Tuesday, January 6
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Tuesday, January 6, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Blustery and Unseasonably Mild; Dry Conditions Persist
A powerful upper-level jet streak will cross the Commonwealth on Tuesday, resulting in very windy conditions statewide. Despite the strong atmospheric energy and widespread cloud cover, a parched lower atmosphere will prevent any measurable precipitation from reaching the ground. Temperatures will remain 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal norms.
Confidence Assessment
Strong model consensus exists regarding the lack of measurable precipitation and the presence of an unusually strong jet streak. Disagreement is limited to minor variances in peak wind gust speeds and afternoon high temperatures.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Expect a very mild day with temperatures climbing into the low 60s. The main story will be the wind, with gusts reaching 41 mph during the morning and early afternoon. While clouds will be thick early on, some clearing is possible by sunset. No rain will reach the ground.
Northwest Pennyrile
A gray and blustery day is in store for the Owensboro and Henderson areas. Temperatures will reach the low 60s despite the cloud cover. Winds will be a persistent nuisance, but the air is too dry for any of the clouds to produce rain.
Southwest Pennyrile
Temperatures will reach the 60s, making it feel more like spring than January. It will be a windy day, but the sky will remain dry. Clouds will dominate the morning hours, with slow clearing expected overnight.
Barren River
A very windy day for Bowling Green with gusts up to 38 mph. Highs will hover around the 60-degree mark. Clouds will be stubborn for most of the day, but no precipitation is expected.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see gusts approaching 40 mph today as a powerful jet streak passes overhead. Highs will be near 58 degrees. While the sky will look gray, the air is too dry for any rain to fall. Clouds will thin out late tonight.
Lincoln Trail
Winds will be notably stronger along the Muldraugh Escarpment, with gusts up to 38 mph. Highs will reach the upper 50s. The day remains dry with plenty of cloud cover.
Lake Cumberland
Expect a pleasant but windy day at the lake. Temperatures will stay in the upper 50s, but it will be quite breezy with gusts to 38 mph. Skies will be overcast, but no rain is expected to impact outdoor plans.
Northern Kentucky
It will be a bit cooler here than in the south, but still mild for January with highs in the mid-50s. Winds will gust to 38 mph. Clouds will linger through the evening before clearing late tonight.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see some of the highest wind gusts in the state, potentially reaching 41 mph. Highs will be in the mid-50s. The day will remain entirely dry despite the threatening look of the sky.
Bluegrass Foothills
Winds will be a nuisance for the foothills, with gusts over 40 mph at times. Temperatures will reach the mid-50s. Cloudy conditions will persist until late in the evening.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect a mild day with highs in the upper 50s. While it will be breezy, winds will be slightly lower than in central KY. Clouds will increase through the afternoon, but no rain will fall.
Southeast Kentucky
A very mild day for the mountains with temperatures reaching 59 degrees. Winds will be gusty on the ridges but lighter in the valleys. No precipitation is expected for your Tuesday.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the boundary layer mixes more efficiently than anticipated, wind gusts could exceed 45 mph, and temperatures could reach the mid-60s in the Purchase and Pennyrile regions should clouds thin out earlier.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the NAM's cooler thermal profile and denser cloud cover verify, high temperatures may struggle to reach the mid-50s, and wind gusts would likely remain below 35 mph due to limited surface-to-aloft momentum transfer.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Momentum Mixing Match
The NAM is significantly more aggressive with surface wind gusts, projecting values over 40 mph, whereas the Euro and GFS are more conservative with gusts in the low 30s.
Why NAM Wins
In high-velocity jet streak patterns, the NAM's higher resolution typically captures the mechanical mixing of low-level momentum more accurately than global models.
The Thermal Ceiling Clash
The GFS is an outlier on the high end of temperatures, suggesting low 60s for much of the state, while the NAM suggests the cloud deck will keep highs capped in the low 50s.
Why BLEND Wins
While GFS handles warm-air advection well, it likely underestimates the thermal dampening effect of the 100% cloud cover shown by the Euro and NAM.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.