kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Sat, Jan 24
Mon, Jan 26
Forecast For

Sunday, January 25

Updated Jan 25, 5:49 AM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 24, 11:12 AM -> Jan 25, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 24 at 10:12AM CST until January 26 at 12:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 24, 11:12 AM -> Jan 25, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 24 at 10:12AM CST until January 27 at 10:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 12:11 PM -> Jan 25, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 12:11PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 12:11 PM -> Jan 25, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 12:11PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 12:11 PM -> Jan 25, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 12:11PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 24, 1:27 PM -> Jan 25, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 24 at 1:27PM EST until January 27 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 24, 1:32 PM -> Jan 24, 9:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 24 at 1:32PM EST until January 26 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 24, 1:32 PM -> Jan 24, 9:45 PM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 24 at 1:32PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 1:49 PM -> Jan 24, 10:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 1:49PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 1:49 PM -> Jan 24, 10:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 1:49PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 24, 2:04 PM -> Jan 25, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 24 at 2:04PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 24, 2:04 PM -> Jan 25, 6:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 24 at 2:04PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 24, 2:04 PM -> Jan 25, 6:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 24 at 2:04PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 3:06 PM -> Jan 25, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 3:06PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 3:18 PM -> Jan 25, 6:15 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 2:18PM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 5:08 PM -> Jan 25, 1:15 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 5:08PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 24, 9:04 PM -> Jan 25, 5:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 24 at 9:04PM EST until January 26 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 24, 9:04 PM -> Jan 25, 5:15 AM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 24 at 9:04PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 9:17 PM -> Jan 25, 5:30 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 9:17PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 9:17 PM -> Jan 25, 5:30 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 9:17PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 12:39 AM -> Jan 25, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 11:39PM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Ice Storm Warning

Jan 25, 12:39 AM -> Jan 25, 4:00 PM
Extreme Severity

Ice Storm Warning issued January 24 at 11:39PM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 1:03 AM -> Jan 25, 11:30 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 1:03AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 25, 1:26 AM -> Jan 25, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 25 at 12:26AM CST until January 27 at 10:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 25, 1:26 AM -> Jan 25, 4:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 25 at 12:26AM CST until January 26 at 12:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 1:41 AM -> Jan 25, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 1:41AM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 1:41 AM -> Jan 25, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 1:41AM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 25, 1:42 AM -> Jan 25, 3:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 25 at 1:42AM EST until January 26 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 25, 1:42 AM -> Jan 25, 3:00 PM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 25 at 1:42AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 3:42 AM -> Jan 25, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 3:42AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 3:42 AM -> Jan 25, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 3:42AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 3:42 AM -> Jan 25, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 3:42AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 25, 3:51 AM -> Jan 25, 2:00 PM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 25 at 3:51AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 25, 3:51 AM -> Jan 25, 2:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 25 at 3:51AM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 25, 3:51 AM -> Jan 25, 2:00 PM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 25 at 3:51AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 25, 4:25 AM -> Jan 25, 5:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 25 at 4:25AM EST until January 27 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 4:34 AM -> Jan 25, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 4:34AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 25, 9:06 AM -> Jan 25, 7:00 PM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 25 at 9:06AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Ice Storm Warning

Jan 25, 9:18 AM -> Jan 25, 7:00 PM
Extreme Severity

Ice Storm Warning issued January 25 at 8:18AM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 9:18 AM -> Jan 25, 7:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 8:18AM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 25, 11:15 AM -> Jan 26, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 25 at 11:15AM EST until January 26 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 25, 11:15 AM -> Jan 26, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 25 at 11:15AM EST until January 27 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 25, 11:18 AM -> Jan 25, 7:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 25 at 11:18AM EST until January 26 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 25, 11:18 AM -> Jan 25, 7:30 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 25 at 11:18AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 11:27 AM -> Jan 25, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 11:27AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 1:20 PM -> Jan 25, 9:30 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 1:20PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 1:20 PM -> Jan 25, 9:30 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 1:20PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 25, 1:25 PM -> Jan 26, 6:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 25 at 1:25PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 25, 1:25 PM -> Jan 26, 6:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 25 at 1:25PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 25, 1:25 PM -> Jan 26, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 25 at 1:25PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 25, 1:25 PM -> Jan 26, 6:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 25 at 1:25PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 25, 1:25 PM -> Jan 26, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 25 at 1:25PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 1:52 PM -> Jan 26, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 1:52PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 1:52 PM -> Jan 26, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 1:52PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 1:52 PM -> Jan 26, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 1:52PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 25, 2:42 PM -> Jan 26, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 25 at 1:42PM CST until January 26 at 12:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 25, 2:42 PM -> Jan 26, 4:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 25 at 1:42PM CST until January 27 at 10:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 2:45 PM -> Jan 25, 7:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 1:45PM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Ice Storm Warning

Jan 25, 2:45 PM -> Jan 25, 7:00 PM
Extreme Severity

Ice Storm Warning issued January 25 at 1:45PM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 3:12 PM -> Jan 26, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 3:12PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 25, 5:50 PM -> Jan 26, 2:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 25 at 5:50PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 6:04 PM -> Jan 26, 2:15 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 6:04PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Confidence
45%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Sunday, January 25, 2026.

