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Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Sat, Jan 10
Mon, Jan 12
Forecast For

Sunday, January 11

Updated Jan 10, 10:24 AM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Special Weather Statement

Jan 10, 1:39 PM -> Jan 11, 12:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 10 at 1:39PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 10, 4:10 PM -> Jan 11, 12:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 10 at 4:10PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 10, 4:15 PM -> Jan 11, 12:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 10 at 4:15PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 10, 9:18 PM -> Jan 11, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 10 at 9:18PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 10, 11:24 PM -> Jan 11, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 10 at 11:24PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 10, 11:24 PM -> Jan 11, 5:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 10 at 11:24PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 11, 3:59 AM -> Jan 11, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 11 at 3:59AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 11, 5:04 AM -> Jan 11, 1:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 11 at 5:04AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 11, 7:25 AM -> Jan 11, 8:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 11 at 7:25AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 11, 7:33 AM -> Jan 11, 4:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 11 at 7:33AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Jan 11, 7:38 AM -> Jan 11, 8:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 11 at 7:38AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 11, 7:55 AM -> Jan 11, 8:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 11 at 7:55AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 11, 7:58 AM -> Jan 11, 8:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 11 at 7:58AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 11, 8:25 AM -> Jan 11, 9:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 11 at 8:25AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 11, 9:40 AM -> Jan 11, 2:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 11 at 9:40AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 11, 10:22 AM -> Jan 11, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 11 at 10:22AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 11, 10:24 AM -> Jan 11, 11:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 11 at 10:24AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 11, 10:59 AM -> Jan 11, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 11 at 10:59AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 11, 12:05 PM -> Jan 11, 12:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 11 at 12:05PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
75%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Sunday, January 11, 2026.

Temperature
±8.4°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±0.75"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±5.9mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
39° / 27°
Actual
42° / 30°
Error: -3°F high, -3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 30 mph
Actual
7 / 26 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
34° / 24°
Actual
40° / 28°
Error: -6°F high, -4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 31 mph
Actual
10 / 35 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
37° / 25°
Actual
42° / 29°
Error: -5°F high, -4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 30 mph
Actual
9 / 36 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
35° / 25°
Actual
42° / 29°
Error: -7°F high, -4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
16 / 32 mph
Actual
10 / 33 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
34° / 25°
Actual
40° / 25°
Error: -6°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 31 mph
Actual
11 / 35 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
33° / 23°
Actual
42° / 27°
Error: -9°F high, -4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
16 / 32 mph
Actual
9 / 36 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
34° / 24°
Actual
46° / 28°
Error: -12°F high, -4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 31 mph
Actual
8 / 31 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
31° / 24°
Actual
39° / 25°
Error: -8°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 31 mph
Actual
8 / 38 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
33° / 23°
Actual
44° / 25°
Error: -11°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0.15"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
18 / 34 mph
Actual
12 / 43 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
33° / 23°
Actual
44° / 26°
Error: -11°F high, -3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0.33"
±0.33" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
16 / 31 mph
Actual
9 / 27 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
36° / 26°
Actual
46° / 26°
Error: -10°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
1.8"
±1.8" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 30 mph
Actual
7 / 26 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
38° / 24°
Actual
51° / 25°
Error: -13°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
6.73"
±6.73" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 30 mph
Actual
5 / 35 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Colder and Blustery Sunday Following Dry Frontal Passage

A potent but moisture-starved cold front will sweep across Kentucky on Sunday. The primary story will be a sharp drop in temperatures through the morning hours and gusty northwest winds that will drive wind chills into the teens and twenties statewide. No measurable precipitation is expected as the atmosphere remains critically dry.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in the arrival of cold air and gusty winds; however, the extreme outlier status of the ECMWF moisture profile introduces a significant, albeit unlikely, uncertainty factor.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Sunny and Brisk with Gusty Winds
Sunny
39°/ 27°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Biting Winds and Freezing Temperatures
Sunny
34°/ 24°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Bright Skies and Sharp Winds
Sunny
37°/ 25°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Breezy and Cold for Bowling Green
Sunny
35°/ 25°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Morning Clouds Giving Way to Biting Cold
Cloudy
34°/ 25°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Gusty and Cold Across the Escarpment
Sunny
33°/ 23°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Brisk and Clear Near Somerset
Sunny
34°/ 24°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Coldest Day of the Season So Far
Cloudy
31°/ 24°

