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Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Thu, Jan 8
Sat, Jan 10
Forecast For

Friday, January 9

Updated Jan 8, 4:33 PM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Special Weather Statement

Jan 8, 7:12 PM -> Jan 8, 11:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 8 at 6:12PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Wind Advisory

Jan 8, 8:15 PM -> Jan 9, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Wind Advisory issued January 8 at 7:15PM CST until January 9 at 3:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 8, 10:12 PM -> Jan 9, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 8 at 10:12PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 8, 11:13 PM -> Jan 9, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 8 at 11:13PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 8, 11:40 PM -> Jan 9, 12:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 8 at 10:40PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 8, 11:41 PM -> Jan 9, 12:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 8 at 10:41PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 9, 3:26 AM -> Jan 9, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 9 at 3:26AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jan 9, 4:51 AM -> Jan 9, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 9 at 4:51AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Jan 9, 10:56 AM -> Jan 9, 11:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 9 at 10:56AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jan 9, 10:57 AM -> Jan 9, 5:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued January 9 at 10:57AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Confidence
70%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Friday, January 9, 2026.

Temperature
±6.8°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±19.92"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±8.1mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
64° / 46°
Actual
69° / 32°
Error: -5°F high, 14°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.75"
Actual
45.29"
±44.54" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
20 / 48 mph
Actual
11 / 40 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
63° / 46°
Actual
68° / 47°
Error: -5°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.8"
Actual
17.36"
±16.56" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
22 / 48 mph
Actual
13 / 42 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
64° / 50°
Actual
69° / 52°
Error: -5°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
1"
Actual
30.12"
±29.12" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
21 / 46 mph
Actual
12 / 41 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
65° / 53°
Actual
70° / 55°
Error: -5°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
1.1"
Actual
10"
±8.9" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
22 / 49 mph
Actual
13 / 40 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
62° / 45°
Actual
67° / 48°
Error: -5°F high, -3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.6"
Actual
1.37"
±0.7700000000000001" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
20 / 49 mph
Actual
15 / 39 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
61° / 49°
Actual
69° / 50°
Error: -8°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.8"
Actual
24.4"
±23.599999999999998" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
23 / 51 mph
Actual
12 / 41 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
62° / 54°
Actual
69° / 57°
Error: -7°F high, -3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
1.2"
Actual
43.41"
±42.209999999999994" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
17 / 45 mph
Actual
8 / 33 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
62° / 43°
Actual
70° / 45°
Error: -8°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.5"
Actual
3.21"
±2.71" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
17 / 48 mph
Actual
10 / 32 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
60° / 48°
Actual
70° / 32°
Error: -10°F high, 16°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.7"
Actual
6.93"
±6.2299999999999995" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
22 / 49 mph
Actual
16 / 38 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
61° / 52°
Actual
69° / 58°
Error: -8°F high, -6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.9"
Actual
5.6"
±4.699999999999999" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
19 / 48 mph
Actual
10 / 33 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
62° / 50°
Actual
70° / 47°
Error: -8°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.5"
Actual
8.83"
±8.33" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 42 mph
Actual
8 / 27 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
60° / 56°
Actual
67° / 41°
Error: -7°F high, 15°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.7"
Actual
52.11"
±51.41" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 45 mph
Actual
5 / 32 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Powerful Cold Front to Bring High Winds and Soaking Rain

A potent cold front will sweep across Kentucky on Friday, bringing widespread rain and significant wind gusts. Temperatures will peak early in the day before falling sharply behind the front, creating a non-diurnal temperature trend for most of the Commonwealth.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in precipitation type (all rain) and timing of the frontal passage. Moderate confidence in the exact magnitude of wind gusts and rainfall totals due to significant model spread between the global and mesoscale suites.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

IMPACTFUL
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Windy Morning with Early Rain
Rain
64°/ 46°

Northwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Strong Gusts and Steady Rain
Rain
63°/ 46°

Southwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Windy with Significant Rainfall
Rain
64°/ 50°

Barren River

IMPACTFUL
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Heavy Rain and High Wind Risk
Heavy_Rain
65°/ 53°

Louisville Metro

IMPACTFUL
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Breezy Rain and Falling Temps
Rain
62°/ 45°

Lincoln Trail

IMPACTFUL
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Extremely Windy and Wet
Rain
61°/ 49°

Lake Cumberland

IMPACTFUL
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Soaking Rains on the Plateau
Heavy_Rain
62°/ 54°

