kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Sun, Jan 25
Tue, Jan 27
Forecast For

Monday, January 26

Updated Jan 26, 5:49 AM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 25, 11:15 AM -> Jan 26, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 25 at 11:15AM EST until January 26 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 25, 11:15 AM -> Jan 26, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 25 at 11:15AM EST until January 27 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 25, 11:18 AM -> Jan 25, 7:30 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 25 at 11:18AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 25, 11:18 AM -> Jan 25, 7:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 25 at 11:18AM EST until January 26 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 11:27 AM -> Jan 25, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 11:27AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 1:20 PM -> Jan 25, 9:30 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 1:20PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 1:20 PM -> Jan 25, 9:30 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 1:20PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 25, 1:25 PM -> Jan 26, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 25 at 1:25PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 25, 1:25 PM -> Jan 26, 6:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 25 at 1:25PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 25, 1:25 PM -> Jan 26, 6:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 25 at 1:25PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 25, 1:25 PM -> Jan 26, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 25 at 1:25PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 25, 1:25 PM -> Jan 26, 6:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 25 at 1:25PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 1:52 PM -> Jan 26, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 1:52PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 1:52 PM -> Jan 26, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 1:52PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 1:52 PM -> Jan 26, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 1:52PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 25, 2:42 PM -> Jan 26, 4:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 25 at 1:42PM CST until January 27 at 10:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 25, 2:42 PM -> Jan 26, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 25 at 1:42PM CST until January 26 at 12:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 3:12 PM -> Jan 26, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 3:12PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 25, 5:50 PM -> Jan 26, 2:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 25 at 5:50PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 6:04 PM -> Jan 26, 2:15 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 6:04PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 25, 7:19 PM -> Jan 26, 5:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 25 at 7:19PM EST until January 26 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 25, 7:19 PM -> Jan 26, 5:30 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 25 at 7:19PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 25, 8:10 PM -> Jan 26, 2:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 25 at 8:10PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 9:07 PM -> Jan 26, 5:30 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 9:07PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 9:07 PM -> Jan 26, 5:30 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 9:07PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 11:35 PM -> Jan 26, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 11:35PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 11:35 PM -> Jan 26, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 11:35PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 25, 11:35 PM -> Jan 26, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 25 at 11:35PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 12:26 AM -> Jan 26, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 12:26AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 12:26 AM -> Jan 26, 11:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 12:26AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 26, 12:29 AM -> Jan 26, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 26 at 12:29AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 12:52 AM -> Jan 26, 11:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 12:52AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 12:52 AM -> Jan 26, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 12:52AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 1:13 AM -> Jan 26, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 12:13AM CST until January 27 at 10:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 1:31 AM -> Jan 26, 9:45 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 1:31AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 1:31 AM -> Jan 26, 9:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 1:31AM EST until January 26 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 1:33 AM -> Jan 26, 4:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 1:33AM EST until January 26 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 1:33 AM -> Jan 26, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 1:33AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 26, 1:35 AM -> Jan 26, 12:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 26 at 1:35AM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 26, 1:35 AM -> Jan 26, 12:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 26 at 1:35AM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 2:24 AM -> Jan 26, 2:30 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 2:24AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 2:24 AM -> Jan 26, 2:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 2:24AM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 2:24 AM -> Jan 26, 2:30 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 2:24AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 2:24 AM -> Jan 26, 2:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 2:24AM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 2:24 AM -> Jan 26, 2:30 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 2:24AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 2:24 AM -> Jan 26, 2:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 2:24AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 2:24 AM -> Jan 26, 2:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 2:24AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 2:24 AM -> Jan 26, 2:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 2:24AM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 4:57 AM -> Jan 26, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 4:57AM EST until January 27 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 4:57 AM -> Jan 26, 5:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 4:57AM EST until January 26 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 26, 5:00 AM -> Jan 26, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 26 at 5:00AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 26, 5:14 AM -> Jan 26, 12:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 26 at 5:14AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 26, 5:47 AM -> Jan 26, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 26 at 5:47AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Advisory

Jan 26, 7:15 AM -> Jan 26, 10:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued January 26 at 7:15AM EST until January 26 at 10:15AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jan 26, 7:20 AM -> Jan 26, 7:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued January 26 at 7:20AM EST until January 27 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 8:13 AM -> Jan 26, 4:15 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 7:13AM CST until January 27 at 10:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 26, 9:05 AM -> Jan 26, 2:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 26 at 9:05AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Advisory

