kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Wed, Jan 14
Fri, Jan 16
Forecast For

Thursday, January 15

Updated Jan 14, 5:50 PM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 14, 10:57 AM -> Jan 14, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 14 at 10:57AM EST until January 15 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 10:59 AM -> Jan 14, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 10:59AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 2:24 PM -> Jan 15, 2:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 2:24PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 3:27 PM -> Jan 14, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 3:27PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 14, 5:03 PM -> Jan 15, 1:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 14 at 5:03PM EST until January 15 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 8:39 PM -> Jan 14, 9:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 8:39PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 8:54 PM -> Jan 15, 1:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 8:54PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 9:18 PM -> Jan 14, 10:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 9:18PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 9:58 PM -> Jan 15, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 9:58PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 10:36 PM -> Jan 14, 11:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 10:36PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 15, 12:16 AM -> Jan 15, 6:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 15 at 12:16AM EST until January 15 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 15, 12:38 AM -> Jan 15, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 15 at 12:38AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 15, 12:56 AM -> Jan 15, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 15 at 12:56AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 15, 1:04 AM -> Jan 15, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 15 at 1:04AM EST until January 15 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 15, 2:37 AM -> Jan 15, 7:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 15 at 2:37AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 15, 2:49 AM -> Jan 15, 8:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 15 at 2:49AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 15, 3:23 AM -> Jan 15, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 15 at 3:23AM EST until January 15 at 9:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 15, 5:59 AM -> Jan 15, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 15 at 5:59AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 15, 5:59 AM -> Jan 15, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 15 at 5:59AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 15, 6:43 AM -> Jan 15, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 15 at 6:43AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 15, 8:39 AM -> Jan 15, 9:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 15 at 8:39AM EST until January 15 at 9:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 15, 3:46 PM -> Jan 16, 5:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 15 at 3:46PM EST until January 16 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Confidence
45%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Thursday, January 15, 2026.

Temperature
±5.7°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±0.22"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±3.2mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
32° / 22°
Actual
39° / 21°
Error: -7°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 20 mph
Actual
8 / 28 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
27° / 19°
Actual
31° / 19°
Error: -4°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 23 mph
Actual
9 / 31 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
30° / 19°
Actual
36° / 19°
Error: -6°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 23 mph
Actual
9 / 35 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
29° / 18°
Actual
33° / 17°
Error: -4°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 25 mph
Actual
9 / 36 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
28° / 19°
Actual
27° / 17°
Error: 1°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 22 mph
Actual
10 / 37 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
27° / 17°
Actual
30° / 17°
Error: -3°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 23 mph
Actual
8 / 44 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
27° / 18°
Actual
35° / 16°
Error: -8°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 21 mph
Actual
7 / 36 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
25° / 19°
Actual
27° / 18°
Error: -2°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 28 mph
Actual
8 / 31 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
26° / 17°
Actual
30° / 15°
Error: -4°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 26 mph
Actual
12 / 32 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
26° / 18°
Actual
32° / 13°
Error: -6°F high, 5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0.67"
±0.67" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 23 mph
Actual
8 / 31 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
25° / 21°
Actual
32° / 19°
Error: -7°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 25 mph
Actual
9 / 37 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
23° / 18°
Actual
39° / 16°
Error: -16°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
1.94"
±1.94" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 21 mph
Actual
6 / 37 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Arctic High Pressure Battles Lone Snow Outlier

A powerful arctic airmass will maintain a firm grip on Kentucky, bringing sub-freezing temperatures and dangerous wind chills. While the ECMWF model suggests a quick-hitting snow event, the consensus of NAM, GFS, and GEM data indicates a moisture-starved environment where dry air at the surface will likely evaporate any falling flakes as virga.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

Significant disagreement between the high-performing ECMWF (Snow) and the GFS/NAM/GEM (Dry) regarding the ability of a shortwave to overcome a massive dry slot.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Brisk and Frigid
Sunny
32°/ 22°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Bitter Cold Sunshine
Sunny
27°/ 19°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Frigid and Clear
Sunny
30°/ 19°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Intense Cold in the Bowl
Sunny
29°/ 18°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Freezing Urban Air
Sunny
28°/ 19°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Biting Winds over the Ridge
Sunny
27°/ 17°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Cold and Cloudy Morning
Cloudy
27°/ 18°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Deep Freeze and Clouds
Cloudy
25°/ 19°

