Thursday, January 22
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 10:38AM CST until January 25 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 7 and 11 inches possible.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN From late Friday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Travel could be very difficult.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 11:38AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT A winter storm is expected to bring moderate to major impacts to central Kentucky and southern Indiana this weekend. Periods of moderate to heavy snow are forecast this weekend with the possibility of a wintry mix of snow and sleet across southern Kentucky.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN From early Saturday morning through Monday morning.
IMPACTS Plan for considerable disruptions to daily life, Be prepared for dangerous travel conditions and ready to avoid travel if possible.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 12:09PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT A winter storm is expected to bring moderate to major impacts to eastern Kentucky this weekend. Periods of moderate to heavy snow are forecast this weekend with the possibility of a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain, especially along and south of the KY-80/Hal Rogers Parkway.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From Saturday morning through Monday morning.
IMPACTS Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 12:28PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12 inches possible. Locally higher amounts are possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From Saturday morning through Monday morning.
IMPACTS Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 12:30PM EST until January 26 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Heavy snow with total accumulations between 4 and 6 inches is possible.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and south central and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From Saturday morning through late Sunday night.
IMPACTS Travel could be very difficult.
Persons should consider altering their travel plans. If you do plan to travel in hazardous winter conditions, consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 3:37PM CST until January 25 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Heavy mixed precipitation possible in southwest Kentucky and heavy snow possible elsewhere. Total snow accumulations between 7 and 13 inches and ice accumulations around a light glaze possible in southwest Kentucky.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN From late Friday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Travel could be very difficult to impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Prolonged cold is also expected between Friday and Monday. Wind chills Friday night could be as low as -10 degrees across the north and -5 across the south. Sunday night wind chills will range from -7 degrees to -12 degrees.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 8:19PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Heavy snow possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From Saturday morning through Monday morning.
IMPACTS Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 8:43PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT A winter storm is expected to bring significant amounts of snow, sleet, and freezing rain this weekend. Periods of moderate to heavy snow are expected Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon across north central Kentucky and southern Indiana, while a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is possible across south central Kentucky.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN From early Saturday morning through Monday morning.
IMPACTS Plan for considerable disruptions to daily life, including dangerous travel conditions, prolonged power outages, and disruptions to other utilities and services.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 9:34PM CST until January 25 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Heavy mixed precipitation is possible in southern portions of west Kentucky, with heavy snow possible across the rest of west Kentucky, southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. Total snow accumulations between 7 and 13 inches, and ice accumulations around a light glaze possible.
WHERE All of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN From late Friday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Travel could be very difficult to impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Prolonged cold is also expected between Friday and Monday. Wind chills Friday night could be as low as -10 degrees across the north and -5 across the south. Sunday night wind chills will range from -7 degrees to -12 degrees.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued January 21 at 10:28PM CST until January 22 at 10:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN Until 10 AM CST Thursday.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures dropping below freezing over much of the area by morning may lead to some icing of roadways, especially bridges.
If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 22 at 1:42AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT A winter storm is expected to bring moderate to major impacts to the region this weekend. Periods of moderate to heavy snow are forecast this weekend with the possibility of a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain, especially along and just west of the higher terrain.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From Saturday morning through Monday morning.
IMPACTS Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 22 at 2:05AM EST until January 26 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 11 inches possible.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and south central and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night.
IMPACTS Travel could be very difficult.
Persons should consider altering their travel plans. If you do plan to travel in hazardous winter conditions, consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 22 at 1:22AM CST until January 25 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Heavy mixed precipitation is possible in southern portions of west Kentucky, with heavy snow possible across the rest of west Kentucky, southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. Total snow accumulations between 7 and 13 inches, and ice accumulations around a light glaze possible.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN From late Friday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Prolonged cold is also expected between Friday and Monday. Wind chills Friday night could be as low as -10 degrees across the north and -5 across the south. Sunday night wind chills will range from -7 degrees to -12 degrees.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 22 at 3:10AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT A winter storm is expected to bring moderate to major impacts to eastern Kentucky this weekend. Periods of moderate to heavy snow are forecast this weekend with the possibility of a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain, especially along and south of the KY-80/Hal Rogers Parkway.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From Saturday morning through Monday morning.
IMPACTS Power outages and tree damage will be possible due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the Monday morning commute.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this developing situation. Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 22 at 4:22AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 9 and 14 inches and ice accumulations around two tenths of an inch possible.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and central Kentucky.
WHEN From late Friday night through Monday morning.
