Thursday, January 15
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 14 at 10:57AM EST until January 15 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulation of up to 2 inches, except localized amounts of 3 to 7 inches possible on Big Black Mountain.
WHERE Harlan, Letcher, and Pike Counties.
WHEN From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute over Big Black Mountain and the Thursday morning commute across the entire advisory area.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 10:59AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Light rain will switch over to snow showers from northwest to southeast later today as temperatures tumble below freezing behind a strong cold front. The transition to snow showers is expected to occur around 5 PM north of I-64 to around 8 PM in the deeper valleys of the Big Sandy Basin and near the Tennessee border. The snow showers will be most widespread through the first half of tonight, before slowly diminishing Thursday morning. A few brief snow squalls are also possible, leading to sudden visibility reductions and snow-covered roadways. Due to the scattered nature of the snow showers and squalls, weather conditions could vary dramatically over short distances. Snow accumulations are forecast to range from a few tenths to around 1 inch for most locations. However, locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out at elevations above 1,500 feet and also in areas impacted by more persistent snow shower and squall activity. Additionally, temperatures will drop into the teens to near 20 degrees tonight. Thus any remaining liquid water on untreated roadways will tend to freeze overnight, potentially leading to slippery travel in some places. Those with travel plans this evening into Thursday morning should be prepared for slippery spots in addition to sudden reductions in visibility and snow-covered roadway conditions when encountering heavier snow showers and squalls.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 2:24PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
Light rain will change to snow showers later this evening and tonight, with snow showers expected area wide by 10 PM this evening. Generally light accumulations are anticipated, however, with the falling temperatures, slick conditions will be possible on untreated roadways through Thursday. In addition, heavier bands of snow, and gusty winds at times could produce sudden visibility reductions. Those traveling this evening and overnight should be prepared for the potential of reduced visibility and slick conditions in spots. These conditions may persist into the Thursday morning commute. Please allow extra time to reach your destination if traveling.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 3:27PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
Some isolated to scattered snow showers are possible across the area through the rest of this afternoon and early evening. While accumulations are expected to be mainly on elevated or grassy surfaces, there could be some rapid changes in conditions with any snow shower. Visibility may be reduced to less than half a mile in snow showers. In addition to the chance for snow showers, gusty northwest winds of 30-40 mph are expected through this evening.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 14 at 5:03PM EST until January 15 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Much colder air will arrive and snow showers are expected, but the snow showers will gradually taper off overnight and on Saturday. Most locations should have snow accumulations of less than an inch. However, localized amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, especially at elevations above 2500 feet.
WHERE The Winter Weather Advisory is for Harlan, Letcher, and Pike counties in Kentucky.
WHEN The Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 10 AM EST Thursday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 8:39PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
HAZARDS An area of briefly heavy snow accompanied by winds gusts of 20 to 30 MPH and visibility of less than a mile will affect the region. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 836 PM EST, an area of briefly heavy snow was along a line extending from Bowen to Mount Olive to Island City and moving southeast at 35 MPH. The area affected includes the Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 23 and 49. SAFETY INFO... Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this area. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads may lead to accidents.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 8:54PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
A few moderate snow bands will continue this evening. An additional quarter to half inch could fall where bands are the most persistent. Gusty winds of 25 to 35 mph will continue causing visibility to drop below a mile and in some isolated cases below a half mile. Watch for slick spots on elevated and untreated surfaces.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 9:18PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
HAZARDS An area of briefly heavy snow accompanied by winds of 20 to 30 MPH and visibility of less than a mile will affect the area. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 915 PM EST, an area of briefly heavy snow was along a line extending from Campton to Gentry to Buckhorn and moving southeast at 35 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... Hal Rogers Parkway between mile markers 54 and 59. Kentucky Highway 80 in Knott County between mile markers 1 and 13. Kentucky Highway 80 in Perry County between mile markers 9 and 15. SAFETY INFO... Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this area of briefly heavy snow. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads may lead to accidents.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 9:58PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Scattered snow showers occurring across the region will gradually diminish into the overnight hours. While any accumulation will be less than an inch, this will create slick roadways. Not all roads will be affected, but motorists should be aware that driving conditions may change quickly along their route, going from dry to slick. If traveling tonight, use extra caution and allow for extra time to reach your destination.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 10:36PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
HAZARDS An area of briefly heavy snow accompanied by wind gusts of 20 to 30 MPH and visibility of less than one mile will affect the area. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 1031 PM EST, an area of briefly heavy snow was along a line extending from Melvin to Gander and moving southeast at 30 MPH. This will affect the following highways... Kentucky Highway 80 in Knott County between mile markers 1 and 16. Kentucky Highway 80 in Perry County between mile markers 10 and 15. U.S. Highway 23 in Lethcher County between mile markers 1 and 7. U.S. Highway 23 in Pike County between mile markers 0 and 8. SAFETY INFO... Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this area. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads may lead to accidents.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 15 at 12:16AM EST until January 15 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Snow showers will gradually diminish overnight and on Saturday morning. Most locations should have total snow accumulations of less than an inch. However, localized amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, especially at elevations above 2500 feet.
WHERE The Winter Weather Advisory is for Harlan, Letcher, and Pike counties in Kentucky.
