kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Sat, Jan 17
Mon, Jan 19
Forecast For

Sunday, January 18

Updated Jan 17, 5:51 PM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Special Weather Statement

Jan 17, 10:19 PM -> Jan 18, 4:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 17 at 10:19PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 17, 11:22 PM -> Jan 18, 3:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 17 at 11:22PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Jan 17, 11:38 PM -> Jan 18, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 17 at 11:38PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 18, 6:11 AM -> Jan 18, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 18 at 6:11AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 18, 2:38 PM -> Jan 18, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 18 at 2:38PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Confidence
45%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Sunday, January 18, 2026.

Temperature
±5.5°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±0.11"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±3.9mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
32° / 17°
Actual
31° / 13°
Error: 1°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 38 mph
Actual
7 / 21 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
27° / 9°
Actual
30° / 10°
Error: -3°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 25 mph
Actual
7 / 26 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
29° / 14°
Actual
30° / 10°
Error: -1°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 24 mph
Actual
5 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
28° / 15°
Actual
29° / 13°
Error: -1°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 22 mph
Actual
5 / 23 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
25° / 14°
Actual
25° / 12°
Error: 0°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 22 mph
Actual
8 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
26° / 14°
Actual
28° / 10°
Error: -2°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 24 mph
Actual
5 / 23 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
27° / 18°
Actual
38° / 14°
Error: -11°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.05"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 18 mph
Actual
5 / 31 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
23° / 13°
Actual
29° / 12°
Error: -6°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.1"
Actual
0.09"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 22 mph
Actual
5 / 27 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
25° / 15°
Actual
34° / 14°
Error: -9°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.1"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 24 mph
Actual
8 / 31 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
26° / 16°
Actual
36° / 14°
Error: -10°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.1"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 22 mph
Actual
6 / 31 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
27° / 19°
Actual
35° / 16°
Error: -8°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 18 mph
Actual
5 / 25 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
28° / 20°
Actual
42° / 17°
Error: -14°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
1.01"
±0.81" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 18 mph
Actual
3 / 30 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Bitter Cold Grips Kentucky with Morning Flurries East

A powerful arctic air mass will maintain its hold over Kentucky on Sunday. While Western Kentucky remains dry under sunny skies, a weak moisture-starved clipper system will bring light snow flurries and a minor dusting to Central and Eastern Kentucky during the morning hours. Frigid temperatures and biting wind chills will be the primary concern statewide.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

Confidence is very high regarding the frigid temperatures, but lower concerning whether the light snow flurries will overcome the dry air in the lower atmosphere to produce a dusting.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Cold Sunshine and Biting Winds
Sunny
32°/ 17°

Northwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Frigid with Sub-Zero Wind Chills
Sunny
27°/ 9°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Dry and Very Cold
Sunny
29°/ 14°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Cold and Bright in Bowling Green
Sunny
28°/ 15°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Morning Cloudiness and Bitter Cold
Cloudy
25°/ 14°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Overcast and Frigid
Cloudy
26°/ 14°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Morning Flurries Possible
Snow
27°/ 18°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Coldest Day with Passing Flurries
Snow
23°/ 13°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Early Morning Dusting and Bitter Cold
Snow
25°/ 15°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Nuisance Flurries and Chilly Skies
Snow
26°/ 16°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Minor Snow Dusting Possible
Snow
27°/ 19°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Mountain Flurries and Morning Cold
Snow
28°/ 20°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the clipper wrings out slightly more moisture than modeled, localized areas in the Eastern Coalfields could see up to 1 inch of fluffy snow due to orographic enhancement and high snow-to-liquid ratios.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The 'Virga' scenario: Sub-cloud dry air is so deep that flurries evaporate before reaching the ground, leaving the entire state dry despite the overcast skies.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Arctic Floor Fight

The GEM is aggressively cold with morning lows in the single digits, while the NAM and GFS keep temperatures in the upper teens.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
GEM
Why BLEND Wins

The NAM captures the shallow cold pool well, but the GEM likely over-forecasts radiational cooling given the expected cloud cover from the clipper.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILELOUISVILLE METRO

The Clipper Contradiction

The Euro forecasts a specific clipper system bringing light snow to Central/Eastern KY, while the NAM and GEM maintain a completely dry column due to the strength of the arctic high.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

The Euro's superior handling of right-entrance jet dynamics and shallow moisture profiles often outperforms drier global models in 'moisture-starved' clipper setups.

Affected Regions
NORTHERN KYBLUEGRASS COREBLUEGRASS FOOTHILLSNORTHEAST KYSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A classic arctic vertical stack is in place. An isothermal layer exists from the surface to 850mb, with temperatures at the 850mb level averaging -14C.

Thermal Boundary

The arctic freezing line is suppressed well south into the Gulf States, leaving no risk of melting or liquid precipitation.

Diurnal Trend

A non-diurnal trend is possible in Western KY where evening winds increase, but generally, the state will follow a suppressed diurnal curve starting from a very low baseline.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

The primary arctic front has passed; the current system is a secondary clipper shortwave following the main surge.

Jet Stream Support

Moderate lift is provided by the right entrance region of a 100kt jet streak over the Northern Ohio Valley.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough with a distinct vorticity max is pivoting through the central Commonwealth between 06z and 12z.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is marginally saturated below 850mb, but a deep dry layer remains between 850mb and 700mb, creating a virga risk.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be stratiform light snow and flurries with low intensity.

Flooding Context

Zero flood risk. Ground is frozen or near-freezing, and total liquid equivalents are below 0.05 inches.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

Entire thermal profile is sub-freezing. No warm nose present. Snow-to-liquid ratios (SLR) will be high, roughly 15:1.

Crystal Habit

Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ) is near the surface, supporting high-quality, fluffy snow flakes.

Road Impact

Pavement temperatures are well below freezing; any flakes that fall will accumulate immediately, though low volume limits major travel impacts.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

New Moon

0% Illumination
Moonrise
8:10 AM
Moonset
5:56 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
8:07 AM
Sunset
6:04 PM
Civil Dawn
7:38 AM
Civil Dusk
6:33 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:02 AM
Sunset
5:57 PM
Civil Dawn
7:34 AM
Civil Dusk
6:25 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:02 AM
Sunset
6:00 PM
Civil Dawn
7:33 AM
Civil Dusk
6:29 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:58 AM
Sunset
5:56 PM
Civil Dawn
7:30 AM
Civil Dusk
6:24 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:58 AM
Sunset
5:50 PM
Civil Dawn
7:29 AM
Civil Dusk
6:19 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:57 AM
Sunset
5:52 PM
Civil Dawn
7:29 AM
Civil Dusk
6:20 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:51 AM
Sunset
5:48 PM
Civil Dawn
7:22 AM
Civil Dusk
6:17 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:55 AM
Sunset
5:43 PM
Civil Dawn
7:26 AM
Civil Dusk
6:12 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:52 AM
Sunset
5:46 PM
Civil Dawn
7:24 AM
Civil Dusk
6:14 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:51 AM
Sunset
5:45 PM
Civil Dawn
7:22 AM
Civil Dusk
6:14 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:46 AM
Sunset
5:37 PM
Civil Dawn
7:17 AM
Civil Dusk
6:06 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:45 AM
Sunset
5:42 PM
Civil Dawn
7:17 AM
Civil Dusk
6:11 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.