kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Tue, Jan 27
Thu, Jan 29
Forecast For

Wednesday, January 28

Updated Jan 28, 7:43 AM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 27, 10:22 AM -> Jan 27, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 27 at 10:22AM EST until January 28 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 27, 12:49 PM -> Jan 27, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 27 at 12:49PM EST until January 28 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 27, 3:53 PM -> Jan 28, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 27 at 3:53PM EST until January 28 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 27, 4:58 PM -> Jan 28, 1:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 27 at 4:58PM EST until January 28 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 27, 8:16 PM -> Jan 28, 5:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 27 at 8:16PM EST until January 28 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 27, 11:07 PM -> Jan 28, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 27 at 11:07PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Jan 27, 11:30 PM -> Jan 28, 3:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 27 at 11:30PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 28, 1:00 AM -> Jan 28, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 28 at 1:00AM EST until January 28 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 28, 4:00 AM -> Jan 28, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 28 at 4:00AM EST until January 28 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 28, 4:07 AM -> Jan 28, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 28 at 4:07AM EST until January 28 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 28, 11:38 AM -> Jan 28, 12:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 28 at 11:38AM EST until January 28 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Confidence
70%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Wednesday, January 28, 2026.

Temperature
±2.7°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±0.10"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±6.5mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
30° / 8°
Actual
32° / 8°
Error: -2°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 12 mph
Actual
2 / 10 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
25° / 2°
Actual
30° / -6°
Error: -5°F high, 8°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 18 mph
Actual
3 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
29° / 8°
Actual
31° / 5°
Error: -2°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 14 mph
Actual
3 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
27° / 7°
Actual
27° / 5°
Error: 0°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
1.05"
±1.05" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 13 mph
Actual
0 / 8 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
22° / 4°
Actual
22° / 6°
Error: 0°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 20 mph
Actual
7 / 24 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
23° / 5°
Actual
25° / -4°
Error: -2°F high, 9°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 20 mph
Actual
2 / 17 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
26° / 10°
Actual
28° / 6°
Error: -2°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 25 mph
Actual
1 / 14 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
18° / 2°
Actual
20° / 3°
Error: -2°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 22 mph
Actual
5 / 23 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
20° / 4°
Actual
32° / 6°
Error: -12°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 25 mph
Actual
3 / 23 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
23° / 8°
Actual
22° / 7°
Error: 1°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 25 mph
Actual
0 / 0 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
22° / 9°
Actual
24° / -2°
Error: -2°F high, 11°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.1"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 21 mph
Actual
5 / 26 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
26° / 14°
Actual
28° / 6°
Error: -2°F high, 8°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.1"
Actual
0.04"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 24 mph
Actual
4 / 25 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Arctic Grip: Dangerous Wind Chills and Deep Freeze

An intense Arctic high-pressure system will dominate Kentucky, bringing the coldest air of the season. Sub-zero wind chills are expected for many Wednesday morning under mostly clear skies, with light flurries possible in the eastern mountains.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High agreement on the overall synoptic setup and the presence of extreme cold; however, minor differences in morning minimums and the existence of light mountain flurries introduce some volatility.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Frigid with Bitter Mornings
Sunny
30°/ 8°

Northwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Sub-Zero Chills Near the Ohio River
Sunny
25°/ 2°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Sunny but Frigid Border to Border
Sunny
29°/ 8°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Cold Sinkhole Conditions in Bowling Green
Sunny
27°/ 7°

Louisville Metro

IMPACTFUL
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Brutal Cold Grips the Metro
Sunny
22°/ 4°

Lincoln Trail

IMPACTFUL
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Arctic Blast for the Escarpment
Sunny
23°/ 5°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Cold Winds and Sunny Skies at the Lake
Sunny
26°/ 10°

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Covington, Florence, Independence
Extreme Cold: -12 Wind Chills
Sunny
18°/ 2°

Inner Bluegrass

IMPACTFUL
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Frigid and Blustery Lexington
Sunny
20°/ 4°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Bitter Breezes in the Foothills
Sunny
23°/ 8°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Morning Flurries and Bitter Cold
Snow
22°/ 9°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Early Snow Showers in the Mountains
Snow
26°/ 14°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the morning winds decouple completely, sheltered valleys could see actual temperatures drop to -5°F, and if the shallow moisture in the East is deeper, localized dustings of 0.5" could occur in the Coalfields.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the mid-level cloud deck arrives earlier and thicker than expected, it may provide enough insulation to keep morning lows in the low teens rather than single digits, though daytime highs would suffer further.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Eastern Flurry Feud

The GEM shows persistent low-level saturation below 850mb in the eastern mountains, suggesting light snow showers/flurries, while the GFS and NAM maintain a bone-dry column.

