Monday, January 5
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Monday, January 5, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Frosty Morning Gives Way to Breezy Afternoon Warming
A dry but dynamic atmospheric setup will dominate Kentucky on Monday. A moisture-starved shortwave and a powerful upper-level jet will cross the state, bringing increasing cloud cover and breezy conditions, but critically low humidity will prevent any precipitation from reaching the ground.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement between all major guidance on the lack of measurable precipitation; minor discrepancies remain only on cloud timing and peak wind gust magnitudes.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
A frosty morning will quickly give way to a bright and mild afternoon. Winds will increase after lunch, gusting to 30 mph at times.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect clear skies and temperatures climbing into the mid-50s. It will be a windy afternoon, particularly near the Ohio River.
Southwest Pennyrile
The warmest conditions in the state will be found here, with plenty of sunshine and highs approaching 60 degrees.
Barren River
A very cold start with frost on the windshields will be followed by a beautiful, sunny afternoon.
Louisville Metro
It will be a bright day across the metro, though it will feel chilly at times due to afternoon wind gusts near 30 mph.
Lincoln Trail
Sunny skies will dominate, but hold onto your hat as winds gust over 30 mph across the higher terrain.
Lake Cumberland
A pleasant day for the lake area with temperatures reaching the mid-50s under mostly sunny skies.
Northern Kentucky
A cold start will be followed by a grey afternoon. While clouds will increase, the air is too dry for any rain.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect plenty of morning sun followed by afternoon clouds. It will be a windy day with gusts over 30 mph in Lexington.
Bluegrass Foothills
Morning sunshine will be replaced by clouds in the afternoon. Temperatures will be seasonal and dry.
Northeast Kentucky
Frosty morning temperatures in the 20s will rebound into the low 50s before clouds move in late.
Southeast Kentucky
A beautiful start for the mountains with sunny skies. Clouds will increase late in the day, but it will remain dry.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
A slightly faster return of mid-level moisture could result in scattered sprinkles or light virga, particularly in Northern Kentucky, though no measurable accumulation would occur.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Enhanced mixing in the boundary layer could lead to higher wind gusts exceeding 40 mph in Western Kentucky, while a faster-moving cloud shield could keep afternoon highs 3-5 degrees cooler than forecast.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Boundary Layer Wind Fight
The GFS predicts peak wind gusts reaching 35-40 mph in the Purchase and Pennyrile regions associated with an evening dry front, while the NAM and Euro are more conservative, topping out at 25-30 mph.
Why NAM Wins
NAM's higher-resolution boundary layer mixing profiles tend to handle momentum transfer from the low-level jet more accurately in these post-high-pressure setups.
The Sky Cover Conflict
The ECMWF and NAM models suggest a rapid saturation of the 700mb layer, leading to broken-to-overcast skies by afternoon. The GFS remains significantly drier, forecasting nearly clear skies.
Why EURO Wins
The strength of the upper-level jet support and the magnitude of the passing shortwave usually provide enough lift for mid-to-high level cloud development, even in moisture-starved environments.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.