Jan 26, 9:13 AM -> Jan 26, 8:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued January 26 at 9:13AM EST until January 27 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 10:59 AM -> Jan 26, 7:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 10:59AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 10:59 AM -> Jan 26, 7:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 10:59AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Jan 26, 11:00 AM -> Jan 26, 4:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 26 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 11:42 AM -> Jan 26, 7:45 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 11:42AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 11:42 AM -> Jan 26, 7:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 11:42AM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 11:42 AM -> Jan 26, 7:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 11:42AM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 11:42 AM -> Jan 26, 7:45 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 11:42AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 11:42 AM -> Jan 26, 7:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 11:42AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 11:42 AM -> Jan 26, 7:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 11:42AM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 12:19 PM -> Jan 26, 8:30 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 12:19PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 12:19 PM -> Jan 26, 8:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 12:19PM EST until January 26 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 26, 12:32 PM -> Jan 26, 6:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 26 at 12:32PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jan 26, 12:43 PM -> Jan 27, 12:00 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued January 26 at 12:43PM EST until January 28 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 26, 1:48 PM -> Jan 26, 6:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 26 at 1:48PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 3:06 PM -> Jan 26, 7:15 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 3:06PM EST until January 27 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 3:06 PM -> Jan 26, 7:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 3:06PM EST until January 26 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 3:44 PM -> Jan 26, 11:45 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 2:44PM CST until January 27 at 10:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jan 26, 4:16 PM -> Jan 27, 6:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued January 26 at 4:16PM EST until January 27 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 5:22 PM -> Jan 27, 1:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 5:22PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 5:22 PM -> Jan 27, 1:30 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 5:22PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 5:58 PM -> Jan 27, 4:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 5:58PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 5:58 PM -> Jan 27, 6:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 5:58PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 26, 5:58 PM -> Jan 27, 6:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 26 at 5:58PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 26, 5:58 PM -> Jan 27, 6:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 26 at 5:58PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
60%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Monday, January 26, 2026.

Temperature
±6.3°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±0.59"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±8.3mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
14° / 2°
Actual
32° / 4°
Error: -18°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 25 mph
Actual
7 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
12° / 1°
Actual
15° / 0°
Error: -3°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 25 mph
Actual
9 / 23 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
14° / 2°
Actual
17° / 3°
Error: -3°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 25 mph
Actual
3 / 21 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
13° / 0°
Actual
15° / 6°
Error: -2°F high, -6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 26 mph
Actual
0 / 0 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
13° / 2°
Actual
32° / 7°
Error: -19°F high, -5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 22 mph
Actual
9 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
12° / 1°
Actual
16° / 4°
Error: -4°F high, -3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 25 mph
Actual
5 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
16° / 5°
Actual
20° / 8°
Error: -4°F high, -3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
0.18"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 21 mph
Actual
0 / 17 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
12° / 2°
Actual
15° / 7°
Error: -3°F high, -5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.1"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 23 mph
Actual
6 / 26 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
14° / 4°
Actual
17° / 8°
Error: -3°F high, -4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 24 mph
Actual
0 / 0 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
16° / 4°
Actual
18° / 8°
Error: -2°F high, -4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.5"
Actual
0"
±0.5" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 22 mph
Actual
0 / 0 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
19° / 8°
Actual
20° / 7°
Error: -1°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.6"
Actual
0.15"
±0.44999999999999996" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 22 mph
Actual
0 / 0 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
18° / 8°
Actual
32° / 9°
Error: -14°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
1"
Actual
6.84"
±5.84" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 21 mph
Actual
2 / 24 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Dangerous Arctic Cold Grips Kentucky with Mountain Snow

A powerful Arctic air mass is firmly entrenched across the Commonwealth, bringing the coldest temperatures of the season and life-threatening wind chills. While western Kentucky stays dry under clearing skies, a passing shortwave trough will interact with moisture trapped in the eastern mountains to produce light, powdery snow showers through the afternoon.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in the extreme cold and sub-zero wind chills; lower confidence in snow accumulation due to the struggle between mid-level saturation and low-level dry air.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

IMPACTFUL
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Dangerous Cold with Sub-Zero Wind Chills
Cloudy
14°/ 2°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Frigid and Clear with Single Digit Wind Chills
Sunny
12°/ 1°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Biting Cold with Morning Clouds
Cloudy
14°/ 2°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Bitterly Cold Morning in Bowling Green
Cloudy
13°/ 0°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Frigid and Gray for the Metro
Sunny
13°/ 2°

Lincoln Trail

IMPACTFUL
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Extreme Wind Chills on the Escarpment
Sunny
12°/ 1°

Lake Cumberland

IMPACTFUL
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Morning Flurries; Light Dusting Possible
Snow
16°/ 5°

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Covington, Florence, Independence
Deep Freeze with Early Flurries
Snow
12°/ 2°

Inner Bluegrass

IMPACTFUL
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Breezy and Bitter with a Coating of Snow
Snow
14°/ 4°