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Frigid Bluegrass Winds
Sunny
26°/ 17°

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Brisk and Cold
Sunny
26°/ 18°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Gray and Cold
Cloudy
25°/ 21°

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Frigid Mountain Air
Cloudy
23°/ 18°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The ECMWF solution verifies, where the compact shortwave manages to overcome the dry slot, producing a high-ratio (15:1) snow burst of 1-3 inches statewide.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The dry arctic high wins decisively, resulting in clear skies west and a deck of non-precipitating 'virga-only' clouds east, with no measurable accumulation.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Great Moisture Mystery

The ECMWF depicts a quick-moving snow event with accumulations up to 3 inches, while the NAM, GFS, and GEM maintain a completely dry profile due to significant dewpoint depressions.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
ECMWF
Why NAM Wins

The NAM's superior resolution of the low-level dry layer (850-700mb) is favored. With PWAT values below the 10th percentile, the ECMWF's QPF appears overdone and unrepresentative of the moisture-starved arctic environment.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILESOUTHWEST PENNYRILEBARREN RIVERLOUISVILLE METROLINCOLN TRAILLAKE CUMBERLANDNORTHERN KYBLUEGRASS COREBLUEGRASS FOOTHILLSNORTHEAST KYSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A classic arctic profile is in place with the entire column from the surface to 500mb remaining sub-freezing. Deep cold air is entrenched.

Thermal Boundary

The 0C surface isotherm is suppressed well south of the Kentucky-Tennessee border.

Diurnal Trend

Non-diurnal trends expected in the morning due to steady cold air advection, followed by a very weak sun-driven recovery.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

Post-frontal regime following an arctic front; secondary surge of cold air arriving on northwesterly winds.

Jet Stream Support

Kentucky is situated on the cold, subsident side of a 110kt zonal jet streak, which generally suppresses significant vertical motion.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough is moving through the region, but it is moisture-starved despite its decent vorticity signature.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Extremely dry low and mid-levels. Dewpoint depressions of 15-20F at the surface create a high risk of virga.

Precipitation Character

If any precipitation reaches the surface, it will be light, powdery snow or flurries, but most will remain aloft.

Flooding Context

No hydrologic risk; ground is frozen and atmosphere is dry.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

No warm nose present; entire column is well below freezing, supporting 100% snow as the P-type.

Crystal Habit

Temperature profiles favor the Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ), but the lack of moisture prevents crystal formation.

Road Impact

Roads will remain dry, though frost on bridge decks is possible due to efficient radiational cooling.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Crescent

11% Illumination
Moonrise
5:49 AM
Moonset
3:02 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
8:08 AM
Sunset
6:01 PM
Civil Dawn
7:39 AM
Civil Dusk
6:30 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:03 AM
Sunset
5:54 PM
Civil Dawn
7:35 AM
Civil Dusk
6:22 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:03 AM
Sunset
5:57 PM
Civil Dawn
7:34 AM
Civil Dusk
6:26 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:59 AM
Sunset
5:53 PM
Civil Dawn
7:30 AM
Civil Dusk
6:21 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:59 AM
Sunset
5:47 PM
Civil Dawn
7:30 AM
Civil Dusk
6:16 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:58 AM
Sunset
5:49 PM
Civil Dawn
7:29 AM
Civil Dusk
6:17 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:52 AM
Sunset
5:45 PM
Civil Dawn
7:23 AM
Civil Dusk
6:14 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:56 AM
Sunset
5:40 PM
Civil Dawn
7:27 AM
Civil Dusk
6:09 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:54 AM
Sunset
5:42 PM
Civil Dawn
7:25 AM
Civil Dusk
6:11 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:52 AM
Sunset
5:42 PM
Civil Dawn
7:23 AM
Civil Dusk
6:11 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:47 AM
Sunset
5:34 PM
Civil Dawn
7:18 AM
Civil Dusk
6:03 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:46 AM
Sunset
5:39 PM
Civil Dawn
7:18 AM
Civil Dusk
6:08 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.