GEM
VS
GFS
VS
NAM
Why GEM Wins

The GEM typically resolves shallow arctic moisture and orographic lift in the eastern KY terrain more accurately than global GFS or coarser NAM runs in this specific regime.

Affected Regions
NORTHEAST KYSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

The Arctic Floor War

Disagreement exists on the magnitude of the morning low. GEM and GFS are aggressive with sub-zero temperatures in the Metro corridors, while NAM/Euro favor low single digits.

GEM
VS
GFS
VS
NAM
Why NAM Wins

Inside 48 hours, the NAM's high-resolution boundary layer physics generally captures the balance between CAA and the urban heat island effect more effectively.

Affected Regions
LOUISVILLE METRONORTHERN KYBLUEGRASS CORE

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

Deep Arctic airmass (cPk) characterized by an entirely sub-freezing profile from surface to 300mb. A sharp surface-based inversion is likely in areas with light winds.

Thermal Boundary

The Arctic front is far to the south, stalled along the Gulf Coast, leaving Kentucky in the core of the cold sector.

Diurnal Trend

Suppressed diurnal curve. Morning lows will be driven by high-efficiency radiational cooling where skies clear, with only modest afternoon recovery despite solar insulation.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

Post-frontal regime; primary front passed 24-36 hours prior. Persistent north-northwesterly wind shift is the primary indicator.

Jet Stream Support

The region sits in the right-exit region of the polar jet, providing strong synoptic-scale subsidence to suppress precipitation.

Energy Status

Broad anticyclonic flow dominates, though a weak moisture-starved shortwave trough will provide some mid-to-high level cloud cover in the afternoon.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Critically dry atmospheric column (PWAT < 0.15"). Large dewpoint depressions mean any virga from mid-level clouds will likely evaporate before reaching the ground, except in the East.

Precipitation Character

Mostly non-existent. Any flurries in the mountains will be light, fluffy, and stratiform in nature.

Flooding Context

Zero risk. Ground is frozen or freezing across the entire state.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

No warm nose present; thermal profile is entirely below freezing. Any moisture will fall as snow.

Crystal Habit

Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ) is compressed near the surface (1000-850mb), supporting high snow-to-liquid ratios (15:1) for any flurries.

Road Impact

Dry roads statewide. Only minor nuisance impacts possible in the far east on untreated surfaces due to light dusting.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

77% Illumination
Moonrise
1:42 PM
Moonset
4:24 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
8:01 AM
Sunset
6:15 PM
Civil Dawn
7:33 AM
Civil Dusk
6:43 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:56 AM
Sunset
6:08 PM
Civil Dawn
7:29 AM
Civil Dusk
6:36 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:56 AM
Sunset
6:11 PM
Civil Dawn
7:29 AM
Civil Dusk
6:39 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:52 AM
Sunset
6:07 PM
Civil Dawn
7:25 AM
Civil Dusk
6:34 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:52 AM
Sunset
6:01 PM
Civil Dawn
7:24 AM
Civil Dusk
6:29 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:51 AM
Sunset
6:03 PM
Civil Dawn
7:23 AM
Civil Dusk
6:31 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:45 AM
Sunset
5:59 PM
Civil Dawn
7:17 AM
Civil Dusk
6:27 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:49 AM
Sunset
5:55 PM
Civil Dawn
7:20 AM
Civil Dusk
6:23 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:47 AM
Sunset
5:57 PM
Civil Dawn
7:19 AM
Civil Dusk
6:25 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:45 AM
Sunset
5:57 PM
Civil Dawn
7:17 AM
Civil Dusk
6:24 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:40 AM
Sunset
5:48 PM
Civil Dawn
7:12 AM
Civil Dusk
6:17 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:40 AM
Sunset
5:53 PM
Civil Dawn
7:12 AM
Civil Dusk
6:21 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.