kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Thu, Jan 22
Sat, Jan 24
Forecast For

Friday, January 23

Updated Jan 22, 5:44 PM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 22, 12:58 PM -> Jan 22, 11:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 22 at 11:58AM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 22, 1:00 PM -> Jan 22, 11:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 22 at 12:00PM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 22, 1:28 PM -> Jan 23, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 22 at 1:28PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 22, 1:29 PM -> Jan 22, 11:30 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 22 at 12:29PM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Watch

Jan 22, 1:34 PM -> Jan 23, 2:45 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Watch issued January 22 at 1:34PM EST until January 26 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 22, 2:08 PM -> Jan 23, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 22 at 2:08PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Watch

Jan 22, 2:39 PM -> Jan 22, 10:45 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Watch issued January 22 at 2:39PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 22, 3:36 PM -> Jan 23, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 22 at 3:36PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Storm Watch

Jan 22, 10:18 PM -> Jan 23, 6:30 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Watch issued January 22 at 10:18PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 22, 10:40 PM -> Jan 23, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 22 at 9:40PM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 22, 10:51 PM -> Jan 23, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 22 at 9:51PM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 1:08 AM -> Jan 23, 9:15 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 1:08AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 1:27 AM -> Jan 23, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 1:27AM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 23, 1:34 AM -> Jan 23, 2:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 23 at 1:34AM EST until January 24 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 23, 2:13 AM -> Jan 23, 4:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 23 at 1:13AM CST until January 24 at 1:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 2:18 AM -> Jan 23, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 1:18AM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 23, 3:45 AM -> Jan 23, 5:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 23 at 3:45AM EST until January 24 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 23, 4:17 AM -> Jan 23, 5:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 23 at 4:17AM EST until January 24 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 4:18 AM -> Jan 23, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 4:18AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 4:26 AM -> Jan 23, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 4:26AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 9:07 AM -> Jan 23, 5:15 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 9:07AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 23, 1:18 PM -> Jan 24, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 23 at 1:18PM EST until January 24 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 1:29 PM -> Jan 24, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 1:29PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 1:32 PM -> Jan 23, 9:45 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 1:32PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 1:32 PM -> Jan 23, 9:45 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 1:32PM EST until January 26 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 23, 2:48 PM -> Jan 24, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 23 at 1:48PM CST until January 24 at 1:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 3:00 PM -> Jan 24, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 2:00PM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 3:04 PM -> Jan 24, 5:15 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 3:04PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 3:46 PM -> Jan 24, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 3:46PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 23, 3:54 PM -> Jan 24, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 23 at 3:54PM EST until January 24 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 23, 4:48 PM -> Jan 24, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 23 at 4:48PM EST until January 24 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Warning

Jan 23, 5:00 PM -> Jan 24, 1:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 5:00PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Confidence
90%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Friday, January 23, 2026.

Temperature
±5.3°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±0.00"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±6.5mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
27° / 11°
Actual
38° / 16°
Error: -11°F high, -5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
16 / 28 mph
Actual
9 / 30 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
26° / 12°
Actual
34° / 12°
Error: -8°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
16 / 25 mph
Actual
8 / 28 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
30° / 14°
Actual
34° / 15°
Error: -4°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
17 / 27 mph
Actual
9 / 30 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
33° / 18°
Actual
36° / 20°
Error: -3°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 23 mph
Actual
6 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
26° / 11°
Actual
33° / 12°
Error: -7°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 21 mph
Actual
7 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
27° / 12°
Actual
31° / 15°
Error: -4°F high, -3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 21 mph
Actual
5 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
35° / 20°
Actual
38° / 22°
Error: -3°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 20 mph
Actual
4 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
23° / 6°
Actual
31° / 11°
Error: -8°F high, -5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 19 mph
Actual
6 / 21 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
28° / 12°
Actual
33° / 17°
Error: -5°F high, -5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 21 mph
Actual
7 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
31° / 15°
Actual
34° / 21°
Error: -3°F high, -6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 19 mph
Actual
4 / 17 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
32° / 14°
Actual
31° / 16°
Error: 1°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 18 mph
Actual
3 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
36° / 20°
Actual
42° / 20°
Error: -6°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 15 mph
Actual
2 / 17 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Dangerous Arctic Cold and Biting Winds Grip Kentucky

A powerful arctic air mass is plunging across the Commonwealth today. Expect bone-chilling temperatures and sharp northwest winds that will drive wind chills into the single digits and below zero. While skies will be mostly clear for the majority of the state, the primary story is the intense cold air advection that will cause temperatures to drop or remain nearly flat throughout the afternoon.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

Models are in nearly perfect agreement on the synoptic setup and the total absence of precipitation. The only minor uncertainty is the exact floor of the overnight low temperatures based on cloud cover persistence.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Bracing for Impactful Cold
Cloudy
27°/ 11°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Sub-Freezing and Sunny
Sunny
26°/ 12°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Bright Sun, Bitter Winds
Sunny
30°/ 14°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Sunlight and Single Digits
Sunny
33°/ 18°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Frigid Conditions in the Metro
Sunny
26°/ 11°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Escarpment Deep Freeze
Sunny
27°/ 12°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Cumberland Plateau Chill
Sunny
35°/ 20°