Temperature
±3.4°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±109.50"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±5.3mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
21° / 14°
Actual
18° / 12°
Error: 3°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
5"
Actual
38.36"
±33.36" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 25 mph
Actual
11 / 25 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
20° / 14°
Actual
15° / 11°
Error: 5°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
13"
Actual
87.69"
±74.69" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 26 mph
Actual
10 / 29 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
25° / 15°
Actual
29° / 12°
Error: -4°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.4"
Actual
134.55"
±134.15" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 26 mph
Actual
6 / 24 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
28° / 15°
Actual
33° / 15°
Error: -5°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.9"
Actual
91.57"
±90.66999999999999" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 26 mph
Actual
3 / 21 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
22° / 15°
Actual
16° / 12°
Error: 6°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
14"
Actual
7.96"
±6.04" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 22 mph
Actual
10 / 24 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
26° / 15°
Actual
31° / 13°
Error: -5°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.6"
Actual
164.34"
±163.74" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 21 mph
Actual
6 / 21 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
35° / 18°
Actual
33° / 16°
Error: 2°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.5"
Actual
212.55"
±212.05" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 22 mph
Actual
2 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
20° / 13°
Actual
16° / 12°
Error: 4°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
16"
Actual
38.23"
±22.229999999999997" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 23 mph
Actual
7 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
29° / 15°
Actual
32° / 13°
Error: -3°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.9"
Actual
63.31"
±62.410000000000004" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 21 mph
Actual
6 / 21 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
33° / 16°
Actual
33° / 15°
Error: 0°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.6"
Actual
42.01"
±41.41" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 19 mph
Actual
3 / 15 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
31° / 18°
Actual
33° / 14°
Error: -2°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
9"
Actual
73.98"
±64.98" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 18 mph
Actual
5 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
38° / 22°
Actual
36° / 16°
Error: 2°F high, 6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
2"
Actual
410.26"
±408.26" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 25 mph
Actual
1 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Dangerous Major Winter Storm: Crippling Ice & Heavy Snow

A powerful and complex winter storm will impact Kentucky on Sunday, January 25, 2026. A massive Arctic air mass will clash with high moisture, resulting in a dual-threat event: heavy, paralyzing snow in the north and west, and a crippling ice storm across central and southern regions.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

Confidence is very high that a major event will occur, but remains low regarding the exact location of the rain/snow/ice transition line, which will have massive implications for local impact types.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

SEVERE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Sleet and Heavy Snow Accumulation
Wintry_Mix
21°/ 14°

Northwest Pennyrile

EXTREME
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Significant Snowfall Expected
Heavy_Snow
20°/ 14°

Southwest Pennyrile

SEVERE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Heavy Icing and Sleet Threat
Wintry_Mix
25°/ 15°

Barren River

EXTREME
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Severe Ice Storm Today
Freezing_Rain
28°/ 15°

Louisville Metro

EXTREME
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Heavy Snow Blankets the City
Heavy_Snow
22°/ 15°

Lincoln Trail

EXTREME
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Dangerous Mix of Heavy Ice and Snow
Wintry_Mix
26°/ 15°

Lake Cumberland

SEVERE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Significant Icing Turning to Rain
Wintry_Mix
35°/ 18°

Northern Kentucky

EXTREME
Covington, Florence, Independence
Buried in Heavy Snow
Heavy_Snow
20°/ 13°

Inner Bluegrass

EXTREME
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Catastrophic Ice Storm Potential
Freezing_Rain
29°/ 15°

Bluegrass Foothills

SEVERE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Significant Glazing Then Heavy Rain
Wintry_Mix
33°/ 16°

Northeast Kentucky

SEVERE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Heavy Snow and Morning Icing
Wintry_Mix
31°/ 18°

Southeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Morning Icy Mix Then Heavy Rain
Heavy_Rain
38°/ 22°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the Arctic air remains more deeply entrenched as suggested by the GEM, snowfall totals could exceed 20 inches in the northern half of the state, and the icing corridor would shift significantly further south, potentially sparing the Bluegrass from ice and replacing it with massive snow.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the 850mb warm nose pushes further north or the dry slot arrives early as hinted by the Euro, icing would transition to rain more quickly, reducing ice accumulation and limiting snow totals in the Louisville-Lexington corridor to the 6-8 inch range.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Warm Nose War

The primary conflict involves the northward extent and magnitude of the 850mb warm nose. NAM and GFS models are aggressive with a deep melting layer, forecasting a major ice storm for Central KY. The Euro and GEM keep the column colder, suggesting nearly all snow for Lexington.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

In overrunning scenarios with shallow Arctic air, the NAM's high-resolution nested grids typically handle the 'warm nose' and surface cold air damming with superior precision compared to global models.

Affected Regions
BLUEGRASS CORELINCOLN TRAILBARREN RIVERSOUTHWEST PENNYRILE

The Snow Efficiency Gap

Models disagree on snow-to-liquid ratios. GFS and GEM use 15:1 ratios for extreme totals (18-24"), while the NAM and Euro suggest wetter snow or mixing, capping totals closer to 12-14".

GFS
VS
GEM
VS
NAM
Why EURO Wins

The GFS/GEM totals appear as statistical outliers; the Euro's handling of moisture and more conservative 12:1 ratios aligns better with historical climatology for the Ohio Valley during high-moisture events.

Affected Regions
LOUISVILLE METRONORTHERN KYNORTHWEST PENNYRILE

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A strong thermal inversion is present. Surface temperatures range from 15-25F across the north, while an intense warm nose of +4C to +7C at 850mb exists from central KY southward.

Thermal Boundary

The 850mb freezing line is stalled near the Ohio River, while the surface freezing line is suppressed near the Tennessee border.

Diurnal Trend

Non-diurnal temperature curves are expected. Temperatures will likely fall during the day in central and southern KY as Arctic air surges southward and precipitation intensifies.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A primary Arctic front will pass from west to east between 12z and 18z, evidenced by a sharp wind shift to the northwest and rapid temperature drops.

Jet Stream Support

Strong support from the right entrance region of a 125kt jet streak, promoting vigorous large-scale ascent.

Energy Status

A compact, high-vorticity shortwave trough is pivoting through the mean flow, with peak vorticity advection expected between 09z and 15z.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The atmospheric column is deeply saturated (PWATs ~1.0") through 400mb; there is no risk of virga as precipitation will reach the ground immediately.

Precipitation Character

Stratiform precipitation with embedded mesoscale bands of high-intensity snow and freezing rain.

Flooding Context

Minimal flooding risk due to the majority of precipitation being frozen, although 1.0"+ of liquid rain in the far southeast could cause minor runoff issues.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

The central corridor features a 4,000-foot melting layer above a 1,500-foot surface freezing layer—a classic high-efficiency icing signature.

Crystal Habit

Northern Kentucky will be in the Dendritic Growth Zone (-12C to -18C), favoring large, fluffy stellar dendrites with high accumulation efficiency.

Road Impact

Flash freeze conditions are certain. Snow and ice will bond immediately to all surfaces given the sub-freezing road temperatures.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

First Quarter

43% Illumination
Moonrise
11:33 AM
Moonset
12:39 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
8:03 AM
Sunset
6:12 PM
Civil Dawn
7:35 AM
Civil Dusk
6:40 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:58 AM
Sunset
6:04 PM
Civil Dawn
7:30 AM
Civil Dusk
6:32 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:58 AM
Sunset
6:08 PM
Civil Dawn
7:30 AM
Civil Dusk
6:36 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:54 AM
Sunset
6:04 PM
Civil Dawn
7:26 AM
Civil Dusk
6:31 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:54 AM
Sunset
5:58 PM
Civil Dawn
7:26 AM
Civil Dusk
6:26 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:53 AM
Sunset
6:00 PM
Civil Dawn
7:25 AM
Civil Dusk
6:28 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:47 AM
Sunset
5:56 PM
Civil Dawn
7:19 AM
Civil Dusk
6:24 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:51 AM
Sunset
5:51 PM
Civil Dawn
7:22 AM
Civil Dusk
6:20 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:49 AM
Sunset
5:53 PM
Civil Dawn
7:20 AM
Civil Dusk
6:22 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:47 AM
Sunset
5:53 PM
Civil Dawn
7:19 AM
Civil Dusk
6:21 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:42 AM
Sunset
5:45 PM
Civil Dawn
7:14 AM
Civil Dusk
6:13 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:42 AM
Sunset
5:50 PM
Civil Dawn
7:14 AM
Civil Dusk
6:18 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.