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Covington, Florence, Independence
Windy and Turning Chilly
Rain
62°/ 43°

Inner Bluegrass

IMPACTFUL
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Breezy and Wet with Sharp Cool Down
Rain
60°/ 48°

Bluegrass Foothills

IMPACTFUL
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Rain Increasing Through Afternoon
Rain
61°/ 52°

Northeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Damp and Windy Late Day
Rain
62°/ 50°

Southeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Wet Afternoon with Moderate Winds
Rain
60°/ 56°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the moisture transport from the Euro verifies alongside the NAM's kinematic strength, localized rainfall could exceed 2 inches in the south, while wind gusts reach 55 mph, leading to scattered power outages and minor flooding.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the GFS's drier and faster solution wins, rainfall totals will remain under 0.5 inches for most, and the wind gusts will stay below 40 mph as the dry slot limits momentum transfer from the jet.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Momentum Transfer Conflict

A sharp disagreement exists regarding surface wind gusts. The NAM and GFS resolve a 60-70kt LLJ that mixes down aggressively, while the Euro is much more conservative with surface gusts.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

Inside 24-36 hours, the NAM's higher resolution typically captures the momentum transfer in high-shear, low-CAPE environments more accurately than global models.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILELOUISVILLE METROLINCOLN TRAILBLUEGRASS CORE

The Rainfall Magnitude Tug-of-War

The Euro forecasts a heavy, moisture-rich system with 1.5"+ totals across the south, whereas the GFS shows a much more progressive, drier frontal passage with totals under 0.5".

GFS
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

The Euro likely over-estimates moisture efficiency in a fast-moving trough, while the GFS 'smear' effect is likely under-forecasting localized terrain-enhanced totals.

Affected Regions
LAKE CUMBERLANDBARREN RIVERSOUTHEAST COALFIELDSBLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The vertical column is characterized by a deep, moist-adiabatic profile ahead of the front with 850mb temps near +10C. A sharp post-frontal inversion will develop.

Thermal Boundary

The front enters Western KY by 06Z, the I-65 corridor by 15Z, and clears the I-75 corridor by 21Z.

Diurnal Trend

Non-diurnal. Morning highs will be followed by 10-15 degree drops within three hours of frontal passage.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

Marked by a 90-degree wind shift (SW to WNW) and a sudden jump in wind gust intensity.

Jet Stream Support

Strong support from the right entrance region of a 150mph jet streak providing significant upper-level divergence.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough provides high absolute vorticity (1.0e-4 s-1) driving the surface front.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Fully saturated from surface to 400mb ahead of the front; rapid drying occurs immediately behind the boundary.

Precipitation Character

Predominantly stratiform rain with embedded convective elements along the immediate frontal line.

Flooding Context

Progressive nature of the system limits widespread flooding, but 1.0"+ totals in the south may cause localized ponding.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

62% Illumination
Moonrise
11:50 PM
Moonset
11:53 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
8:09 AM
Sunset
5:55 PM
Civil Dawn
7:40 AM
Civil Dusk
6:24 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:05 AM
Sunset
5:48 PM
Civil Dawn
7:36 AM
Civil Dusk
6:17 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
8:04 AM
Sunset
5:51 PM
Civil Dawn
7:35 AM
Civil Dusk
6:20 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
8:00 AM
Sunset
5:47 PM
Civil Dawn
7:31 AM
Civil Dusk
6:16 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
8:01 AM
Sunset
5:41 PM
Civil Dawn
7:31 AM
Civil Dusk
6:10 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:59 AM
Sunset
5:43 PM
Civil Dawn
7:31 AM
Civil Dusk
6:12 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:53 AM
Sunset
5:39 PM
Civil Dawn
7:24 AM
Civil Dusk
6:08 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:58 AM
Sunset
5:34 PM
Civil Dawn
7:28 AM
Civil Dusk
6:03 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:55 AM
Sunset
5:36 PM
Civil Dawn
7:26 AM
Civil Dusk
6:06 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:53 AM
Sunset
5:36 PM
Civil Dawn
7:24 AM
Civil Dusk
6:05 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:49 AM
Sunset
5:28 PM
Civil Dawn
7:19 AM
Civil Dusk
5:57 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:48 AM
Sunset
5:33 PM
Civil Dawn
7:19 AM
Civil Dusk
6:02 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.