WHEN The Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 10 AM EST Thursday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 15 at 12:38AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
The combination of patchy light snowfall and rapidly falling temperatures has allowed for black ice to form on untreated roadways. Sheltered and elevated surfaces will be most likely to have black ice, but caution should be used on all roadways as conditions can deteriorate rapidly over short distances given the patchy nature of snowfall. Temperatures will not rise above freezing, so the Thursday morning commute could be affected for any untreated areas.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 15 at 12:56AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
The combination of a few lingering snow showers and rapidly falling temperatures will allow black ice and slippery spots to form on untreated roadways early this morning. Sheltered and elevated surfaces will be most prone to have issues. The Thursday morning commute could be affected.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 15 at 1:04AM EST until January 15 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Snow showers will gradually diminish overnight and on Thursday morning. Most locations should have total snow accumulations of less than an inch. However, localized amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, especially at elevations above 2500 feet.
WHERE The Winter Weather Advisory is for Harlan, Letcher, and Pike counties in Kentucky.
WHEN The Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 10 AM EST Thursday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 15 at 2:37AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Scattered snow showers occurring across the region will gradually diminish early this morning. While any accumulation will be less than an inch, this will create slick roadways with a quick coating of snow. Not all roads will be affected, but motorists should be aware that driving conditions may change quickly along their route, going from dry to slick. If traveling this morning, use extra caution and allow for extra time to reach your destination.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 15 at 2:49AM EST by NWS Charleston WV
Snow showers are expected area wide through the morning. Generally light accumulations are anticipated, however, with the falling temperatures, slick conditions will be possible on untreated roadways. In addition, heavier bands of snow, and gusty winds at times could produce sudden visibility reductions. Those traveling should be prepared for the potential of reduced visibility and slick conditions in spots. These conditions may persist through the morning commute. Please allow extra time to reach your destination if traveling.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 15 at 3:23AM EST until January 15 at 9:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Snow. Additional snow accumulations up to one inch. Locally up to 2 inches will be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast and northern Kentucky and central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.
WHEN Until 9 AM EST this morning.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Kentucky, visit goky.ky.gov for the latest road information. In Ohio, visit ohgo.com for the latest road information.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 15 at 5:59AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
The combination moisture from precipitation last night and well below freezing temperatures may lead to black ice and slippery spots on untreated roadways this morning. Sheltered and elevated surfaces will be most prone to have issues. The morning commute could be affected.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 15 at 5:59AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
The combination of a few lingering snow showers and well below freezing temperatures will allow for black ice and slippery spots on untreated roadways this morning. Roadways above 2,000 feet will be most prone to have issues. The morning commute could be affected.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 15 at 6:43AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Scattered snow showers occurring across the region will gradually diminish through 9 AM. Most locations will observe snow accumulations of an inch or less. In some of the better snow bands, locally up to 2 inches will be possible. The cold temperatures will create slick roadways due to the coating of snow. Motorists should be aware that driving conditions may change quickly along their route, going from dry to slick. If traveling this morning, use extra caution and allow for extra time to reach your destination.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 15 at 8:39AM EST until January 15 at 9:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Untreated surfaces may still be slick through the morning given the cold temperatures, but travel conditions are improving across the area.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 15 at 3:46PM EST until January 16 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Snow showers are expected to cause negative travel impacts to the Friday morning commute hours. Minor snow accumulations less than one inch expected.
WHERE Portions of southern Indiana and north central Kentucky along and north of I-64.
WHEN From 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Friday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Thursday, January 15, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Arctic High Pressure Battles Lone Snow Outlier
A powerful arctic airmass will maintain a firm grip on Kentucky, bringing sub-freezing temperatures and dangerous wind chills. While the ECMWF model suggests a quick-hitting snow event, the consensus of NAM, GFS, and GEM data indicates a moisture-starved environment where dry air at the surface will likely evaporate any falling flakes as virga.
Confidence Assessment
Significant disagreement between the high-performing ECMWF (Snow) and the GFS/NAM/GEM (Dry) regarding the ability of a shortwave to overcome a massive dry slot.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
A cold and bright day is expected with temperatures staying below freezing. No snow accumulation is forecast despite the passing clouds.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a very cold day with highs in the mid-20s. Biting winds will make it feel much colder, and no snow is expected.
Southwest Pennyrile
Skies will be mostly sunny, but temperatures will not break the freezing mark. Winds will stay gusty throughout the day.
Barren River
Morning wind chills will be near zero. Despite sunshine, the area will remain locked in a deep freeze with no precipitation.
Louisville Metro
The city will see bright skies, but temperatures will stay in the 20s. No snow accumulation is expected in the metro area.
Lincoln Trail
Extremely cold morning wind chills will greet commuters. No snow is forecast, but clouds may linger early in the day.
Lake Cumberland
Clouds will be thickest during the morning hours. No snow accumulation is expected, though a few flurries could fall aloft.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will see persistent cloud cover and very cold winds. Highs will only reach the mid-20s with no snow.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will stay well below freezing all day. Wind chills will be in the single digits, and no snow accumulation is forecast.
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunny but very cold conditions will prevail. No snow is expected for the area despite the passing upper level energy.
Northeast Kentucky
Cloudy skies will dominate the day with no measurable snow. Temperatures will struggle to reach the mid-20s.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will be the coldest part of the state. Thick clouds will linger, but the air is too dry for measurable snow.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The ECMWF solution verifies, where the compact shortwave manages to overcome the dry slot, producing a high-ratio (15:1) snow burst of 1-3 inches statewide.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The dry arctic high wins decisively, resulting in clear skies west and a deck of non-precipitating 'virga-only' clouds east, with no measurable accumulation.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Great Moisture Mystery
The ECMWF depicts a quick-moving snow event with accumulations up to 3 inches, while the NAM, GFS, and GEM maintain a completely dry profile due to significant dewpoint depressions.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM's superior resolution of the low-level dry layer (850-700mb) is favored. With PWAT values below the 10th percentile, the ECMWF's QPF appears overdone and unrepresentative of the moisture-starved arctic environment.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.