Saturday, January 3
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Saturday, January 3, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Cold and Quiet Post-Frontal Saturday Across Kentucky
High pressure building in from the west will usher in a dry but chilly continental airmass. Morning cloud cover, especially in Northern and Eastern Kentucky, will gradually erode throughout the afternoon, leading to a clear and cold night. No precipitation is expected despite a passing moisture-starved shortwave.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement across all major models on a completely dry forecast and the overall synoptic progression. Minor uncertainty is limited to the exact timing of cloud clearing in the east.
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Purchase Area
Expect a cold start with morning clouds giving way to bright sunshine by midday. Afternoon highs will reach the low 40s with a light breeze.
Northwest Pennyrile
A chilly morning with lingering clouds along the Ohio River will clear for a sunny afternoon. Winds will remain light but the air will feel biting.
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunshine will be the rule for the majority of the day after a cold morning. Temperatures will be among the warmest in Kentucky, reaching the mid-40s.
Barren River
A crisp but beautiful day is expected with clear skies for the afternoon. Highs will climb into the mid-40s.
Louisville Metro
The Metro area will stay mostly cloudy through lunchtime with sunshine appearing late. Highs will struggle to reach 40 degrees.
Lincoln Trail
Winds will make it feel like the low 20s this morning. Skies will gradually clear through the day. Expect a cold but dry afternoon.
Lake Cumberland
Mostly sunny and dry for the lake region. Highs will reach the mid-40s, making it one of the more pleasant spots to be today.
Northern Kentucky
A very cold day for Covington and Independence with highs barely exceeding freezing. Stubborn clouds will linger for most of the morning.
Inner Bluegrass
Gray skies will dominate the morning hours. Afternoon sun will be limited but welcome. Wind chills will stay in the 20s for much of the day.
Bluegrass Foothills
Mostly cloudy skies will eventually break by late afternoon. Highs will stay in the 30s. No rain or snow is expected.
Northeast Kentucky
A very cold morning with cloud cover keeping the afternoon chilly. Sunshine will be hard to come by until very late in the day.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will remain under a blanket of clouds for much of the day. It will stay dry but chilly with highs in the lower 40s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the subsidence inversion breaks earlier and high pressure centers more quickly, afternoon solar insulation could push temperatures 3-5 degrees above current consensus, especially in the southern river basins.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Stubborn low-level stratus trapped beneath the inversion remains locked over the Bluegrass and Eastern Coalfields until after sunset, preventing any meaningful diurnal recovery and keeping highs near freezing in the north.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Northern Tier Thermal Floor
The Euro and NAM are several degrees colder with high temperatures along the Ohio River compared to the warmer GFS output.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro and NAM better account for the strength of the cold air advection (CAA) following the shortwave passage, whereas the GFS has a known warm bias in these shallow cold-air setups.
The Stratus Scour Struggle
The NAM is significantly more aggressive than the GFS regarding the persistence of low-level cloud cover trapped under the post-frontal inversion, particularly in the Eastern Coalfields and Bluegrass.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM's higher vertical resolution typically handles shallow boundary layer moisture and subsidence inversions better than the global GFS, which tends to clear skies too quickly in post-frontal regimes.
Celestial Almanac
Full Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.