kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Fri, Jan 23
Sun, Jan 25
Forecast For

Saturday, January 24

Updated Jan 24, 8:02 AM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 23, 1:18 PM -> Jan 24, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 23 at 1:18PM EST until January 24 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 1:29 PM -> Jan 24, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 1:29PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 1:32 PM -> Jan 23, 9:45 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 1:32PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 1:32 PM -> Jan 23, 9:45 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 1:32PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 23, 2:48 PM -> Jan 24, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 23 at 1:48PM CST until January 24 at 1:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 3:00 PM -> Jan 24, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 2:00PM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 3:04 PM -> Jan 24, 5:15 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 3:04PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 3:46 PM -> Jan 24, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 3:46PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 23, 3:54 PM -> Jan 24, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 23 at 3:54PM EST until January 24 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 23, 4:48 PM -> Jan 24, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 23 at 4:48PM EST until January 24 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 5:00 PM -> Jan 24, 1:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 5:00PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 8:22 PM -> Jan 24, 4:30 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 8:22PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 8:22 PM -> Jan 24, 4:30 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 8:22PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 10:03 PM -> Jan 24, 6:15 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 10:03PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 1:28 AM -> Jan 24, 9:30 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 1:28AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 24, 2:12 AM -> Jan 24, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 24 at 2:12AM EST until January 24 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 2:16 AM -> Jan 24, 3:15 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 2:16AM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 2:16 AM -> Jan 24, 3:15 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 2:16AM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 3:31 AM -> Jan 24, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 3:31AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 3:31 AM -> Jan 24, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 3:31AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 3:31 AM -> Jan 24, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 3:31AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 24, 3:36 AM -> Jan 24, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 24 at 3:36AM EST until January 24 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 4:03 AM -> Jan 24, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 3:03AM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 24, 4:04 AM -> Jan 24, 2:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 24 at 3:04AM CST until January 24 at 1:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 24, 4:15 AM -> Jan 24, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 24 at 4:15AM EST until January 24 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 4:28 AM -> Jan 24, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 4:28AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 9:35 AM -> Jan 24, 5:45 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 9:35AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 9:37 AM -> Jan 24, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 9:37AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Cold Warning

Jan 24, 11:12 AM -> Jan 25, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Cold Warning issued January 24 at 10:12AM CST until January 27 at 10:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 24, 11:12 AM -> Jan 25, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 24 at 10:12AM CST until January 26 at 12:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 12:11 PM -> Jan 25, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 12:11PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 12:11 PM -> Jan 25, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 12:11PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 12:11 PM -> Jan 25, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 12:11PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 24, 1:27 PM -> Jan 25, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 24 at 1:27PM EST until January 27 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 24, 1:32 PM -> Jan 24, 9:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 24 at 1:32PM EST until January 26 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 24, 1:32 PM -> Jan 24, 9:45 PM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 24 at 1:32PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 1:49 PM -> Jan 24, 10:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 1:49PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 1:49 PM -> Jan 24, 10:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 1:49PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 24, 2:04 PM -> Jan 25, 6:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 24 at 2:04PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 24, 2:04 PM -> Jan 25, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 24 at 2:04PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Cold Watch

Jan 24, 2:04 PM -> Jan 25, 6:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Extreme Cold Watch issued January 24 at 2:04PM EST until January 27 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 3:06 PM -> Jan 25, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 3:06PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 3:18 PM -> Jan 25, 6:15 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 2:18PM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 24, 5:08 PM -> Jan 25, 1:15 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 24 at 5:08PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Confidence
35%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Saturday, January 24, 2026.

Temperature
±3.7°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±6.17"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±2.7mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
17° / 11°
Actual
32° / 8°
Error: -15°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
4.5"
Actual
6.93"
±2.4299999999999997" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 27 mph
Actual
11 / 24 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
17° / 11°
Actual
14° / 8°
Error: 3°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
4.1"
Actual
8.88"
±4.780000000000001" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 21 mph
Actual
10 / 24 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
18° / 14°
Actual
16° / 9°
Error: 2°F high, 5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
7.2"
Actual
19.7"
±12.5" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 24 mph
Actual
11 / 28 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
22° / 16°
Actual
23° / 13°
Error: -1°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
5.5"
Actual
9.34"
±3.84" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 25 mph
Actual
9 / 21 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
17° / 9°
Actual
13° / 7°
Error: 4°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
3.2"
Actual
0"
±3.2" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 21 mph
Actual
10 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
18° / 11°
Actual
19° / 9°
Error: -1°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
4.5"
Actual
10.26"
±5.76" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 24 mph
Actual
9 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
23° / 15°
Actual
27° / 12°
Error: -4°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
4.5"
Actual
17.25"
±12.75" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 19 mph
Actual
8 / 21 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
15° / 5°
Actual
14° / 6°
Error: 1°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
2.1"
Actual
0"
±2.1" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 18 mph
Actual
7 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
17° / 9°
Actual
18° / 8°
Error: -1°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
3.1"
Actual
2.07"
±1.0300000000000002" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 23 mph
Actual
11 / 23 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
19° / 12°
Actual
21° / 11°
Error: -2°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
3.9"
Actual
0"
±3.9" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 18 mph
Actual
8 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
19° / 9°
Actual
20° / 8°
Error: -1°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
1.6"
Actual
0"
±1.6" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 16 mph
Actual
7 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
24° / 15°
Actual
33° / 11°
Error: -9°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
2.6"
Actual
22.7"
±20.099999999999998" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 14 mph
Actual
5 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Statewide Arctic Blast: Hazardous Powder Snow and Sleet Mix

A potent winter storm will sweep through Kentucky this Saturday, delivering a widespread accumulation of dry, powdery snow. Bitterly cold arctic air already in place will maximize snow ratios, making for efficient accumulation. Southern and South-Central Kentucky will see a transition to sleet pellets as a warm layer develops aloft.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

