Wednesday, January 14
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 14 at 3:40AM EST until January 15 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulation of up to 2 inches, except localized amounts of 3 to 7 inches possible on Big Black Mountain.
WHERE Harlan, Letcher, and Pike Counties.
WHEN From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute over Big Black Mountain and the Thursday morning commute across the entire advisory area. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will develop and switch to snow over Big Black Mountain late this afternoon. Snow levels will fall to the valley level between 6 and 9 PM this evening. Snow showers, some briefly heavy, will then persist through tonight and at least most of Thursday morning.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 4:11AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Light rain will switch over to snow showers from northwest to southeast later today as temperatures tumble below freezing behind a strong cold front. The transition to snow showers is expected to occur around 5 PM north of I-64 to around 8 PM in the deeper valleys of the Big Sandy Basin and near the Tennessee border. The snow showers will be most widespread through the first half of tonight, before slowly diminishing Thursday morning. A few brief snow squalls are also possible, leading to sudden visibility reductions and snow-covered roadways. Due to the scattered nature of the snow showers and squalls, weather conditions could vary dramatically over short distances. Snow accumulations are forecast to range from a few tenths to around 1 inch for most locations. However, locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out at elevations above 1,500 feet and also in areas impacted by more persistent snow shower and squall activity. Additionally, temperatures will drop into the teens to near 20 degrees tonight. Thus any remaining liquid water on untreated roadways will tend to freeze overnight, potentially leading to slippery travel in some places. Those with travel plans this evening into Thursday morning should be prepared for slippery spots in addition to sudden reductions in visibility and snow-covered roadway conditions when encountering heavier snow showers and squalls.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 4:20AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Light rain will switch over to snow showers and squalls later today as temperatures tumble below freezing behind a strong cold front. The snow showers will be most widespread through the first half of tonight, before slowly diminishing Thursday. A few brief snow squalls are also possible, leading to sudden visibility reductions and snow-covered roadways. Due to the scattered nature of the snow squalls, weather conditions could vary dramatically over short distances. Snow accumulations up to 2 inches are forecast for most locations. However, locally higher amounts of 3 to 7 inches are expected on Big Black Mountain. Those with travel plans this evening into Thursday morning should be prepared for slippery travel in addition to sudden reductions in visibility and snow-covered roadway conditions when encountering heavier snow showers and squalls.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 4:21AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Light rain will switch over to snow showers from northwest to southeast later today as temperatures tumble below freezing behind a strong cold front. The transition to snow showers is expected to occur around 5 PM north of I-64 to around 8 PM in the deeper valleys of the Big Sandy Basin and near the Tennessee border. The snow showers will be most widespread through the first half of tonight, before slowly diminishing Thursday morning. A few brief snow squalls are also possible, leading to sudden visibility reductions and snow-covered roadways. Due to the scattered nature of the snow showers and squalls, weather conditions could vary dramatically over short distances. Snow accumulations are forecast to range from a few tenths to around 1 inch for most locations. However, locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out at elevations above 1,500 feet and also in areas impacted by more persistent snow shower and squall activity. Additionally, temperatures will drop into the teens to near 20 degrees tonight. Thus any remaining liquid water on untreated roadways will tend to freeze overnight, potentially leading to slippery travel in some places. Those with travel plans this evening into Thursday morning should be prepared for slippery spots in addition to sudden reductions in visibility and snow-covered roadway conditions when encountering heavier snow showers and squalls.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 14 at 10:57AM EST until January 15 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulation of up to 2 inches, except localized amounts of 3 to 7 inches possible on Big Black Mountain.
WHERE Harlan, Letcher, and Pike Counties.
WHEN From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute over Big Black Mountain and the Thursday morning commute across the entire advisory area.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 10:59AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Light rain will switch over to snow showers from northwest to southeast later today as temperatures tumble below freezing behind a strong cold front. The transition to snow showers is expected to occur around 5 PM north of I-64 to around 8 PM in the deeper valleys of the Big Sandy Basin and near the Tennessee border. The snow showers will be most widespread through the first half of tonight, before slowly diminishing Thursday morning. A few brief snow squalls are also possible, leading to sudden visibility reductions and snow-covered roadways. Due to the scattered nature of the snow showers and squalls, weather conditions could vary dramatically over short distances. Snow accumulations are forecast to range from a few tenths to around 1 inch for most locations. However, locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out at elevations above 1,500 feet and also in areas impacted by more persistent snow shower and squall activity. Additionally, temperatures will drop into the teens to near 20 degrees tonight. Thus any remaining liquid water on untreated roadways will tend to freeze overnight, potentially leading to slippery travel in some places. Those with travel plans this evening into Thursday morning should be prepared for slippery spots in addition to sudden reductions in visibility and snow-covered roadway conditions when encountering heavier snow showers and squalls.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 2:24PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
Light rain will change to snow showers later this evening and tonight, with snow showers expected area wide by 10 PM this evening. Generally light accumulations are anticipated, however, with the falling temperatures, slick conditions will be possible on untreated roadways through Thursday. In addition, heavier bands of snow, and gusty winds at times could produce sudden visibility reductions. Those traveling this evening and overnight should be prepared for the potential of reduced visibility and slick conditions in spots. These conditions may persist into the Thursday morning commute. Please allow extra time to reach your destination if traveling.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 3:27PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
Some isolated to scattered snow showers are possible across the area through the rest of this afternoon and early evening. While accumulations are expected to be mainly on elevated or grassy surfaces, there could be some rapid changes in conditions with any snow shower. Visibility may be reduced to less than half a mile in snow showers. In addition to the chance for snow showers, gusty northwest winds of 30-40 mph are expected through this evening.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 3:35PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
HAZARDS A band of heavy snow accompanied by winds of up to 30 MPH which can rapidly reduce visibility to less than one mile. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 334 PM EST, a band of heavy snow was near Scottsburg moving southeast at 40 MPH. THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE NEAR... Prospect around 400 PM EST. Worthington Hills and Coldstream around 405 PM EST. Anchorage around 410 PM EST. SAFETY INFO... Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this band of heavy snow. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads may lead to accidents.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 4:22PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
HAZARDS A band of heavy snow accompanied by winds of up to 30 MPH which can rapidly reduce visibility to less than a quarter of a mile. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 421 PM EST, a band of heavy snow was along a line extending from near Owenton to 7 miles east of Middletown and moving southeast at 35 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... Lexington, Georgetown, Frankfort, Nicholasville, Jeffersontown, Shelbyville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Paris, and Harrodsburg. SAFETY INFO... Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued January 14 at 5:03PM EST until January 15 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Much colder air will arrive and snow showers are expected, but the snow showers will gradually taper off overnight and on Saturday. Most locations should have snow accumulations of less than an inch. However, localized amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, especially at elevations above 2500 feet.
