Sunday, January 18
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 17 at 10:19PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Minor snow accumulations, generally around a coating to less than one-half inch, are expected as an upper disturbance and cold front move across eastern Kentucky through the late evening and pre-dawn hours Sunday. The snow will be brief in nature, and for many places be accompanied by west to northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. The combination of snow and gusty winds, though short in duration, may result in sharply reduced visibility and potentially slick roads if out traveling late this evening into the overnight. Travelers are encouraged to slow down and use their low-beam headlights to ensure they reach their intended destination safely.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 17 at 11:22PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
A cold front crossing the area overnight, with a wave of low pressure moving up along it, will bring about a period of snow with temperatures falling below freezing, along with a brief period of gusty winds. Snow could accumulate one to two inches. This will lead to snow covered roads, with moisture freezing beneath the snow, along with reduced visibility. Be prepared for slick spots on untreated roads early this morning, particularly on bridges and overpasses. Please allow extra time to reach your destination.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 17 at 11:38PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Minor snow accumulations, generally around a coating to less than one-half inch, are expected as an upper disturbance and cold front move across eastern Kentucky through the pre-dawn hours Sunday. The snow will be brief in nature, and for many places be accompanied by west to northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. The combination of snow and gusty winds, though relatively brief in duration, may result in reduced visibility and potentially slick roads if out traveling late this evening into the overnight. Travelers are encouraged to slow down and use their low-beam headlights to ensure they reach their intended destination safely.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 18 at 6:11AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Light snow will move across the region this morning. Slippery conditions will be possible along roadways, particularly on untreated roads and overpasses. If traveling, be prepared for wintery driving conditions.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 18 at 2:38PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
A few hours of light snow are expected late this evening, mainly after 8 pm. While accumulations will be light, some challenging travel conditions may develop given the cold temperatures. Use caution and allow for extra time to reach your destination.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Sunday, January 18, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Bitter Cold Grips Kentucky with Morning Flurries East
A powerful arctic air mass will maintain its hold over Kentucky on Sunday. While Western Kentucky remains dry under sunny skies, a weak moisture-starved clipper system will bring light snow flurries and a minor dusting to Central and Eastern Kentucky during the morning hours. Frigid temperatures and biting wind chills will be the primary concern statewide.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is very high regarding the frigid temperatures, but lower concerning whether the light snow flurries will overcome the dry air in the lower atmosphere to produce a dusting.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Expect a bright but very cold day with temperatures barely reaching the freezing mark. The main story will be the wind, with gusts over 35 mph making it feel much colder in the evening.
Northwest Pennyrile
A bitterly cold morning will see wind chills dip near or slightly below zero. The afternoon will remain clear and cold with highs staying in the mid-20s.
Southwest Pennyrile
Plenty of sunshine today, but it won't help much with the chill. Highs will only reach the upper 20s, and clouds will start to increase late in the day.
Barren River
Expect clear skies and cold temperatures throughout the day. Highs will struggle to reach 28 degrees, with wind chills remaining in the single digits through the morning.
Louisville Metro
The city will be under cloudy skies this morning with a few stray flurries possible, though no accumulation is expected. Temperatures will stay below freezing all day.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a grey and very cold day. Wind chills will stay in the single digits for much of the morning, with highs only reaching the mid-20s.
Lake Cumberland
A few light snow flurries may fall this morning. Any accumulation will be less than 0.1 inches, primarily on grassy surfaces. The rest of the day will be cold and dry.
Northern Kentucky
Temperatures will stay in the low 20s all day. Light snow flurries will occur sporadically through the morning, with accumulations around 0.1 inches possible.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect light snow flurries this morning in Lexington. Accumulations around 0.1 inches are possible, but the main story is the bitter cold and single-digit wind chills.
Bluegrass Foothills
Light snow showers will impact the area this morning, with accumulations around 0.1 inches. It will stay very cold with highs in the mid-20s.
Northeast Kentucky
Light snow showers this morning may leave accumulations around 0.2 inches in Ashland. Watch for a few slick spots on roads before the sun breaks through this afternoon.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect light snow flurries across the mountains this morning, resulting in accumulations around 0.2 inches. Temperatures will remain well below freezing all day.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the clipper wrings out slightly more moisture than modeled, localized areas in the Eastern Coalfields could see up to 1 inch of fluffy snow due to orographic enhancement and high snow-to-liquid ratios.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Virga' scenario: Sub-cloud dry air is so deep that flurries evaporate before reaching the ground, leaving the entire state dry despite the overcast skies.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Arctic Floor Fight
The GEM is aggressively cold with morning lows in the single digits, while the NAM and GFS keep temperatures in the upper teens.
Why BLEND Wins
The NAM captures the shallow cold pool well, but the GEM likely over-forecasts radiational cooling given the expected cloud cover from the clipper.
The Clipper Contradiction
The Euro forecasts a specific clipper system bringing light snow to Central/Eastern KY, while the NAM and GEM maintain a completely dry column due to the strength of the arctic high.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro's superior handling of right-entrance jet dynamics and shallow moisture profiles often outperforms drier global models in 'moisture-starved' clipper setups.
Celestial Almanac
New Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.