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
High Winds and Frigid Chills in Lexington
Sunny
33°/ 23°

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Clearing Skies and Sharp Cold Air
Sunny
33°/ 23°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Clouds Linger with Blustery Winds
Cloudy
36°/ 26°

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Warm Start, Cold Finish for the Mountains
Cloudy
38°/ 24°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

In the highly unlikely event that the moisture-rich ECMWF solution verifies, an arctic front would phase with southern stream moisture to produce a historic blizzard. However, this is currently viewed as a significant model outlier with little physical support in the mesoscale soundings.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the trailing shortwave is weaker than expected, the pressure gradient may slacken earlier in the afternoon, allowing for slightly warmer temperatures and less wind impact in Western Kentucky.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Great Moisture Disconnect

The ECMWF is forecasting a historic 3-4 foot blizzard across the state, while the GFS, NAM, and GEM show 0.00 inches of precipitation. This is a rare, fundamental disagreement on the presence of a tropical moisture plume.

ECMWF
VS
GFS
VS
NAM
Why NONE Wins

I am adjudicating in favor of the GFS/NAM/GEM consensus. Soundings show dewpoint depressions of 20+ degrees throughout the column, making the ECMWF moisture signal physically inconsistent with the surrounding synoptic environment.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILESOUTHWEST PENNYRILEBARREN RIVERLOUISVILLE METROLINCOLN TRAILLAKE CUMBERLANDNORTHERN KYBLUEGRASS COREBLUEGRASS FOOTHILLSNORTHEAST KYSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A standard post-frontal cold air mass is established. Soundings show a well-mixed boundary layer with adiabatic lapse rates up to 850mb, where a subsidence inversion is expected to develop by late afternoon.

Thermal Boundary

The cold front will enter Northwest Kentucky around 06Z and exit the Southeast Coalfields by 18Z.

Diurnal Trend

Non-diurnal trends will be prevalent. Temperatures will likely peak early in the morning or remain steady before falling through the afternoon as CAA offsets limited solar heating.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

The front is well-defined by a 40-60 degree wind shift from the southwest to the northwest and a sudden drop in surface dewpoints.

Jet Stream Support

Kentucky sits in the right-entrance region of a departing jet streak, providing broad subsidence that further suppresses precipitation chances.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough with high absolute vorticity is pivoting through the Ohio Valley, but its lift is wasted on a dry column.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is critically unsaturated. Dewpoint depressions exceed 15-20F at the surface and throughout the mid-levels, making virga the only remote precip risk.

Precipitation Character

None. Dry frontal passage.

Flooding Context

Zero hydrologic concerns as no liquid or frozen accumulation is expected.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

While the entire column is below freezing in many areas, the lack of moisture prevents any crystal habit development.

Crystal Habit

None.

Road Impact

Roads will remain dry. The only concern is high crosswinds for high-profile vehicles.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Last Quarter

42% Illumination
Moonrise
1:51 AM
Moonset
12:39 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
8:09 AM
Sunset
5:57 PM
Civil Dawn
7:40 AM
Civil Dusk
6:26 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:04 AM
Sunset
5:50 PM
Civil Dawn
7:35 AM
Civil Dusk
6:18 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:04 AM
Sunset
5:53 PM
Civil Dawn
7:35 AM
Civil Dusk
6:22 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
8:00 AM
Sunset
5:49 PM
Civil Dawn
7:31 AM
Civil Dusk
6:18 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
8:00 AM
Sunset
5:43 PM
Civil Dawn
7:31 AM
Civil Dusk
6:12 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:59 AM
Sunset
5:45 PM
Civil Dawn
7:30 AM
Civil Dusk
6:14 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:53 AM
Sunset
5:41 PM
Civil Dawn
7:24 AM
Civil Dusk
6:10 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:57 AM
Sunset
5:36 PM
Civil Dawn
7:28 AM
Civil Dusk
6:05 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:55 AM
Sunset
5:38 PM
Civil Dawn
7:26 AM
Civil Dusk
6:07 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:53 AM
Sunset
5:38 PM
Civil Dawn
7:24 AM
Civil Dusk
6:07 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:48 AM
Sunset
5:30 PM
Civil Dawn
7:19 AM
Civil Dusk
5:59 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:47 AM
Sunset
5:35 PM
Civil Dawn
7:19 AM
Civil Dusk
6:04 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.