kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Sun, Jan 18
Tue, Jan 20
Forecast For

Monday, January 19

Updated Jan 18, 5:45 PM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Special Weather Statement

Jan 18, 2:38 PM -> Jan 18, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 18 at 2:38PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 18, 7:17 PM -> Jan 19, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 18 at 7:17PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 12:14 AM -> Jan 19, 8:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 12:14AM EST until January 20 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 1:40 AM -> Jan 19, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 1:40AM EST until January 20 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 1:57 AM -> Jan 19, 4:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 1:57AM EST until January 20 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 2:20 AM -> Jan 19, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 2:20AM EST until January 20 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 19, 4:06 AM -> Jan 19, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 19 at 4:06AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 19, 5:10 AM -> Jan 19, 6:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 19 at 5:10AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 8:03 AM -> Jan 19, 4:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 8:03AM EST until January 20 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 10:44 AM -> Jan 19, 6:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 10:44AM EST until January 20 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 11:58 AM -> Jan 19, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 11:58AM EST until January 20 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 19, 3:05 PM -> Jan 20, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 19 at 3:05PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 3:24 PM -> Jan 20, 3:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 3:24PM EST until January 20 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 3:28 PM -> Jan 20, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 3:28PM EST until January 20 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 19, 5:15 PM -> Jan 19, 11:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 19 at 5:15PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Cold Weather Advisory

Jan 19, 6:31 PM -> Jan 20, 2:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Cold Weather Advisory issued January 19 at 6:31PM EST until January 20 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Confidence
90%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Monday, January 19, 2026.

Temperature
±5.5°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±0.00"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±4.8mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
27° / 16°
Actual
32° / 19°
Error: -5°F high, -3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 25 mph
Actual
8 / 24 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
23° / 10°
Actual
29° / 18°
Error: -6°F high, -8°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 32 mph
Actual
10 / 29 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
29° / 14°
Actual
32° / 18°
Error: -3°F high, -4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 26 mph
Actual
9 / 30 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
28° / 9°
Actual
34° / 20°
Error: -6°F high, -11°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 25 mph
Actual
8 / 27 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
24° / 10°
Actual
27° / 18°
Error: -3°F high, -8°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 28 mph
Actual
12 / 40 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
24° / 10°
Actual
29° / 18°
Error: -5°F high, -8°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 32 mph
Actual
9 / 33 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
29° / 13°
Actual
36° / 23°
Error: -7°F high, -10°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 28 mph
Actual
7 / 30 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
22° / 7°
Actual
26° / 16°
Error: -4°F high, -9°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 29 mph
Actual
8 / 33 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
24° / 8°
Actual
30° / 20°
Error: -6°F high, -12°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
17 / 33 mph
Actual
12 / 29 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
26° / 12°
Actual
34° / 21°
Error: -8°F high, -9°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 33 mph
Actual
10 / 26 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
27° / 13°
Actual
33° / 22°
Error: -6°F high, -9°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 30 mph
Actual
9 / 31 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
30° / 14°
Actual
37° / 21°
Error: -7°F high, -7°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 28 mph
Actual
6 / 29 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Arctic Grip: Biting Winds and Sub-Freezing Temperatures

A powerful arctic high pressure system will dominate the Commonwealth on Monday, bringing frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills despite periods of sunshine. No measurable precipitation is expected as a bone-dry air mass settles over the Ohio Valley.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High model agreement on a dry forecast and the presence of an arctic air mass. The only minor uncertainty lies in the exact timing of the secondary temperature drop and the extent of morning cloud cover.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Sunny and Frigid with Sharp Winds
Sunny
27°/ 16°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Biting Winds and Sub-Freezing Temps
Sunny
23°/ 10°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Bright Skies, Harsh Arctic Cold
Sunny
29°/ 14°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Deep Freeze Under Clear Skies
Sunny
28°/ 9°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Arctic Surge: Temperatures Falling All Day
Sunny
24°/ 10°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Frigid and Clear on the Escarpment
Sunny
24°/ 10°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Brisk Winds and Cold Sunshine
Sunny
29°/ 13°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Dangerous Wind Chills Below Zero
Cloudy
22°/ 7°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Lexington Braces for Biting Arctic Winds
Sunny
24°/ 8°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Cold and Gusty in the Foothills
Sunny
26°/ 12°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Gloomy Morning, Frigid Afternoon
Cloudy
27°/ 13°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Mountain Sunshine and Deep Freeze
Sunny
30°/ 14°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

A slightly slower arrival of the secondary arctic surge could allow southern Kentucky to briefly touch 32°F before plummeting after sunset.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If stratocumulus clouds from the Great Lakes moisture fetch linger longer than expected in Northern and Central Kentucky, daytime recovery will be non-existent, keeping many areas in the low 20s all day.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Valley Radiational Cooling Floor

The GEM is significantly more aggressive with overnight lows, dropping temperatures into the single digits for the Bluegrass and Eastern valleys, whereas the NAM keeps values in the mid-teens.

