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Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Tue, Jan 13
Thu, Jan 15
Forecast For

Wednesday, January 14

Updated Jan 13, 5:43 PM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 14, 3:40 AM -> Jan 14, 11:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 14 at 3:40AM EST until January 15 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 4:11 AM -> Jan 14, 11:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 4:11AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 4:20 AM -> Jan 14, 5:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 4:20AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 4:21 AM -> Jan 14, 11:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 4:21AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 14, 10:57 AM -> Jan 14, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 14 at 10:57AM EST until January 15 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 10:59 AM -> Jan 14, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 10:59AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 2:24 PM -> Jan 15, 2:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 2:24PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 3:27 PM -> Jan 14, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 3:27PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 3:35 PM -> Jan 14, 4:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 3:35PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 4:22 PM -> Jan 14, 5:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 4:22PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Jan 14, 5:03 PM -> Jan 15, 1:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 14 at 5:03PM EST until January 15 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 14, 6:09 PM -> Jan 14, 7:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 14 at 6:09PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
75%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Wednesday, January 14, 2026.

Temperature
±8.5°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±13.46"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±6.2mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
51° / 27°
Actual
58° / 37°
Error: -7°F high, -10°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
5.68"
±5.68" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
18 / 33 mph
Actual
11 / 34 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
51° / 24°
Actual
59° / 29°
Error: -8°F high, -5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
14.26"
±14.26" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
19 / 31 mph
Actual
11 / 40 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
48° / 26°
Actual
59° / 31°
Error: -11°F high, -5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
19.96"
±19.96" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
18 / 35 mph
Actual
11 / 37 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
46° / 25°
Actual
57° / 33°
Error: -11°F high, -8°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
11.23"
±11.23" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
17 / 32 mph
Actual
10 / 38 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
50° / 25°
Actual
55° / 26°
Error: -5°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
4.55"
±4.55" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
16 / 34 mph
Actual
11 / 41 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
46° / 24°
Actual
57° / 28°
Error: -11°F high, -4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
27.54"
±27.54" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
16 / 32 mph
Actual
9 / 40 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
44° / 27°
Actual
56° / 32°
Error: -12°F high, -5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
20.3"
±20.3" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 32 mph
Actual
8 / 40 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
47° / 24°
Actual
53° / 26°
Error: -6°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
4.22"
±4.22" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 32 mph
Actual
7 / 40 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
46° / 23°
Actual
53° / 30°
Error: -7°F high, -7°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
11.71"
±11.71" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
18 / 42 mph
Actual
12 / 43 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
45° / 25°
Actual
54° / 30°
Error: -9°F high, -5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
3.93"
±3.93" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 35 mph
Actual
10 / 34 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
48° / 27°
Actual
56° / 32°
Error: -8°F high, -5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
20.37"
±20.37" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 28 mph
Actual
7 / 33 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
47° / 29°
Actual
54° / 34°
Error: -7°F high, -5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
17.81"
±17.81" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 28 mph
Actual
5 / 32 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Powerful Arctic Blast Sweeps Kentucky with Sharp Temp Drop

A potent, largely moisture-starved arctic cold front will race across the Commonwealth today. The primary story is a dramatic, non-diurnal temperature crash and gusty winds, as morning mildness is replaced by bitter cold by evening. While a stray flurry is possible in the Bluegrass, significant precipitation is not expected.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in the temperature crash and wind magnitude. Significant penalty applied due to the ECMWF outlier showing measurable snow versus the dry solutions of other major models.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Morning Highs, Arctic Evening
Cloudy
51°/ 27°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Windy and Sharply Colder
Cloudy
51°/ 24°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Blustery with Dropping Temps
Cloudy
48°/ 26°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Dry Front Brings Bitter Wind
Cloudy
46°/ 25°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Afternoon Metro Temp Crash
Cloudy
50°/ 25°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Cold Winds Off the Escarpment
Cloudy
46°/ 24°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Windy and Colder by Evening
Cloudy
44°/ 27°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Northern KY Temp Crash
Cloudy
47°/ 24°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Lexington Facing High Winds
Cloudy
46°/ 23°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Breezy and Turning Cold
Cloudy
45°/ 25°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Late Cold Arrival for Valleys
Cloudy
48°/ 27°