Bluegrass Foothills

IMPACTFUL
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Light Snow and Biting Cold
Snow
16°/ 4°

Northeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Coating of Snow and Frigid Vales
Snow
19°/ 8°

Southeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Accumulating Mountain Snow
Snow
18°/ 8°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the moisture profile deepens slightly and snow-to-liquid ratios reach 20:1, the Southeast Coalfields could see localized totals of 2-3 inches of dry powder, while central Kentucky sees a widespread coating.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the dry sub-cloud layer (dewpoint depressions >15F) seen in the NAM verifies, most precipitation will fall as virga or light flurries, leaving the state with little to no measurable accumulation.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Virga Verdict

The NAM suggests a bone-dry lower atmosphere that will evaporate most precipitation before it hits the ground, while the GFS and GEM suggest enough moisture will overcome the dry air to produce measurable snow.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
GEM
Why GEM Wins

GEM and GFS are better at resolving the moisture-squeezing effect of the shortwave in Arctic air; high snow-to-liquid ratios mean even minimal liquid will result in measurable surface accumulation.

Affected Regions
LAKE CUMBERLANDBLUEGRASS FOOTHILLSNORTHEAST KYSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

The Negative Low Struggle

The GFS is aggressively forecasting sub-zero surface temperatures across the western half of the state, while the NAM and Euro keep lows in the single digits above zero.

GFS
VS
NAM
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

The 1040mb high is a classic signal for extreme cold, but lingering cloud cover in the central/east will likely prevent the full radiational cooling needed for the deepest GFS negatives.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILESOUTHWEST PENNYRILEBARREN RIVER

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A deep, uniform Arctic air mass is in place with a completely sub-freezing column from the surface to the tropopause. Soundings show an isothermal layer in the lowest 1km with temperatures averaging -12C to -16C.

Thermal Boundary

The Arctic boundary is pushed well south of the Gulf Coast; no significant thermal boundaries remain within the Ohio Valley.

Diurnal Trend

Non-diurnal trends will be prevalent in the west as cold air advection offsets solar heating. Central and eastern areas will see a flat diurnal curve with minimal afternoon recovery.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

The primary Arctic front passed 24 hours ago; secondary cold air advection surges are noted in 925mb wind shifts through 12Z.

Jet Stream Support

Kentucky is in the right exit region of a 110-130kt polar jet streak, providing broad upper-level convergence and subsidence across the northwest.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough is pivoting through the Tennessee Valley, providing the necessary lift for flurries in the southern and eastern regions.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is drying from the top down, but a saturated layer remains within the Dendritic Growth Zone (-12C to -18C) between 850mb and 700mb.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be stratiform and composed of light, fine 'dry' snow or granular flurries with very high snow-to-liquid ratios.

Flooding Context

No hydrologic concerns; ground is frozen and precipitation is negligible.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

No melting layers or warm noses exist; the entire profile is supportive of 100% snow crystal growth.

Crystal Habit

The saturation layer is perfectly positioned within the DGZ, supporting high-ratio, branched crystals that will accumulate efficiently.

Road Impact

Pavement temperatures are well below freezing, ensuring any snow that falls will stick instantly and create slick spots.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

First Quarter

55% Illumination
Moonrise
12:07 PM
Moonset
1:54 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
8:02 AM
Sunset
6:13 PM
Civil Dawn
7:35 AM
Civil Dusk
6:41 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:58 AM
Sunset
6:05 PM
Civil Dawn
7:30 AM
Civil Dusk
6:34 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:57 AM
Sunset
6:09 PM
Civil Dawn
7:30 AM
Civil Dusk
6:37 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:54 AM
Sunset
6:05 PM
Civil Dawn
7:26 AM
Civil Dusk
6:32 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:53 AM
Sunset
5:59 PM
Civil Dawn
7:25 AM
Civil Dusk
6:27 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:53 AM
Sunset
6:01 PM
Civil Dawn
7:25 AM
Civil Dusk
6:29 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:46 AM
Sunset
5:57 PM
Civil Dawn
7:19 AM
Civil Dusk
6:25 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:50 AM
Sunset
5:52 PM
Civil Dawn
7:22 AM
Civil Dusk
6:21 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:48 AM
Sunset
5:54 PM
Civil Dawn
7:20 AM
Civil Dusk
6:23 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:47 AM
Sunset
5:54 PM
Civil Dawn
7:18 AM
Civil Dusk
6:22 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:42 AM
Sunset
5:46 PM
Civil Dawn
7:13 AM
Civil Dusk
6:14 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:41 AM
Sunset
5:51 PM
Civil Dawn
7:13 AM
Civil Dusk
6:19 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.