GEM
VS
NAM
Why GEM Wins

In a high-pressure setup with PWAT values below 0.20 inches and clearing skies, the GEM's cold bias often verifies as it better captures the rapid thermal loss in the Kentucky valley systems.

Affected Regions
BLUEGRASS COREBLUEGRASS FOOTHILLSNORTHEAST KYSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

The Non-Diurnal Curve Conflict

The Euro and GEM suggest temperatures will peak during the morning hours and fall through the afternoon as a secondary arctic boundary clears the state, while the NAM and GFS show a more traditional, albeit suppressed, diurnal rise.

EURO
VS
GEM
VS
NAM
Why EURO Wins

The ECMWF handles secondary cold-air surges and the associated thermal advection in post-frontal regimes with higher precision than the GFS, which often over-corrects for solar heating in dry arctic air.

Affected Regions
LOUISVILLE METRONORTHERN KYBLUEGRASS CORENORTHEAST KY

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The vertical profile is characterized by a deep arctic air mass with a standard adiabatic lapse rate in the morning transitioning to a surface-based inversion by evening. 850mb temps of -12C to -15C ensure no melting layers exist.

Thermal Boundary

The primary arctic front has pushed into the Gulf states; a secondary arctic surge is clearing the Tennessee border by midday.

Diurnal Trend

A non-diurnal trend will be prevalent across the northern half of the state, with peak temperatures occurring between 8 AM and 11 AM before falling throughout the afternoon.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

Secondary arctic front clears the state by 18Z, evidenced by a shift to sustained northerly winds and rapidly dropping dewpoints into the single digits.

Jet Stream Support

The region is in the right entrance region of a departing 300mb jet streak, providing strong subsidence and dry air.

Energy Status

Weak vorticity pulses are rotating through the cyclonic flow, but a lack of moisture prevents any development.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is extremely dry; dewpoint depressions are 15-25F. PWAT values are below 0.15 inches, near record lows for the date.

Precipitation Character

Non-existent. Any lingering clouds will be shallow stratiform decks beneath a 900mb subsidence inversion.

Flooding Context

No hydrologic risk. Soils are freezing from the surface down.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

Isothermal cold layer from surface to 700mb; no warm nose present. Entire column is well below freezing.

Crystal Habit

N/A (Dry)

Road Impact

Flash freezing of any residual moisture on road surfaces is possible as temperatures drop through the morning.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

New Moon

0% Illumination
Moonrise
8:46 AM
Moonset
--:--
Purchase Area
Sunrise
8:06 AM
Sunset
6:05 PM
Civil Dawn
7:38 AM
Civil Dusk
6:34 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:02 AM
Sunset
5:58 PM
Civil Dawn
7:33 AM
Civil Dusk
6:26 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:01 AM
Sunset
6:01 PM
Civil Dawn
7:33 AM
Civil Dusk
6:29 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:57 AM
Sunset
5:57 PM
Civil Dawn
7:29 AM
Civil Dusk
6:25 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:58 AM
Sunset
5:51 PM
Civil Dawn
7:29 AM
Civil Dusk
6:20 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:57 AM
Sunset
5:53 PM
Civil Dawn
7:28 AM
Civil Dusk
6:21 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:50 AM
Sunset
5:49 PM
Civil Dawn
7:22 AM
Civil Dusk
6:18 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:55 AM
Sunset
5:44 PM
Civil Dawn
7:26 AM
Civil Dusk
6:13 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:52 AM
Sunset
5:47 PM
Civil Dawn
7:23 AM
Civil Dusk
6:15 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:50 AM
Sunset
5:47 PM
Civil Dawn
7:22 AM
Civil Dusk
6:15 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:46 AM
Sunset
5:38 PM
Civil Dawn
7:17 AM
Civil Dusk
6:07 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:45 AM
Sunset
5:43 PM
Civil Dawn
7:17 AM
Civil Dusk
6:12 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.