Tuesday, January 13
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 13 at 6:27AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
Expect gusty southwest to northeast winds from late morning through the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Sustained winds between 15 and 20 mph will occasionally gust between 25 and 35 mph. A few gusts may peak around 40 mph especially in the Bluegrass region of east central Kentucky. Use caution if traveling in a high profile vehicle, and watch for fallen limbs. Winds will subside around sunset, but may remain a bit gusty until around Midnight.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Tuesday, January 13, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Windy and Warmer: A Strong Rebound Under Sunny Skies
Kentucky will experience a significant warming trend today as high pressure shifts east and a strong southerly wind develops. Despite a cold start, temperatures will climb into the 50s for most of the state. It will be a very windy day, but precipitation is not expected.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement between GFS, NAM, and GEM on the dry and warm solution; however, the extreme outlier status of the ECMWF creates a significant statistical disagreement penalty.
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Purchase Area
Expect a bright and sunny day with unseasonably warm temperatures reaching the upper 50s. The main story will be the wind, with gusts occasionally reaching 38 mph throughout the afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
A very pleasant but windy day is expected for Owensboro and Henderson. Highs will reach the mid-50s under sunny skies.
Southwest Pennyrile
Temperatures will climb over 20 degrees from their morning lows, peaking in the mid-50s. Skies will be clear, but southerly winds will be noticeably gusty.
Barren River
After a chilly start, temperatures in Bowling Green will reach the mid-50s. Wind gusts of 35 mph will make it feel slightly cooler during the afternoon.
Louisville Metro
A very windy day is on tap for Louisville. Highs will hit the low 50s under sunny skies. Gusts in the urban center could reach 37 mph, potentially blowing around loose outdoor objects.
Lincoln Trail
Sunny skies will prevail with temperatures reaching 52 degrees. Winds along the Muldraugh Escarpment will be particularly strong, with gusts near 38 mph.
Lake Cumberland
A lovely day is expected for the lake area with highs in the low 50s and plenty of sun. Winds will be gusty but slightly lower than the western part of the state.
Northern Kentucky
A sunny day will give way to increasing clouds tonight. It will be blustery with highs in the upper 40s. Wind gusts of 38 mph will make it feel much colder.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a very breezy day in Lexington with sustained winds around 20 mph. Highs will reach 50 degrees, but wind gusts as high as 41 mph are possible.
Bluegrass Foothills
It will be a very windy day in the Richmond and Berea areas. Highs will reach the low 50s. Wind gusts could reach 43 mph at times, particularly in higher terrain.
Northeast Kentucky
After a frosty start, Ashland and Morehead will reach the low 50s under sunny skies. Breezy conditions will develop by midday.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will see a dry day with highs in the low 50s. It will be breezy on the peaks, but valleys will remain relatively sheltered from the strongest winds.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If mid-level moisture returns faster than modeled, a few patches of virga or light sprinkles could reach the ground in the Purchase region late this evening, though no accumulation would occur.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the boundary layer mixes more deeply than forecast, wind gusts could exceed 45 mph in the Bluegrass and Foothills regions, potentially leading to localized minor tree or limb damage.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Phantom Blizzard of January
The ECMWF is an extreme outlier, predicting a historic 10-20 inch snowstorm with 7-10 inches of liquid equivalent. The GFS, NAM, and GEM all show a dry, warm day with highs in the 50s.
Why BLEND Wins
The ECMWF's liquid totals are non-physical and climatologically impossible for this setup (7 inches of liquid in 6 hours). The synoptic consensus among all other global and mesoscale models supports a dry, windy, warm sector environment.
Boundary Layer Momentum Transfer
Models disagree on how much of the 850mb LLJ will mix down to the surface. The NAM is more aggressive with 40mph+ gusts, while the GEM is more conservative.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM tends to resolve sharp pressure gradients and momentum transfer better in high-wind WAA setups within the 24-hour window.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.