Thursday, January 29
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 1:50PM EST until January 30 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to one inch, greatest amounts over the southern portion of each county.
WHERE Estill, Johnson, and Lee Counties.
WHEN From 6 AM to 7 PM EST Friday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 1:50PM EST until January 31 at 3:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.
WHERE Portions of northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From 6 AM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 1:50PM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible, especially at elevations above 1,500 feet.
WHERE Portions of south central and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From 6 AM Friday to noon EST Saturday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Cold Weather Advisory
Cold Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 12:58PM CST until January 31 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Very cold wind chills as low as 11 below expected.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN From midnight CST /1 AM EST/ Friday Night to noon CST /1 PM EST/ Saturday.
IMPACTS The cold wind chills as low as 10 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.
Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.
Cold Weather Advisory
Cold Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 2:47PM EST until January 31 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Very cold wind chills as low as 11 below expected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and central Kentucky.
WHEN From 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday.
IMPACTS The cold wind chills as low as 11 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.
Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Keep pets indoors as much as possible. Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills inside.
Cold Weather Advisory
Cold Weather Advisory issued January 29 at 3:22PM EST until January 31 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Very cold wind chills as low as 0 to 10 below expected.
WHERE Portions of east central, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From 1 AM to noon EST Saturday.
IMPACTS The cold wind chills as low as 10 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.
Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 29 at 3:22PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
A narrow band of light snow is expected to develop tonight as far north as the I-64 corridor. However, this swath of snow will then spread southeast across central and eastern Kentucky Friday morning into the afternoon hours. Minor accumulation of dry, fluffy snow is possible - perhaps up to an inch east of I-65 and south of the Bluegrass Parkway. East-central Kentucky, especially the I-75 corridor from Richmond southward, has the best chance of seeing 1 inch or more of accumulation. This band of light snow could quickly coat previously plowed/treated roads once again, which could lead to minor travel impacts on top of the lingering impacts from the winter storm. Slow down and use caution while traveling.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Thursday, January 29, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Statewide Deep Freeze; Late Flurries for North-Central KY
A powerful Arctic air mass will maintain a firm grip on the Commonwealth today. Expect a frigid morning with sub-zero wind chills in the north and east, followed by a mostly dry day. A weak disturbance late this evening may bring scattered light snow flurries to the I-64 corridor, though no significant accumulation is expected.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the temperature regime and deep arctic cold. However, confidence is low regarding the ability of the weak late-day wave to overcome the dry boundary layer and produce measurable snow.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect clouds to thicken throughout the day with temperatures barely reaching the mid-30s. No precipitation is expected.
Northwest Pennyrile
Temperatures will hover near the freezing mark all afternoon after a very cold start. Skies will turn overcast by evening.
Southwest Pennyrile
A mix of sun and clouds is expected with highs in the mid-30s. Morning wind chills will be in the single digits.
Barren River
Mostly sunny morning followed by afternoon clouds. Highs will stay in the mid-30s.
Louisville Metro
Highs only in the mid-20s today. Scattered snow flurries are possible this evening, with around a dusting likely on cold surfaces.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a cloudy day with temperatures staying below freezing. No significant snow is expected.
Lake Cumberland
Highs will struggle to reach 31 degrees under cloudy skies. A very cold start with lows in the low teens.
Northern Kentucky
Morning wind chills will be well below zero. Afternoon highs will only reach 21 degrees with evening flurries possible.
Inner Bluegrass
Highs in the mid-20s. Expect light snow flurries after sunset. A trace of snow may accumulate on cold roads.
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunny morning skies will give way to clouds. Temperatures will remain below freezing all day.
Northeast Kentucky
Highs will only reach the mid-20s. Morning temperatures in the single digits will create biting wind chills.
Southeast Kentucky
A calm and sunny morning for the mountains. Temperatures will stay below freezing with very little wind.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If mid-level moisture recovers faster than anticipated, a corridor of light snow showers could produce a quick 0.1 to 0.3 inches of accumulation across North-Central Kentucky. On frigid road surfaces, even this dusting would create immediate slick spots for the evening commute.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The dry Arctic air mass wins out completely, evaporating any falling flurries before they reach the ground. This results in a completely dry but bone-chilling day with zero travel impacts.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Cold Floor Conflict
GEM is significantly more aggressive with radiational cooling, dropping temperatures below zero in several regions (Louisville -2, Lexington -1). The GFS and ECMWF are roughly 10-12 degrees warmer.
Why GEM Wins
GEM typically handles the depth of Arctic air and radiational cooling in sheltered valleys better than the global GFS/Euro, though its Louisville value is likely over-extrapolated.
The Late-Day Saturation Struggle
The ECMWF is the lone outlier suggesting enough mid-level moisture arrives to generate light measurable snow (0.01" liquid) across the Louisville and Lexington metros. Both the GFS and GEM keep the column too dry for anything beyond virga or scattered flurries.
Why NONE Wins
Confidence is too low to favor a single model; the forecast blends these solutions by introducing low PoPs (20-30%) for flurries while keeping accumulation at a trace to 0.1 inches.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.