kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Tue, Jan 20
Thu, Jan 22
Forecast For

Wednesday, January 21

Updated Jan 20, 5:48 PM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 20, 3:20 PM -> Jan 21, 5:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 20 at 3:20PM EST until January 21 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 20, 8:26 PM -> Jan 21, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 20 at 8:26PM EST until January 21 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 20, 8:26 PM -> Jan 21, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 20 at 8:26PM EST until January 21 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 20, 9:44 PM -> Jan 21, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 20 at 9:44PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 21, 12:50 AM -> Jan 21, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 20 at 11:50PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 21, 2:29 AM -> Jan 21, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 21 at 2:29AM EST until January 21 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 21, 2:30 AM -> Jan 21, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 21 at 2:30AM EST until January 21 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 21, 3:20 AM -> Jan 21, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 21 at 3:20AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Watch

Jan 21, 3:46 AM -> Jan 21, 12:00 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 2:46AM CST until January 25 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 21, 5:35 AM -> Jan 21, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 21 at 5:35AM EST until January 21 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 21, 6:27 AM -> Jan 21, 2:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 21 at 5:27AM CST until January 21 at 10:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Watch

Jan 21, 6:27 AM -> Jan 21, 2:30 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 5:27AM CST until January 25 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Watch

Jan 21, 6:27 AM -> Jan 21, 2:30 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 5:27AM CST until January 25 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 21, 7:39 AM -> Jan 21, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 21 at 7:39AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Storm Watch

Jan 21, 11:38 AM -> Jan 21, 7:45 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 10:38AM CST until January 25 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Winter Storm Watch

Jan 21, 11:38 AM -> Jan 22, 5:15 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 11:38AM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Storm Watch

Jan 21, 12:09 PM -> Jan 22, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 12:09PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Storm Watch

Jan 21, 12:28 PM -> Jan 21, 8:30 PM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 12:28PM EST until January 26 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Storm Watch

Jan 21, 12:30 PM -> Jan 22, 2:30 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 12:30PM EST until January 26 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 21, 1:20 PM -> Jan 21, 4:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 21 at 1:20PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Storm Watch

Jan 21, 4:37 PM -> Jan 22, 12:45 AM
Severe Severity

Winter Storm Watch issued January 21 at 3:37PM CST until January 25 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Confidence
45%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Wednesday, January 21, 2026.

Temperature
±2.8°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±12.04"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±8.0mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
41° / 29°
Actual
44° / 23°
Error: -3°F high, 6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
8.12"
±7.919999999999999" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 40 mph
Actual
7 / 29 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
39° / 25°
Actual
43° / 21°
Error: -4°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.1"
Actual
16.33"
±16.229999999999997" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 42 mph
Actual
8 / 27 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
39° / 24°
Actual
42° / 23°
Error: -3°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.25"
Actual
20.81"
±20.56" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
16 / 45 mph
Actual
8 / 29 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
40° / 24°
Actual
43° / 17°
Error: -3°F high, 7°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.1"
Actual
13.94"
±13.84" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
17 / 44 mph
Actual
5 / 24 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
38° / 24°
Actual
38° / 21°
Error: 0°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
1"
Actual
0"
±1" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
16 / 45 mph
Actual
12 / 31 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
37° / 23°
Actual
39° / 19°
Error: -2°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
26.24"
±26.04" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
18 / 50 mph
Actual
7 / 26 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
45° / 25°
Actual
50° / 13°
Error: -5°F high, 12°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.05"
Actual
23.33"
±23.279999999999998" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 40 mph
Actual
5 / 33 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
36° / 20°
Actual
38° / 18°
Error: -2°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.8"
Actual
0.05"
±0.75" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 45 mph
Actual
8 / 31 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
38° / 20°
Actual
40° / 18°
Error: -2°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
10.57"
±10.370000000000001" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
20 / 50 mph
Actual
11 / 36 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
42° / 21°
Actual
45° / 20°
Error: -3°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.15"
Actual
5.62"
±5.47" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 45 mph
Actual
7 / 36 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
44° / 18°
Actual
44° / 12°
Error: 0°F high, 6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.05"
Actual
11.73"
±11.68" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 40 mph
Actual
4 / 28 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
47° / 22°
Actual
54° / 12°
Error: -7°F high, 10°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
7.37"
±7.37" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 40 mph
Actual
4 / 34 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Winter Mix and Intense Winds Sweep Kentucky Wednesday

A dynamic winter system will bring a quick hit of snow and freezing rain to northern and western Kentucky Wednesday morning, followed by a transition to rain and powerful wind gusts statewide.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

Confidence is lowered significantly by the volatility of the rain/snow line and the stark disagreement between the NAM and Euro regarding icing potential in the Northwest Pennyrile.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

IMPACTFUL
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Windy with Morning Rain
Rain
41°/ 29°

Northwest Pennyrile

SEVERE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Icy Morning Transitioning to Rain
Freezing_Rain
39°/ 25°

Southwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
High Winds and Cold Rain
Rain
39°/ 24°

Barren River

IMPACTFUL
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Intense Gusts and Light Rain
Rain
40°/ 24°