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Mild Day, Cold Night
Cloudy
47°/ 29°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the ECMWF's outlier moisture profile verifies, a brief 2-3 hour window of post-frontal snow could produce a quick coating to half an inch of snow, leading to a flash freeze on wet roads.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the front slows or the dry slot is even more aggressive, temperatures may stay 3-5 degrees warmer through the evening commute with fewer clouds.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Lexington Gust War

The NAM suggests localized pressure gradient tightening will produce gusts over 40 mph in the Inner Bluegrass, while global models cap gusts at 30-35 mph.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
GEM
Why NAM Wins

The NAM typically resolves the mechanical mixing of higher momentum air to the surface better in post-frontal environments over the Kentucky Bluegrass plateau.

Affected Regions
BLUEGRASS COREBLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS

The Moisture Desert Debate

The ECMWF is a significant outlier, forecasting a saturated column and up to 0.5 inches of snow, while the GFS, NAM, and GEM show a bone-dry sub-cloud layer (PWATs < 0.20 inches).

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

The NAM, GFS, and GEM show remarkable consistency in the dry-air logic trace. The ECMWF moisture appears to be an over-estimation of anafrontal precipitation given the lack of Gulf moisture return.

Affected Regions
BLUEGRASS CORENORTHERN KYNORTHEAST KYSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A classic non-diurnal curve. Pre-frontal soundings show a well-mixed boundary layer, scoured out by a shallow but intense arctic inversion post-front.

Thermal Boundary

Freezing line entering the Purchase by 10 AM, crossing I-65 by 2 PM, and clearing the Coalfields by 10 PM.

Diurnal Trend

Steady fall from midday highs. Most locations will see their high for the day before noon.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

Sharp wind shift from 220 to 310 degrees with a pressure jump of 4-6mb per 3 hours.

Jet Stream Support

Right Entrance Region divergence provides lift, but it is acting on a parched atmosphere.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough with a vorticity lobe of 0.00052 provides strong mechanical forcing.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Significant dry air below 700mb. High risk of virga appearing on radar with no surface impact.

Precipitation Character

Mostly dry. Isolated flurries are possible where low-level moisture manages to linger in the dendritic growth zone.

Flooding Context

Zero risk. Liquid equivalents are trace to 0.00 inches.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Crescent

17% Illumination
Moonrise
4:52 AM
Moonset
2:16 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
8:08 AM
Sunset
6:00 PM
Civil Dawn
7:39 AM
Civil Dusk
6:29 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:04 AM
Sunset
5:53 PM
Civil Dawn
7:35 AM
Civil Dusk
6:21 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:03 AM
Sunset
5:56 PM
Civil Dawn
7:35 AM
Civil Dusk
6:25 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:59 AM
Sunset
5:52 PM
Civil Dawn
7:31 AM
Civil Dusk
6:20 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:59 AM
Sunset
5:46 PM
Civil Dawn
7:31 AM
Civil Dusk
6:15 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:58 AM
Sunset
5:48 PM
Civil Dawn
7:30 AM
Civil Dusk
6:16 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:52 AM
Sunset
5:44 PM
Civil Dawn
7:23 AM
Civil Dusk
6:13 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:57 AM
Sunset
5:39 PM
Civil Dawn
7:27 AM
Civil Dusk
6:08 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:54 AM
Sunset
5:41 PM
Civil Dawn
7:25 AM
Civil Dusk
6:10 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:52 AM
Sunset
5:41 PM
Civil Dawn
7:24 AM
Civil Dusk
6:10 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:48 AM
Sunset
5:33 PM
Civil Dawn
7:19 AM
Civil Dusk
6:02 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:47 AM
Sunset
5:38 PM
Civil Dawn
7:18 AM
Civil Dusk
6:07 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.