WHERE The Winter Weather Advisory is for Harlan, Letcher, and Pike counties in Kentucky.
WHEN The Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 10 AM EST Thursday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 6:09PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
HAZARDS A band of briefly heavy snow accompanied by winds of up to 30 MPH and visibility less than a half mile will affect the area. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 605 PM EST, a narrow band of heavy snow was along a line extending from near Triplett to near Harris Ferry and moving southeast at 35 MPH. SAFETY INFO... Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this area of snow. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads may lead to accidents.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Wednesday, January 14, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Powerful Arctic Blast Sweeps Kentucky with Sharp Temp Drop
A potent, largely moisture-starved arctic cold front will race across the Commonwealth today. The primary story is a dramatic, non-diurnal temperature crash and gusty winds, as morning mildness is replaced by bitter cold by evening. While a stray flurry is possible in the Bluegrass, significant precipitation is not expected.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the temperature crash and wind magnitude. Significant penalty applied due to the ECMWF outlier showing measurable snow versus the dry solutions of other major models.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Temperatures will reach near 50 degrees this morning before a powerful cold front moves through. Expect skies to stay mostly cloudy with no rain, though winds will gust over 30 mph as it turns much colder tonight.
Northwest Pennyrile
Owensboro and Henderson will see temperatures crash from 50 degrees into the 20s by sunset. Wind gusts of 30 mph will make it feel like the teens tonight.
Southwest Pennyrile
A very windy day is ahead for Hopkinsville. Morning mildness will quickly evaporate as arctic air arrives this afternoon. No precipitation is expected, but the wind will be biting.
Barren River
Bowling Green will stay dry but cloudy as the cold front arrives late this afternoon. Expect temperatures to fall into the 20s overnight with wind chills in the teens.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see a high near 50 degrees around lunch, falling into the 20s by the evening commute. The city will stay dry, but wind gusts up to 34 mph are possible.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a sharp drop in temperature for Elizabethtown and Bardstown this afternoon. Winds will make it feel much colder, reaching the teens by late tonight.
Lake Cumberland
The Lake Cumberland area will see a windy afternoon with temperatures falling into the 20s after dark. No significant rain or snow is expected.
Northern Kentucky
Covington and the airport will see a rapid temperature drop from the 40s to the 20s this evening. Brisk winds will cause wind chills to drop into the mid-teens.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will experience the strongest winds in the state today, with gusts reaching 40-42 mph. Expect temperatures to fall rapidly into the 20s this evening under cloudy skies.
Bluegrass Foothills
Richmond and Danville will see clouds all day with a noticeable cold surge this evening. Winds will be gusty, reaching 35 mph at times.
Northeast Kentucky
Ashland will stay relatively mild for most of the day before the arctic front arrives tonight. Clouds will increase, but the region will remain dry.
Southeast Kentucky
Hazard and Pikeville will enjoy mild weather for much of Wednesday before the front hits tonight. Expect a breezy evening with temperatures dropping to the freezing mark by morning.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the ECMWF's outlier moisture profile verifies, a brief 2-3 hour window of post-frontal snow could produce a quick coating to half an inch of snow, leading to a flash freeze on wet roads.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the front slows or the dry slot is even more aggressive, temperatures may stay 3-5 degrees warmer through the evening commute with fewer clouds.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Lexington Gust War
The NAM suggests localized pressure gradient tightening will produce gusts over 40 mph in the Inner Bluegrass, while global models cap gusts at 30-35 mph.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically resolves the mechanical mixing of higher momentum air to the surface better in post-frontal environments over the Kentucky Bluegrass plateau.
The Moisture Desert Debate
The ECMWF is a significant outlier, forecasting a saturated column and up to 0.5 inches of snow, while the GFS, NAM, and GEM show a bone-dry sub-cloud layer (PWATs < 0.20 inches).
Why BLEND Wins
The NAM, GFS, and GEM show remarkable consistency in the dry-air logic trace. The ECMWF moisture appears to be an over-estimation of anafrontal precipitation given the lack of Gulf moisture return.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.