Friday, January 16
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 15 at 3:46PM EST until January 16 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Snow showers are expected to cause negative travel impacts to the Friday morning commute hours. Minor snow accumulations less than one inch expected.
WHERE Portions of southern Indiana and north central Kentucky along and north of I-64.
WHEN From 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Friday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 15 at 8:35PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Light snow will move across the region during the morning commute. Although amounts will be light, with the cool temperatures a few slick spots cannot be ruled out.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 16 at 4:27AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Light snow will develop across the region during the morning commute. Although amounts will be light, with the cold ground temperatures a thin layer of snow on roads may result in slick spots. If traveling, be alert for rapidly changing conditions in short distances. Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 16 at 6:40AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
A slow moving cold front will bring a mix of rain and snow to eastern Kentucky later this evening that will gradually transition over to all snow for most places tonight. The best potential for light accumulations will be on the ridges and especially the elevated border region near Virginia as well as locations along and north of I-64 and some of the higher spots in Jackson County. The main slug of snow clears out late tonight, but additional snow showers and squalls will be possible on Saturday. Most places will see minimal accumulations from this return to winter, but some higher elevation locations could pick up a couple of inches of snow. Be prepared for slick spots on untreated roads tonight, particularly on bridges and overpasses. Please allow extra time to reach you destination tonight.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 16 at 8:12AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
A short period of light snow will occur this morning. Although accumulations will be light, cold ground will allow a thin layer of snow on some roads. If traveling, be alert for rapidly changing conditions in short distances. Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 16 at 12:51PM EST until January 17 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one to three inches.
WHERE Portions of northeast and northern Kentucky and central, south central, and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Kentucky, visit goky.ky.gov for the latest road information. In Ohio, visit ohgo.com for the latest road information.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 16 at 1:39PM EST until January 17 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to one inch in the valleys and up to 2 inches toward ridgetops.
WHERE Portions of east central, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will begin primarily as rain, or mix with rain at times, before changing to all snow before ending. Snow accumulations will favor elevated and grassy surfaces.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 16 at 1:39PM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to one inch in the valley bottoms, with 1 to 3 inches at higher elevations.
WHERE Harlan and Letcher Counties.
WHEN From 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Saturday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation may begin, or mix with, rain at times in the valleys before ending late tonight as all snow.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 16 at 1:42PM EST until January 17 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one to two inches.
WHERE Portions of east central, north central, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN From 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 16 at 1:48PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Periods of light snow will develop late this evening and continue past midnight. Accumulations of an inch or two along with cooling pavement temperatures will result in slippery roadways... particularly on untreated roads and overpasses. If traveling, allow for some extra time to reach your destination and be prepared for wintery driving conditions.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 16 at 1:58PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
A slow moving cold front will bring a mix of rain and snow to eastern Kentucky later this evening that will gradually transition over to all snow for most places tonight. The best potential for light accumulations will be on the ridges and especially the elevated border region near Virginia as well as locations along and north of I-64 and some of the higher spots in Jackson County. The main slug of snow clears out late tonight, but additional snow showers and squalls will be possible on Saturday. Most places will see minimal accumulations from this return to winter, but some higher elevation locations could pick up a couple of inches of snow. Be prepared for slick spots on untreated roads tonight, particularly on bridges and overpasses. Please allow extra time to reach you destination tonight.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 16 at 2:13PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
A cold front will swing across the region bringing increasing precipitation chances overnight into Saturday morning. Precipitation is expected to be a rain and snow mix at onset in some locations, but will gradually transition over to all snow for most places. Up to an inch or so is expected across the lowlands, while one to two inches is generally expected across the higher elevations of southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia. Be prepared for slick spots on untreated roads tonight into Saturday morning, particularly on bridges and overpasses. Please allow extra time to reach your destination.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 16 at 4:55PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
A mix of rain and snow late this afternoon and evening will become light snow showers late tonight. A light coating of snow is possible by Saturday morning. Residents along the I-65 corridor near Louisville and Elizabethtown may see accumulations up to an inch. By late tonight, this snow could cause some slick spots on area roadways, especially on bridges and overpasses. Take care when venturing out on area roadways later tonight and Saturday morning.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Friday, January 16, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Frigid Morning with Developing Afternoon Gusts
Kentucky will see a day of sharp transitions as high pressure departs the region. A frigid start with morning lows in the teens and twenties will give way to a breezy and cloudier afternoon. While cloud cover increases from the west, the state is expected to remain dry through midnight, with temperatures rebounding into the upper 30s and 40s.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the cold start and gusty winds; lower confidence in the arrival time of clouds and the potential for outlier precipitation in the far Northeast.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect increasing clouds through the morning with very breezy conditions. Winds will gust up to 35 mph from the south, making the high of 45 feel cooler.
Northwest Pennyrile
Clouds will cover the region for most of the day. Gusty winds will make the 41-degree high feel like the 30s.
Southwest Pennyrile
A cold start in the low 20s will lead to a cloudy but milder afternoon with temperatures reaching 45 degrees.
Barren River
Wind gusts up to 38 mph are expected today. Despite the clouds, temperatures will reach a pleasant 46 degrees.
Louisville Metro
Expect a cold, gray day with winds gusting to 35 mph. No precipitation is expected through the evening.
Lincoln Trail
Strong wind gusts will be the main story today, reaching up to 39 mph. It will be dry but gray.
Lake Cumberland
The day starts with some sun, but clouds will move in quickly. Gusty winds will make for a choppy lake.
Northern Kentucky
It will be a cold day with highs struggling to reach 37 degrees. Clouds will increase throughout the afternoon.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a cold start followed by a gray and windy afternoon. Wind gusts could reach 37 mph in Lexington.
Bluegrass Foothills
Clouds will fill in by afternoon with southerly winds gusting up to 36 mph, especially near the hills.
Northeast Kentucky
Valleys will stay cold longer this morning with sunshine giving way to clouds by late afternoon.
Southeast Kentucky
A clear, cold morning will lead into a windy afternoon. Ridges could see gusts up to 38 mph.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The Euro scenario verifies: moisture overcomes the dry boundary layer faster than expected, resulting in a light wintry mix in the Northeast valleys and light rain showers elsewhere by evening.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Dry air maintains total dominance; clouds remain high and thin, allowing for more sunshine and potentially slightly higher afternoon temperatures but colder night lows.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Great Moisture Stand-off
The ECMWF (Euro) is a significant outlier, forecasting light precipitation across the state by afternoon and evening. The GFS, NAM, and GEM all maintain a dry forecast, pointing to significant dew point depressions and a moisture-starved boundary layer.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM's superior resolution of the dry boundary layer and its history of handling initial moisture return against a strong departing high makes its dry solution more credible for the first 24 hours.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.