IMPACTS Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued January 22 at 3:28AM CST until January 22 at 10:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.
WHERE Calloway and Graves Counties.
WHEN Until 10 AM CST this morning.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures dropping below freezing over much of the area by morning may lead to some icing of roadways, especially bridges.
If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued January 22 at 3:28AM CST until January 22 at 10:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN Until 10 AM CST this morning.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures dropping below freezing over much of the area by morning may lead to some icing of roadways, especially bridges.
If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued January 22 at 4:19AM CST until January 22 at 10:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.
WHERE In Kentucky, Calloway, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, and Hickman Counties. In Missouri, Mississippi and New Madrid Counties.
WHEN Until 10 AM CST this morning.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.
If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 22 at 5:57AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Road temperatures below freezing are combining with some lingering surface moisture to produce localized black ice this morning. If traveling this morning, use extra caution and be aware of the potential for spotty slick spots on untreated roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 22 at 7:50AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
The combination of lingering wet spots from yesterday, and temperatures falling below freezing is allowing for patchy black ice this morning. Use caution if traveling this morning, especially near sheltered and low lying areas. Temperatures will warm above freezing later this morning.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 22 at 8:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Wet patches on area roads and temperatures near freezing is leading to a potential for slick spots this morning, especially in shaded locations. Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 22 at 8:03AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
The combination of lingering wet spots from yesterday, freezing fog this morning, and temperatures falling below freezing is allowing for patchy black ice this morning. Use caution if traveling this morning, especially near sheltered and low lying areas. Temperatures will warm above freezing later this morning.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 22 at 8:26AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT A winter storm is expected to bring moderate to major impacts to the region this weekend. Periods of moderate to heavy snow, as well as sleet and freezing rain are forecast this weekend.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From Saturday morning through Monday morning.
IMPACTS Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warning issued January 22 at 11:58AM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
...MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION... .Snow is expected to begin overnight Saturday night, periods of sleet will mix in over western Kentucky and far southeast Missouri. The majority of the event is expected to persist at heavy snow through Sunday afternoon.
WHAT Heavy snow. A band of 8 to 13 inch accumulations across parts of southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana and western Kentucky. 6 to 10 inches in other locations across southern Illinois and far southwest Kentucky. Periods of heavy sleet in far southeast Missouri and western Kentucky with freezing rain mixed in. Some sleet accumulation and up to a light glaze of freezing rain.
WHERE All southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN From midnight CST /1 AM EST/ Friday Night to 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ Sunday.
IMPACTS Travel could be very difficult and may become impossible at times. Extreme cold will exacerbate the danger.
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can be obtained by visiting www.weather.gov/pah/roads
Cold Weather Advisory
Cold Weather Advisory issued January 22 at 12:00PM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Very cold wind chills as low as 10 below expected.
WHERE All ofsouthern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN From 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ Friday to 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ Sunday.
IMPACTS The cold wind chills as low as 10 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures. The winter storm will exacerbate these dangers.
Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.
Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warning issued January 22 at 1:28PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Heavy snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain along and south of the Bluegrass and Western Kentucky Parkways. South of the parkways, storm total snow and sleet 4 to 10 inches with up to a third of an inch of ice accumulation. North of the parkways mainly snow, heavy at times. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 14 inches. Locazlized higher amounts possible.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN From 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday.
IMPACTS Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov
Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warning issued January 22 at 12:29PM CST until January 25 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
...MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION... .Snow is expected to begin overnight Friday night, periods of sleet will mix in over western Kentucky and far southeast Missouri. The majority of the event is expected to persist at heavy snow through Sunday afternoon.
WHAT Heavy snow. A band of 8 to 13 inch accumulations peaking roughly from around Poplar Bluff, MO to Paducah and Marion northeastward to Evansville and Owensboro. 6 to 10 inches in other locations across southern Illinois and far southwest Kentucky. Periods of heavy sleet in far southeast Missouri and western Kentucky with freezing rain mixed in. Some sleet accumulation and up to a light glaze of freezing rain.
WHERE All of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN From midnight CST /1 AM EST/ Friday Night to 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ Sunday.
IMPACTS Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult.
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can be obtained by visiting www.weather.gov/pah/roads Persons should consider delaying all travel. Motorists should use extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 22 at 1:34PM EST until January 26 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 12 inches possible.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and south central and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From Saturday morning through late Sunday night.
IMPACTS Travel could be very difficult.
