Saturday, January 10
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 10 at 1:39PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Light snow is expected across the area early Sunday morning. Minor snow accumulations are possible. Temperatures around freezing will support the development of slick spots, especially on elevated and untreated surfaces. Additional snow showers are expected throughout the morning with temperatures dropping into the mid and upper 20s. As the snow showers move through, quick bursts of snow will reduce visibility and result in light snow accumulations which may cover roadways. If traveling Sunday, allow for some extra time to reach your destination and be prepared for rapidly changing driving conditions.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 10 at 4:10PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
A potentially robust band of snow showers is expected to develop later tonight, then move across eastern Kentucky as a cold front pushes into the area. This frontal passage will drop temperatures to below freezing in most locations by dawn Sunday. Brief visibility reductions and light accumulations will be possible within any squall-like snow showers that develop. The risk for gusty snow showers and/or snow squalls continues into Sunday afternoon, before subsiding from west to east by evening. Those traveling late tonight and on Sunday should be prepared for sudden visibility reductions and potentially slick elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses as winter weather returns to the the region.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued January 10 at 4:15PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
A potentially robust band of snow showers is expected to develop later tonight, then move across eastern Kentucky as a cold front pushes into the area. This frontal passage will drop temperatures to below freezing in most locations by dawn Sunday. Brief visibility reductions and light accumulations will be possible within any squall-like snow showers that develop. The risk for gusty snow showers and/or snow squalls continues into Sunday afternoon, before subsiding from west to east by evening. Those traveling late tonight and on Sunday should be prepared for sudden visibility reductions and potentially slick elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses as winter weather returns to the region.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Saturday, January 10, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Sharp Arctic Front Brings Gusty Winds and Temperature Drop
A dry but potent Arctic cold front will sweep across Kentucky on Saturday. Despite a significant moisture disagreement with the ECMWF, the consensus favors a dry, breezy passage with temperatures peaking in the 50s before crashing into the 30s by evening.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the timing of the cold front and wind gusts, but the confidence score is penalized by the significant outlier precipitation solution from the ECMWF.
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Purchase Area
Expect a cloudy start with temperatures near 51 degrees before a cold front moves through at midday. Winds will shift to the northwest and gust to 25 mph, dropping temperatures into the 30s by evening.
Northwest Pennyrile
Temperatures will peak in the low 50s before a sharp wind shift brings gusty conditions and rapidly falling temperatures by mid-afternoon. No precipitation is expected.
Southwest Pennyrile
A mild morning will transition to a very blustery afternoon as winds pick up from the northwest. Temperatures will reach the mid-50s before falling quickly after sunset.
Barren River
Bowling Green will see the warmest temperatures in the state today, reaching the upper 50s. However, gusty winds will arrive by late afternoon, making it feel like the 30s by dark.
Louisville Metro
The city will stay dry but turn windy mid-afternoon. Temperatures will drop from the mid-50s to the 30s very quickly behind the front.
Lincoln Trail
Clouds will cover the sky as the cold front arrives in the late afternoon. Expect winds to gust over 25 mph and temperatures to crash toward freezing by midnight.
Lake Cumberland
A very mild day with highs in the upper 50s. The cold air won't arrive until late in the evening, with dry conditions expected to hold.
Northern Kentucky
It will feel chilly with clouds all day and highs in the upper 40s. Gusty winds will arrive by afternoon, making it feel much colder by tonight.
Inner Bluegrass
Winds will pick up significantly this afternoon and evening, with gusts near 30 mph. Temperatures will reach the mid-50s before a brisk evening wind brings in colder air.
Bluegrass Foothills
Temperatures will stay in the mid-50s most of the day before a late wind shift brings in colder air tonight. The foothills will remain dry.
Northeast Kentucky
A grey day is in store, though it will stay relatively mild and completely dry. Cold winds will pick up late this evening as the cold front arrives.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will be warm today with highs in the upper 50s. The cold front won't reach this area until very late tonight, keeping conditions mild for most of the day.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The ECMWF outlier verifies, bringing a deep moisture plume with 1-3 inches of rain and potential localized flooding in Southern Kentucky.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The front is even drier than expected, resulting in clear skies and slightly warmer afternoon highs as compressional warming maximizes ahead of the boundary.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Great Moisture Disconnect
A massive disagreement exists between the ECMWF and the other major models. The ECMWF predicts a 195kt jet and 3 inches of rain, while the GFS, NAM, and GEM show a dry frontal passage with little to no precipitation.
Why BLEND Wins
The ECMWF solution is a significant outlier compared to the ensemble mean and the physical logic of dry air entrainment seen in the other models. We are leaning 90% toward the dry solution supported by NAM/GFS/GEM.
Celestial Almanac
Last Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.