Louisville Metro

IMPACTFUL
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Morning Snow Slush and Windy Rain
Snow
38°/ 24°

Lincoln Trail

IMPACTFUL
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Messy Wintry Mix and Severe Gusts
Wintry_Mix
37°/ 23°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Very Windy with Late Rain
Rain
45°/ 25°

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Covington, Florence, Independence
Steady Snow and Blowing Winds
Snow
36°/ 20°

Inner Bluegrass

IMPACTFUL
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Slushy Morning Mix and High Winds
Wintry_Mix
38°/ 20°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Windy with Evening Rain Showers
Rain
42°/ 21°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Cold Winds and Late Light Rain
Rain
44°/ 18°

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Dry, Windy, and Milder
Cloudy
47°/ 22°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the NAM thermal profile verifies perfectly, Northern Kentucky and the Northwest Pennyrile could see over 1.5 inches of snow and a tenth of an inch of ice glaze, with wind gusts peaking at 55 mph causing sporadic power outages.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the Euro's more aggressive warm air advection wins, the cold air retreats before the moisture arrives, resulting in a simple cold, windy rain event with no snow or ice accumulation.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

Low-Level Jet Momentum Transfer

Models disagree on how much of the 50kt wind at 850mb will mix down to the surface. The NAM is much more aggressive with gusts over 50 mph, while the GEM is more conservative at 30-35 mph.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
GEM
Why GFS Wins

The GFS provides a middle-ground solution that accounts for the strong pressure gradient while acknowledging the stability of the shallow cold layer which may initially inhibit the highest gusts from reaching the surface.

Affected Regions
LINCOLN TRAILBLUEGRASS COREBARREN RIVER

The Shallow Cold Wedge

A major conflict exists between the NAM and the Global models (GFS/Euro) regarding how long the sub-freezing air remains trapped at the surface. The NAM keeps a shallow layer of 28-30°F air along the Ohio River through midday, while the GFS/Euro scour it out by 9 AM.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

The NAM typically handles the 'cold air damming' and shallow surface inversions much better than global models within the 48-hour window. Physics suggests the heavy cloud cover and initial virga/evaporative cooling will help anchor the cold air longer than the GFS predicts.

Affected Regions
NORTHWEST PENNYRILELOUISVILLE METRONORTHERN KYBLUEGRASS CORE

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A significant temperature inversion is present with surface temperatures in the 20s and 30s beneath a +4C warm nose at 850mb.

Thermal Boundary

The freezing line is projected to stall along the Ohio River through 15z before pivoting northeast.

Diurnal Trend

Non-diurnal temperature curves are expected as strong warm air advection competes with evaporative cooling in the morning.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A warm front will lift through between 12z and 18z, evidenced by a sharp wind shift to the south and rapidly falling surface pressures.

Jet Stream Support

Upper-level divergence is provided by the right entrance region of a 110kt jet streak over the Great Lakes.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough with high-amplitude vorticity is pivoting through the Ohio Valley.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column will fully saturate by 12z, though an initial 2-hour period of virga is likely due to dry low-levels.

Precipitation Character

Stratiform precipitation transitioning to convective bursts as the warm front lifts through.

Flooding Context

Low risk; the system is progressive and liquid totals are expected to remain under 0.50 inches.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

A shallow cold layer under 2,000 feet will support snow and freezing rain before the deep warm nose forces a transition to liquid.

Crystal Habit

Snow will be wet and heavy with low ratios (5:1 to 8:1) as the column warms toward the freezing point.

Road Impact

Slick spots are expected on elevated surfaces and bridges in Northern and Western KY during the morning hours.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

7% Illumination
Moonrise
9:44 AM
Moonset
8:07 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
8:05 AM
Sunset
6:07 PM
Civil Dawn
7:37 AM
Civil Dusk
6:36 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:01 AM
Sunset
6:00 PM
Civil Dawn
7:32 AM
Civil Dusk
6:28 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:00 AM
Sunset
6:04 PM
Civil Dawn
7:32 AM
Civil Dusk
6:31 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:56 AM
Sunset
5:59 PM
Civil Dawn
7:28 AM
Civil Dusk
6:27 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:57 AM
Sunset
5:53 PM
Civil Dawn
7:28 AM
Civil Dusk
6:22 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:56 AM
Sunset
5:55 PM
Civil Dawn
7:27 AM
Civil Dusk
6:23 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:49 AM
Sunset
5:51 PM
Civil Dawn
7:21 AM
Civil Dusk
6:20 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:54 AM
Sunset
5:46 PM
Civil Dawn
7:25 AM
Civil Dusk
6:15 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:51 AM
Sunset
5:49 PM
Civil Dawn
7:23 AM
Civil Dusk
6:17 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:49 AM
Sunset
5:49 PM
Civil Dawn
7:21 AM
Civil Dusk
6:17 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:45 AM
Sunset
5:40 PM
Civil Dawn
7:16 AM
Civil Dusk
6:09 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:44 AM
Sunset
5:45 PM
Civil Dawn
7:16 AM
Civil Dusk
6:14 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.