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Covington, Florence, Independence
Deep Arctic Freeze
Cloudy
23°/ 6°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Lexington's Frigid Sunshine
Sunny
28°/ 12°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Cold Winds through the Knobs
Sunny
31°/ 15°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Sharp Valley Freeze
Sunny
32°/ 14°

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Clouds Clearing as Cold Arrives
Cloudy
36°/ 20°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The 'Coldest' scenario occurs if the arctic high centers more quickly and skies remain perfectly clear overnight, allowing the GEM's aggressive cooling to verify. This would result in morning lows between -2F and 5F across the northern half of Kentucky with wind chills near -15F.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The 'Muted' scenario occurs if mid-level stratocumulus clouds linger longer than expected in Central and Eastern Kentucky, as suggested by the NAM. This cloud cover would act as a thermal blanket, keeping overnight lows in the mid-to-upper teens rather than the single digits.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Magnitude of the Arctic Plunge

A significant disagreement exists regarding how low surface temperatures will drop. The GEM and Euro are notably colder, pushing single-digit lows deep into Central Kentucky, while the GFS remains more conservative with lows in the mid-teens.

GEM
VS
EURO
VS
GFS
Why GEM Wins

GEM historically captures the depth of shallow arctic air masses more effectively than the GFS, which tends to over-mix the boundary layer and keep surface temps too warm in these regimes.

Affected Regions
NORTHERN KYLOUISVILLE METROBLUEGRASS CORENORTHEAST KY

Post-Frontal Cloud Retention

The NAM and GEM suggest lingering mid-level moisture will keep skies 'Partly to Mostly Cloudy' in the Southeast, while the GFS and Euro forecast 'Crystal Clear' conditions.

NAM
VS
GEM
VS
GFS
Why NAM Wins

NAM's superior vertical resolution typically detects shallow moisture trapped beneath a subsidence inversion better than global models, which often scour out clouds too aggressively.

Affected Regions
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDSLAKE CUMBERLANDBLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

An arctic-sourced air mass is firmly in place, characterized by a deep isothermal layer in the lower troposphere and a standard adiabatic lapse rate above 800mb.

Thermal Boundary

The arctic frontal boundary is positioned well south of the Tennessee border, having cleared the state over the last 12-18 hours.

Diurnal Trend

Strongly non-diurnal trends are expected. Western and Northern regions will see high temperatures occurring in the morning, with a steady decline or flatline through the afternoon as the core of the arctic air arrives.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

Confirmed secondary arctic front passed between 06z and 12z, marked by a sharp dewpoint drop into the single digits and sustained NW winds of 12-18 mph.

Jet Stream Support

The state is in the right exit region of the upper-level jet, which is providing strong synoptic-scale subsidence and suppressing any vertical growth.

Energy Status

Weak mid-level vorticity lobes are traversing the state, but without moisture, they are failing to produce anything more than transient mid-level cloudiness.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Deeply dry column. Surface dewpoint depressions range from 20-30 degrees Fahrenheit, precluding any precipitation risk.

Precipitation Character

None. The atmosphere is too moisture-starved for even light flurries/virga to be a significant concern.

Flooding Context

No hydrologic risk. Surface soils are undergoing a rapid freeze-thaw transition into a hard freeze.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

850mb temperatures are between -12C and -16C statewide, ensuring that if moisture were present, it would be entirely frozen. Surface is well below freezing for the northern 2/3 of the state.

Crystal Habit

Not applicable due to lack of precipitation.

Road Impact

Dry roads. However, residual moisture from previous days may flash freeze into black ice on untreated surfaces.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

22% Illumination
Moonrise
10:36 AM
Moonset
10:20 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
8:04 AM
Sunset
6:10 PM
Civil Dawn
7:36 AM
Civil Dusk
6:38 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:00 AM
Sunset
6:02 PM
Civil Dawn
7:31 AM
Civil Dusk
6:30 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:59 AM
Sunset
6:06 PM
Civil Dawn
7:31 AM
Civil Dusk
6:34 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:55 AM
Sunset
6:01 PM
Civil Dawn
7:28 AM
Civil Dusk
6:29 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:55 AM
Sunset
5:56 PM
Civil Dawn
7:27 AM
Civil Dusk
6:24 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:55 AM
Sunset
5:57 PM
Civil Dawn
7:26 AM
Civil Dusk
6:25 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:48 AM
Sunset
5:54 PM
Civil Dawn
7:20 AM
Civil Dusk
6:22 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:52 AM
Sunset
5:49 PM
Civil Dawn
7:24 AM
Civil Dusk
6:17 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:50 AM
Sunset
5:51 PM
Civil Dawn
7:22 AM
Civil Dusk
6:19 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:48 AM
Sunset
5:51 PM
Civil Dawn
7:20 AM
Civil Dusk
6:19 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:43 AM
Sunset
5:43 PM
Civil Dawn
7:15 AM
Civil Dusk
6:11 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:43 AM
Sunset
5:48 PM
Civil Dawn
7:15 AM
Civil Dusk
6:16 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.