Wednesday, January 7
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Wednesday, January 7, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Strong Cold Front Brings Rain East and Sharp Temp Drop
A powerful cold front will sweep across Kentucky on Wednesday. Western Kentucky will remain mostly dry with falling temperatures, while central and eastern regions will see light to moderate rain showers. Non-diurnal temperature trends will be common, with highs occurring early followed by a sharp afternoon chill and gusty winds.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in frontal timing and a sharp temperature drop. Moderate confidence in precipitation totals due to the significant dry air present in the GFS and NAM soundings for Western Kentucky.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
It will be a cloudy day with temperatures falling through the morning. While radar may show echoes, the air near the ground is too dry for rain to reach the surface.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a gray day along the Ohio River with brisk winds. No rain is expected, but a heavy coat will be needed by the afternoon as temperatures drop.
Southwest Pennyrile
Temperatures will start mild in the 50s but will crash into the 30s by early afternoon as the cold front passes through.
Barren River
A gray and windy day is in store for Bowling Green. Winds will gust over 20 mph at times, but the measurable rain will stay to your east.
Louisville Metro
Expect a cloudy and blustery day in the Metro. While it will be chilly, the rain is expected to miss most of the city to the east.
Lincoln Trail
It will be a very windy day across the Lincoln Trail, with gusts up to 30 mph possible. No significant rain or snow is expected.
Lake Cumberland
Expect some rain showers during the morning hours. The rain will move out by the afternoon, leaving behind a cloudy and breezy day.
Northern Kentucky
It will be a cold, gray day in Northern Kentucky. While most of the state is seeing rain, you will see thick clouds and feel a biting breeze.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see a very windy day with thick clouds. Winds will blow nearly 30 mph at times, making the 40-degree temperatures feel even colder.
Bluegrass Foothills
Brace for a blustery day. Clouds will be thick and winds could gust to 30 mph, though no significant rain is expected.
Northeast Kentucky
A soggy morning is in store for Ashland and Morehead. Steady rain will fall through midday before skies begin to dry out in the afternoon.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect light rain showers during the morning. By afternoon, the rain will taper off, but it will remain cloudy, breezy, and cool.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the front slows and moisture transport from the Gulf overachieves, the Eastern Coalfields and Bluegrass could see rainfall totals exceeding 0.50", with rain lingering longer into the evening hours.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the GFS solution verifies, the dry-slotting will be total. This would result in a windy, cloudy day statewide with virtually no measurable precipitation reaching the ground.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Moisture Disconnect
A significant disagreement exists regarding whether the intense synoptic lift can overcome low-level dry air. The GFS predicts a completely dry day, while the NAM and Euro suggest enough saturation for measurable rain in the east.
Why NAM Wins
NAM's superior resolution of mesoscale boundaries and low-level moisture profiles suggests that the synoptic lift from the 160mph jet will successfully saturate the column in the eastern half of the state, despite the GFS 'smear' of dryness.
Frontal Wind Magnitude
The Euro is notably weaker with surface wind gusts compared to the NAM and GFS, which show robust momentum transfer from the jet aloft.
Why NONE Wins
The intense 150kt+ jet core supports the higher wind values seen in the NAM and GFS. We are leaning toward a consensus of these two models, ignoring the lighter Euro wind field.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.