Persons should consider altering their travel plans. If you do plan to travel in hazardous winter conditions, consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.
Winter Storm Watch
The Winter Storm Watch has been replaced. Please see the latest information from NWS Jackson KY on this developing situation.
The Winter Storm Watch has been replaced. Please see the latest information from NWS Jackson KY on this developing situation.
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warning issued January 22 at 2:08PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Heavy snow is expected along and north of KY State Route 80 and the Hal Rogers Parkway, with 7 to 12 inches of snow expected and up to a tenth of an inch of sleet and freezing rain. Snow amounts along and south of KY State Route 80 and the Hal Rogers Parkway will range from 3 to 7 inches with a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain, ranging from 0.1 to 0.4 tenths of an inch.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday.
IMPACTS Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch issued January 22 at 2:39PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT A winter storm is expected to bring moderate to major impacts to the region this weekend. Periods of moderate to heavy snow are forecast this weekend with the possibility of a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From Saturday morning through Monday morning.
IMPACTS Travel will likely be very difficult to impossible. Heavy snow and ice accumulations could bring down trees and power lines leading to widespread power outages.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warning issued January 22 at 3:36PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Heavy snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain along and south of the Bluegrass and Western Kentucky Parkways. South of the Parkways, storm total snow and sleet 4 to 10 inches with up to a half inch of ice accumulation. North of the parkways mainly snow, heavy at times. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 14 inches. Localized higher amounts of snow and ice are possible.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN From 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday.
IMPACTS Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Thursday, January 22, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Morning Rain Followed by Sharp Afternoon Temperature Drop
A cold front will sweep across Kentucky on Thursday morning, bringing rain to central and eastern regions before ushering in a much colder, drier air mass. Skies will clear from west to east by afternoon, but temperatures will fall through the day.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high regarding the frontal timing and the temperature drop, but very low regarding precipitation type due to the ECMWF being a massive outlier with significant snow totals while others are dry.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect morning clouds to give way to sunny skies by midday. No precipitation is expected, but temperatures will struggle to reach 40 degrees.
Northwest Pennyrile
Morning clouds will clear quickly, leading to a sunny but windy afternoon with temperatures holding in the 30s.
Southwest Pennyrile
The day will start cloudy but stay dry. Skies will clear by the afternoon, though north winds will make it feel much colder.
Barren River
No rain is expected today. Clouds will break for sunshine in the afternoon as temperatures begin to fall.
Louisville Metro
A few sprinkles are possible before dawn, followed by a gray and breezy morning. Clouds should start to break by late afternoon.
Lincoln Trail
Light rain showers will move through before sunrise. The rest of the day will be dry but very chilly with gusty winds.
Lake Cumberland
Rain will be common through mid-morning. Skies will brighten in the afternoon, but it will be windy with gusts up to 30 mph.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a very gray and windy day. While rain will stay to the south, wind chills will remain in the 20s all day.
Inner Bluegrass
Steady rain this morning will taper off by noon. A blustery afternoon follows, with winds making it feel much colder than the mid-30s.
Bluegrass Foothills
Rain showers will wrap up by late morning. Expect clearing skies and cold, gusty winds for the second half of the day.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain will move through early today, ending by noon. Skies will brighten in the afternoon, but temperatures will begin to fall.
Southeast Kentucky
Showers will continue through mid-morning. The afternoon will be drier but increasingly chilly as cold air finally reaches the deep valleys.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' scenario follows the ECMWF outlier, where moisture lingers significantly longer as 850mb temperatures crash, resulting in a 2-4 inch snowfall and a hazardous evening commute due to a flash freeze.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' scenario involves an even faster frontal passage where dry air scours out the moisture before sunrise, leaving the state with little more than a few morning sprinkles and a sunny but cold afternoon.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Thermal Timing Battle
The NAM suggests a much sharper cold air surge (shallow CAA) compared to the more gradual cooling in the GEM/GFS.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically handles the resolution of shallow, post-frontal cold air masses better in the 0-36 hour window.
The Wrap-Around Moisture War
The ECMWF is a significant outlier, depicting a secondary wave of moisture that interacts with the incoming arctic air to produce several inches of snow. The GFS, NAM, and GEM all show a much drier solution with moisture exiting before the freeze.
Why GFS Wins
The GFS, NAM, and GEM show better consistency regarding the dry slot timing at 700mb. The ECMWF's projection of heavy snow is treated as an outlier due to its significant disagreement with mesoscale moisture profiles.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.