Thursday, January 8
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Thursday, January 8, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Spring-Like Warmth and Powerful Winds Surge North
A potent atmospheric setup will drive unseasonably warm temperatures and high winds across Kentucky. While a few light showers will affect western and north-central regions, the primary story is the 40+ mph wind gusts and a non-diurnal temperature curve that will see temperatures peaking late in the evening.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the 60-degree temperatures and strong winds; lower confidence in the eastern extent of light rainfall due to significant dry air aloft.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a very mild and breezy day with rain showers arriving by late morning. Winds will be the main factor, gusting up to 45 mph.
Northwest Pennyrile
A dry but blustery day. Temperatures will climb into the mid-60s by evening, with wind gusts frequently exceeding 40 mph.
Southwest Pennyrile
Cloudy and very warm for January. Winds will be strong throughout the afternoon, making outdoor work difficult.
Barren River
The 'Snow Eater' effect will be in full force as warm winds surge through the region. Expect highs in the mid-60s.
Louisville Metro
A few light sprinkles are possible during the morning commute. The afternoon will be dry and very warm with gusts to 40 mph.
Lincoln Trail
Temperatures will jump nearly 25 degrees today. Expect very windy conditions, especially in higher elevations.
Lake Cumberland
A very pleasant but breezy day. Highs will reach the low 60s, though the sun will be filtered by clouds.
Northern Kentucky
Gray skies will prevail, but the cold is gone. Temperatures will hit the 60s by evening as winds pick up.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see a significant warm-up accompanied by strong wind gusts that could toss loose items.
Bluegrass Foothills
Morning frost will quickly vanish as temperatures surge toward 60 degrees. Windy conditions by evening.
Northeast Kentucky
Cloudy and much warmer than recent days. While breezy, it won't be as windy as western Kentucky.
Southeast Kentucky
A mild and dry day for the mountains. Temperatures will reach the low 60s under mostly cloudy skies.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the low-level column saturates faster than models suggest, widespread light rain of 0.10-0.20" could soak the entire state while winds gust over 50 mph.
The 'Bust' Scenario
A 'Bust' scenario involves the dry air winning out completely, resulting in a cloud-only event for most, with rain restricted to the far western Purchase area.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Great Moisture Gap
The Euro forecasts widespread rain coverage (80% POP) across the state, while the NAM and GFS show a significant dry layer at 800mb that would evaporate most precipitation before it hits the ground.
Why BLEND Wins
Sounding analysis confirms a deep dry layer in the mid-levels. I am favoring the NAM/GFS drier solution for the east, while keeping the Euro's higher coverage for the western third of the state.
Momentum Transfer Conflict
The Euro is much more conservative with surface wind gusts (15-20 mph), whereas the NAM and GFS suggest efficient mixing of the 60kt low-level jet to the surface.
Why GFS Wins
With 850mb winds of 50-60kts and steep low-level lapse rates, the NAM and GFS are likely more accurate in forecasting 40+ mph gusts.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.