Sunday, January 4
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Sunday, January 4, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Cold and Quiet with a Gray Afternoon
Kentucky will experience a tranquil but chilly winter day as high pressure remains in control. While the morning will start with sunshine across much of the Commonwealth, a powerful upper-level jet stream will drive an increase in mid-to-high level cloud cover from west to east by the afternoon. Despite the overcast appearance later in the day, the lower atmosphere remains extremely dry, ensuring no precipitation reaches the ground.
Confidence Assessment
Strong model consensus exists for a dry day. High-pressure dominance and the lack of a moisture tap from the Gulf make precipitation almost impossible, even with the high clouds.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
A cold but bright start will give way to cloudy skies by early afternoon. It will stay dry despite the overcast appearance.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a gray afternoon as clouds move in quickly. Temperatures will be seasonable, reaching the lower 40s.
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunshine will be prevalent early, but clouds will increase through the day. No rain or snow is expected.
Barren River
Temperatures will start in the 20s and recover to the mid-40s before clouds thicken in the evening.
Louisville Metro
A quiet day for the city with mostly cloudy skies by the afternoon. It will stay dry and chilly.
Lincoln Trail
A frosty morning followed by a cloudy but dry afternoon. Highs will reach the low 40s.
Lake Cumberland
A pleasant start to the day with sunshine. Clouds will begin to filter the sun by late afternoon.
Northern Kentucky
Highs will struggle to reach the upper 30s. Clouds will dominate the second half of the day.
Inner Bluegrass
A cold start in the mid-20s. Clouds will move in by lunchtime, keeping it feeling chilly.
Bluegrass Foothills
A very quiet winter day. It will be cold in the morning, followed by gray skies in the afternoon.
Northeast Kentucky
Sunshine will last longest here, but the morning will be very cold in the valleys. Highs in the upper 30s.
Southeast Kentucky
A peaceful day for the mountains with plenty of morning sun. Highs will reach the lower 40s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level moisture recovers faster than expected, a few stray flurries or a light sprinkle could reach the ground in the Northern Bluegrass or Northeast Kentucky, though no accumulation would occur.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the cloud shield remains thinner or arrives later as the GFS suggests, temperatures could over-perform by 2-4 degrees, leading to a more pleasant afternoon for outdoor activities.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Cloud Shield Conflict
The Euro (ECMWF) aggressively forecasts near 100% cloud cover by midday due to mid-level saturation (700mb-500mb). The GFS and NAM keep the state significantly clearer for a longer duration, only bringing in high-level cirrus late in the day.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro typically handles the moisture profiles of upper-level jet-induced cloud shields more accurately than the GFS, which often over-dries the mid-levels in high-vorticity environments.
Boundary Layer Momentum Transfer
The GFS is forecasting surface gusts up to 15mph, while the NAM remains much calmer. This depends on how much of the 110kt jet energy can mix down through the morning inversion.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM handles the strength of the morning surface inversion better than the GFS; the stability of the cold air mass near the surface should prevent significant momentum transfer of the jet energy.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.