Confidence is penalized by the distance from the event (Day 4), the high volatility of winter precipitation types, and significant disagreement between the ECMWF totals and other guidance.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

IMPACTFUL
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Morning Snow and Persistent Powder
Snow
17°/ 11°

Northwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Steady Afternoon Accumulation
Snow
17°/ 11°

Southwest Pennyrile

SEVERE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Significant Snowfall Expected
Heavy_Snow
18°/ 14°

Barren River

IMPACTFUL
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Snow and Sleet Combination
Wintry_Mix
22°/ 16°

Louisville Metro

IMPACTFUL
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Evening Powder Accumulation
Snow
17°/ 9°

Lincoln Trail

IMPACTFUL
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Snowy Trails and Slick Roads
Snow
18°/ 11°

Lake Cumberland

IMPACTFUL
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Sleet and Snow Mix Overnight
Wintry_Mix
23°/ 15°

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Covington, Florence, Independence
Bitter Cold and Light Snow
Snow
15°/ 5°

Inner Bluegrass

IMPACTFUL
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Blowing Snow and Icy Surfaces
Snow
17°/ 9°

Bluegrass Foothills

IMPACTFUL
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Evening Powder Accumulation
Snow
19°/ 12°

Northeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Bitter Cold with Light Snow
Snow
19°/ 9°

Southeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Mountain Snow and Sleet Mix
Wintry_Mix
24°/ 15°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The ECMWF scenario verifies, where moisture advection is significantly more robust, leading to 8-11 inches of fluffy powder across the southern half of the state.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The NAM/GEM dry slot scenario wins, or the initial dry arctic air (virga) takes longer to saturate, resulting in a widespread 1-2 inch dusting with minimal impact in the north.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The 850mb Warm Nose Conflict

The NAM insists on a warm layer (+1C to +2C) at 850mb across southern Kentucky, which would transition snow to sleet. Global models (GFS/ECMWF/GEM) maintain a completely sub-freezing column.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
ECMWF
Why NAM Wins

The NAM mesoscale resolution typically handles shallow thermal inversions and 'warm noses' better than global models within a 48-hour window.

Affected Regions
BARREN RIVERLAKE CUMBERLANDSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

The Snowfall Magnitude Skew

ECMWF is a massive outlier, forecasting double the snowfall of the GFS and NAM, with totals exceeding 10 inches in areas where others show 4-5 inches.

ECMWF
VS
GFS
VS
NAM
Why BLEND Wins

Per protocol, the ECMWF outlier (>2x GFS) is treated as a high-end scenario rather than the baseline. A blend of GFS, GEM, and NAM provides a more physically consistent result.

Affected Regions
PURCHASESOUTHWEST PENNYRILEBARREN RIVERLINCOLN TRAIL

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

An arctic profile is entrenched with 1000-500mb layers well below freezing, though an inversion at 850mb introduces a warm nose in the south.

Thermal Boundary

The 850mb freezing line is progged to stall near the TN/KY border, oscillating into the Southern Pennyrile and Lake Cumberland regions.

Diurnal Trend

Non-diurnal trends are expected; temperatures will likely fall or remain steady during the day as cold air advection offsets minimal solar gain.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A secondary arctic front will reinforce the cold during the afternoon, marked by a shift to gusty northerly winds.

Jet Stream Support

The state is positioned in the right-entrance region of a 110kt upper-level jet, providing synoptic lift.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough with a vorticity peak is pivoting through the Commonwealth between 18Z and 03Z.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Initial dry air at the surface will cause virga; however, the column will saturate by mid-afternoon for most regions.

Precipitation Character

Stratiform snow with high crystal efficiency, though convective bursts are possible in the southwest.

Flooding Context

No flooding risk exists as the ground is frozen and all precipitation is frozen or refreezing.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

A warm nose at 850mb (1.5km) will cause partial melting in the southern tier, followed by a 1km refreeze layer supporting sleet.

Crystal Habit

Saturation in the DGZ (-12C to -18C) will favor large, unrimmed stellar dendrites with high accumulation potential.

Road Impact

Sub-20F pavement temperatures mean snow and sleet will flash-freeze and bond immediately to roadways.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

32% Illumination
Moonrise
11:03 AM
Moonset
11:28 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
8:04 AM
Sunset
6:11 PM
Civil Dawn
7:36 AM
Civil Dusk
6:39 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:59 AM
Sunset
6:03 PM
Civil Dawn
7:31 AM
Civil Dusk
6:31 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:59 AM
Sunset
6:07 PM
Civil Dawn
7:31 AM
Civil Dusk
6:35 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:55 AM
Sunset
6:03 PM
Civil Dawn
7:27 AM
Civil Dusk
6:30 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:55 AM
Sunset
5:57 PM
Civil Dawn
7:26 AM
Civil Dusk
6:25 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:54 AM
Sunset
5:58 PM
Civil Dawn
7:26 AM
Civil Dusk
6:27 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:48 AM
Sunset
5:55 PM
Civil Dawn
7:20 AM
Civil Dusk
6:23 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:52 AM
Sunset
5:50 PM
Civil Dawn
7:23 AM
Civil Dusk
6:19 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:49 AM
Sunset
5:52 PM
Civil Dawn
7:21 AM
Civil Dusk
6:20 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:48 AM
Sunset
5:52 PM
Civil Dawn
7:20 AM
Civil Dusk
6:20 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:43 AM
Sunset
5:44 PM
Civil Dawn
7:14 AM
Civil Dusk
6:12 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:42 AM
Sunset
5:49 PM
Civil Dawn
7:14 AM
Civil Dusk
6:17 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.