Monday, January 12
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Monday, January 12, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dry and Chilly with a Breezy Afternoon Transition
High pressure will shift eastward today, transitioning Kentucky from a frigid start to a sunny, breezy afternoon with temperatures recovering into the 40s.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement among GFS, NAM, and GEM on a dry airmass and high-pressure dominance; however, the score is penalized due to the extreme synoptic disagreement presented by an anomalous and erroneous ECMWF solution.
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Purchase Area
The Purchase area will enjoy the warmest temperatures in the state today, with plenty of sunshine boosting highs into the upper 40s. A light breeze from the southwest will develop by the afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect clear blue skies all day. After a very cold start in the low 20s, afternoon highs will reach the mid-40s with a noticeable breeze.
Southwest Pennyrile
A beautiful but crisp winter day with temperatures climbing from the low 20s into the mid-40s by the afternoon.
Barren River
A frigid morning will give way to a bright and sunny afternoon. No precipitation is expected, and winds will remain light to moderate.
Louisville Metro
A sunny day for the Metro with highs in the mid-40s. Winds will increase through the afternoon, becoming gusty at times.
Lincoln Trail
Bundle up for a cold morning, but enjoy full sunshine through the day. Winds will pick up during the late afternoon.
Lake Cumberland
Despite outlier reports of snow, the forecast is dry and sunny. Afternoon temperatures will reach the low 40s.
Northern Kentucky
Sunshine will prevail, but a biting wind from the west will make it feel colder. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible by evening.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see clear skies and a cold start. Winds will increase significantly by late afternoon, with gusts reaching 30 mph.
Bluegrass Foothills
Full sunshine will help boost temperatures to the low 40s after a frigid morning in the teens and 20s.
Northeast Kentucky
Northeast Kentucky will stay cool with highs near 40 degrees. Sunny skies will prevail all day with light winds.
Southeast Kentucky
A beautiful, sunny winter day for the coalfields. No winter weather is expected despite erroneous model reports.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
A weak northern-stream clipper tracks slightly further south, introducing scattered mid-level cloudiness and a few non-accumulating flurries along the Ohio River.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Stronger-than-forecast warm air advection and full solar insolation allow temperatures to over-perform, pushing highs into the low 50s across Western Kentucky.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Ghost Blizzard of the East
A massive divergence in precipitation existence occurs as the ECMWF depicts a historic 36-48 inch snow event for Central and Eastern Kentucky, while the NAM, GFS, and GEM show a completely dry forecast.
Why NONE Wins
The ECMWF output shows physically impossible liquid-equivalent values exceeding 1000 inches in some grids, indicating a severe convective feedback error. Synoptic continuity and dry-air entrainment in all other models confirm a high-pressure regime is the only viable outcome.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.