet
Cloudy
28°/ 10°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Frigid Valley Cold
Sunny
25°/ 5°

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Cold and Calm
Sunny
28°/ 11°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If mid-level moisture recovers faster than anticipated, a corridor of light snow showers could produce a quick 0.1 to 0.3 inches of accumulation across North-Central Kentucky. On frigid road surfaces, even this dusting would create immediate slick spots for the evening commute.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The dry Arctic air mass wins out completely, evaporating any falling flurries before they reach the ground. This results in a completely dry but bone-chilling day with zero travel impacts.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Cold Floor Conflict

GEM is significantly more aggressive with radiational cooling, dropping temperatures below zero in several regions (Louisville -2, Lexington -1). The GFS and ECMWF are roughly 10-12 degrees warmer.

GEM
VS
GFS
VS
ECMWF
Why GEM Wins

GEM typically handles the depth of Arctic air and radiational cooling in sheltered valleys better than the global GFS/Euro, though its Louisville value is likely over-extrapolated.

Affected Regions
LOUISVILLE METROBLUEGRASS CORENORTHEAST KYNORTHERN KY

The Late-Day Saturation Struggle

The ECMWF is the lone outlier suggesting enough mid-level moisture arrives to generate light measurable snow (0.01" liquid) across the Louisville and Lexington metros. Both the GFS and GEM keep the column too dry for anything beyond virga or scattered flurries.

ECMWF
VS
GFS
VS
GEM
Why NONE Wins

Confidence is too low to favor a single model; the forecast blends these solutions by introducing low PoPs (20-30%) for flurries while keeping accumulation at a trace to 0.1 inches.

Affected Regions
LOUISVILLE METROBLUEGRASS CORENORTHERN KY

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A classic Arctic profile with an intense surface-based inversion and 850mb temperatures averaging -14C. The entire vertical column is well below freezing.

Thermal Boundary

The 0C isotherm is pushed south of the Tennessee border, keeping the entire Commonwealth in the deep freeze.

Diurnal Trend

Suppressed diurnal curve; while solar modification will occur, the depth of the cold air mass keeps afternoon highs 15-20 degrees below seasonal norms.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

None. The region is in a stable post-frontal environment with high pressure building from the north.

Jet Stream Support

Kentucky is situated in the left-exit region of the southern stream jet, which typically favors subsidence, though the weak mid-level impulse provides enough lift for high clouds.

Energy Status

A weak, high-based shortwave trough pivots through between 18z and 03z, providing the only source of lift for potential flurries.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Extremely dry below 700mb. PWAT values are near 0.18", indicating a severe risk of virga where precipitation does attempt to form.

Precipitation Character

Stratiform flurries or very light snow showers. Any accumulation would be powdery with high snow-to-liquid ratios (18:1).

Flooding Context

Zero risk. Ground is frozen or near-freezing.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

86% Illumination
Moonrise
2:43 PM
Moonset
5:35 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
8:00 AM
Sunset
6:16 PM
Civil Dawn
7:33 AM
Civil Dusk
6:44 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:56 AM
Sunset
6:09 PM
Civil Dawn
7:28 AM
Civil Dusk
6:37 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:55 AM
Sunset
6:12 PM
Civil Dawn
7:28 AM
Civil Dusk
6:40 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:52 AM
Sunset
6:08 PM
Civil Dawn
7:24 AM
Civil Dusk
6:35 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:51 AM
Sunset
6:02 PM
Civil Dawn
7:23 AM
Civil Dusk
6:30 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:51 AM
Sunset
6:04 PM
Civil Dawn
7:23 AM
Civil Dusk
6:32 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:44 AM
Sunset
6:00 PM
Civil Dawn
7:17 AM
Civil Dusk
6:28 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:48 AM
Sunset
5:56 PM
Civil Dawn
7:20 AM
Civil Dusk
6:24 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:46 AM
Sunset
5:58 PM
Civil Dawn
7:18 AM
Civil Dusk
6:26 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:44 AM
Sunset
5:58 PM
Civil Dawn
7:17 AM
Civil Dusk
6:25 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:39 AM
Sunset
5:49 PM
Civil Dawn
7:11 AM
Civil Dusk
6:18 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:39 AM
Sunset
5:54 PM
Civil Dawn
7:11 AM
Civil Dusk
6:22 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.