Friday, January 2
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Friday, January 2, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dry and Chilly: Powerful Jet Stream Maintains Gray Skies
A dry but cloudy pattern will hold across Kentucky as a high-velocity jet stream passes overhead. While precipitation is unlikely, a sharp temperature gradient will persist from north to south.
Confidence Assessment
Extremely high confidence in a dry forecast across all 12 regions due to the lack of moisture in the column. Lower confidence on exact cloud clearing times and afternoon highs in the south.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a grey but dry day across the Purchase area. Temperatures will reach the mid-40s with a light breeze.
Northwest Pennyrile
Temperatures will hover near the freezing mark early, only warming into the low 40s under a blanket of clouds.
Southwest Pennyrile
One of the warmer spots in Kentucky today, though you likely won't see much sun until late.
Barren River
A dry day for Bowling Green with temperatures nearing 50 degrees, though clouds will be persistent.
Louisville Metro
Cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 30s will make it feel like a classic January day in the city.
Lincoln Trail
No travel issues today across the Lincoln Trail region, but it will remain chilly with plenty of clouds.
Lake Cumberland
A quiet day at the lake with highs reaching the mid-to-upper 40s and dry conditions.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will stay cold with highs barely reaching the mid-30s. No snow is expected despite the clouds.
Inner Bluegrass
A cloudy and uninspiring January day. Temperatures will hover near 40 degrees through the afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
Cloudy skies will dominate from Richmond to Berea. It will be cold, but travel will not be impacted.
Northeast Kentucky
Morning temperatures in the 20s will slowly climb into the low 40s. Dry conditions will prevail all day.
Southeast Kentucky
It will be quite breezy in the mountains today, with gusts reaching up to 27 mph on the higher ridges. No rain or snow.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If mid-level saturation occurs faster than modeled, a few stray flurries or 'frozen' drizzle (virga reaching the ground) could impact the Northeast and Northern Kentucky valleys.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the GFS subsidence wins and the 'dry slot' clears out the mid-level moisture, the state could see a much sunnier and slightly warmer afternoon than currently forecast.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Southern Warmth Gradient
The GFS is significantly warmer in the southern tier, pushing 50°F, while the NAM keeps those regions in the mid-40s.
Why GFS Wins
The GFS typically handles surface temperature recovery in zonal return-flow scenarios better than the mesoscale NAM, which can be too slow to erode shallow cold pools.
The Cloud Cover Conflict
The GFS is aggressively clear (sunny) across the state, while the NAM and Euro suggest a saturated 850-700mb layer will keep skies overcast.
Why EURO Wins
High-velocity jet streaks typically generate significant mid-to-high level cloudiness (cirrus/altostratus) that global models like the GFS often under-forecast in high-pressure regimes.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.