kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Mon, Jan 19
Wed, Jan 21
Forecast For

Tuesday, January 20

Updated Jan 19, 5:47 PM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 11:58 AM -> Jan 19, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 11:58AM EST until January 20 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 19, 3:05 PM -> Jan 20, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 19 at 3:05PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 3:24 PM -> Jan 20, 3:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 3:24PM EST until January 20 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 3:28 PM -> Jan 20, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 3:28PM EST until January 20 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 19, 5:15 PM -> Jan 19, 11:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 19 at 5:15PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 6:31 PM -> Jan 20, 2:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 6:31PM EST until January 20 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 8:01 PM -> Jan 20, 4:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 8:01PM EST until January 20 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 8:22 PM -> Jan 20, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 8:22PM EST until January 20 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 10:55 PM -> Jan 20, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 10:55PM EST until January 20 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 20, 12:00 AM -> Jan 20, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 20 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 20, 12:59 AM -> Jan 20, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 20 at 12:59AM EST until January 20 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 20, 3:30 AM -> Jan 20, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 20 at 3:30AM EST until January 20 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 20, 3:35 AM -> Jan 20, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 20 at 3:35AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 20, 9:50 AM -> Jan 20, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 20 at 9:50AM EST until January 20 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 20, 3:20 PM -> Jan 21, 5:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 20 at 3:20PM EST until January 21 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Confidence
90%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Tuesday, January 20, 2026.

Temperature
±4.0°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±0.00"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±4.1mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
34° / 16°
Actual
39° / 9°
Error: -5°F high, 7°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 26 mph
Actual
3 / 17 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
30° / 11°
Actual
34° / 7°
Error: -4°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 30 mph
Actual
4 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
32° / 14°
Actual
36° / 6°
Error: -4°F high, 8°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 20 mph
Actual
4 / 17 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
31° / 13°
Actual
32° / 7°
Error: -1°F high, 6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 18 mph
Actual
4 / 16 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
26° / 12°
Actual
27° / 8°
Error: -1°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 25 mph
Actual
6 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
27° / 11°
Actual
29° / 4°
Error: -2°F high, 7°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 26 mph
Actual
3 / 16 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
27° / 14°
Actual
32° / 6°
Error: -5°F high, 8°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
5 / 12 mph
Actual
3 / 16 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
22° / 8°
Actual
25° / 8°
Error: -3°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 20 mph
Actual
4 / 17 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
24° / 10°
Actual
32° / 9°
Error: -8°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 20 mph
Actual
6 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
25° / 12°
Actual
29° / 7°
Error: -4°F high, 5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 16 mph
Actual
4 / 14 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
23° / 12°
Actual
27° / 8°
Error: -4°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 17 mph
Actual
4 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
25° / 14°
Actual
32° / 7°
Error: -7°F high, 7°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 16 mph
Actual
3 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Frigid Arctic Air and Dangerous Morning Wind Chills

A powerful Arctic high-pressure system will anchor over the region, delivering the coldest air of the season. Expect clear skies but dangerously low wind chills in the morning across the entire Commonwealth.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High agreement among all models on the absence of precipitation and the general placement of the Arctic high. The only variance is in the magnitude of the morning temperature floor.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Cold Sunshine in the Purchase
Sunny
34°/ 16°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Biting Winds and Afternoon Clouds
Cloudy
30°/ 11°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Sunny but Frigid
Sunny
32°/ 14°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Extreme Cold for Bowling Green
Sunny
31°/ 13°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Urban Deep Freeze
Sunny
26°/ 12°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Bitter Cold for Elizabethtown
Sunny
27°/ 11°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Bright and Frigid
Sunny
27°/ 14°

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Covington, Florence, Independence
Sub-Zero Wind Chills This Morning
Sunny
22°/ 8°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Bitter Cold across the Bluegrass
Sunny
24°/ 10°

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Cold and Crisp
Sunny
25°/ 12°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Cold Valley Air
Sunny
23°/ 12°

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Bright and Bitter
Sunny
25°/ 14°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the boundary layer fully decouples and GEM's sub-zero lows verify, morning temperatures could reach -5°F in some valleys, leading to localized extreme wind chill impacts.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If mid-level clouds arrive earlier than expected from the west, afternoon solar insolation will be truncated, keeping high temperatures in the mid-20s for the entire state.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Radiational Cooling Floor

A significant disagreement exists regarding morning low temperatures. The GEM is forecasting sub-zero lows for much of Central and Western KY, while the Euro and GFS keep lows in the 10-15°F range.

GEM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

While the Arctic airmass is potent, a persistent pressure gradient between the building high and the departing trough should prevent total decoupling of the boundary layer, making GEM's sub-zero solutions unlikely outside of the deepest sinkholes.

Affected Regions
LOUISVILLE METRONORTHWEST PENNYRILEBLUEGRASS COREBARREN RIVER

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

Deep isothermal layer in the lower troposphere with a sharp surface-based inversion likely during the early morning. 850mb temps ranging from -12C in the southwest to -18C in the northeast.

Thermal Boundary

The primary Arctic front is located well south of the Tennessee border, leaving the entire Commonwealth in the deep cold sector.

Diurnal Trend

Standard diurnal curve but with very low amplitude. High temperatures will struggle to rise more than 15-20 degrees from morning lows due to persistent CAA.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A secondary dry Arctic front will slide through during the afternoon, evidenced by a modest wind shift and increased gustiness to 25 mph.

Jet Stream Support

State is under the subsident right entrance region of a departing jet streak, which enhances the dry high-pressure influence.

Energy Status

Weak mid-level shortwaves are moving through the flow, but they are moisture-starved and will only manifest as transient mid-level clouds.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Extreme dryness throughout the column; surface dewpoint depressions exceed 20°F in most locations.

Precipitation Character

None. Only high-level cirrus expected.

Flooding Context

No flooding risk; ground beginning to freeze.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

3% Illumination
Moonrise
9:16 AM
Moonset
7:01 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
8:06 AM
Sunset
6:06 PM
Civil Dawn
7:38 AM
Civil Dusk
6:35 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:01 AM
Sunset
5:59 PM
Civil Dawn
7:33 AM
Civil Dusk
6:27 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:01 AM
Sunset
6:02 PM
Civil Dawn
7:33 AM
Civil Dusk
6:30 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:57 AM
Sunset
5:58 PM
Civil Dawn
7:29 AM
Civil Dusk
6:26 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:57 AM
Sunset
5:52 PM
Civil Dawn
7:28 AM
Civil Dusk
6:21 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:56 AM
Sunset
5:54 PM
Civil Dawn
7:28 AM
Civil Dusk
6:22 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:50 AM
Sunset
5:50 PM
Civil Dawn
7:22 AM
Civil Dusk
6:19 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:54 AM
Sunset
5:45 PM
Civil Dawn
7:25 AM
Civil Dusk
6:14 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:52 AM
Sunset
5:48 PM
Civil Dawn
7:23 AM
Civil Dusk
6:16 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:50 AM
Sunset
5:48 PM
Civil Dawn
7:22 AM
Civil Dusk
6:16 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:45 AM
Sunset
5:39 PM
Civil Dawn
7:16 AM
Civil Dusk
6:08 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:44 AM
Sunset
5:44 PM
Civil Dawn
7:16 AM
Civil Dusk
6:13 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.