Thursday, January 1
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Thursday, January 1, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Cold, Blustery Start to 2026; Clearing in Western KY
Kentucky will ring in the New Year with a sharp contrast between a sunny, milder west and a cloudy, biting cold east. While dry conditions prevail statewide, a powerful upper-level jet will drive gusty winds and significant wind chills through the afternoon.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the lack of precipitation and the thermal setup in the Northeast; slight uncertainty remains regarding the exact eastern extent of the clearing line.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Residents will enjoy a sunny start to 2026. After a cold morning, temperatures will rebound into the low 50s under clear skies.
Northwest Pennyrile
Morning clouds will give way to a sunny afternoon. It will remain chilly with highs in the mid-40s.
Southwest Pennyrile
A very pleasant New Year's Day with full sunshine and the mildest temperatures in the Commonwealth, reaching 51 degrees.
Barren River
Bowling Green will see plenty of sun today. Expect a cold morning followed by a crisp afternoon in the upper 40s.
Louisville Metro
Derby City will remain mostly cloudy and cold. A biting wind will make temperatures in the 30s feel like the 20s.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a few more peeks of sun than Louisville, but it will be a blustery day with cold morning wind chills.
Lake Cumberland
A mostly cloudy and breezy day for Somerset. Gusts up to 25 mph will keep wind chills in the 20s.
Northern Kentucky
One of the coldest spots in Kentucky. Gray skies and 30 mph gusts will make it feel significantly below freezing all day.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will be blustery with stubborn clouds. Wind chills will hover in the 20s as gusts peak near 30 mph.
Bluegrass Foothills
Richmond and Danville will face a very breezy holiday. Gray skies persist with wind chills in the lower 20s.
Northeast Kentucky
A raw day in Ashland. Temperatures will fall through the morning and stay cold under leaden skies.
Southeast Kentucky
A windy holiday in the mountains. Cloudy skies will dominate, and peaks could see gusts over 30 mph.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the 850mb moisture lingers and the cold air damming is deeper, Northern and Northeast Kentucky could see isolated flurries and highs struggling to break 30°F, while wind gusts reach 35 mph.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the surface high builds faster and the dry slot is more aggressive, clearing skies could reach as far east as Lexington by noon, allowing temperatures to recover into the mid-40s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Momentum Duel
A major discrepancy exists regarding surface wind gusts. The NAM and GFS suggest significant downward momentum transfer from the 150kt jet, resulting in 30mph+ gusts, while the Euro remains much calmer with gusts under 10mph.
Why NAM Wins
In a post-frontal cold advection regime with a high-velocity jet overhead, global models like the Euro often under-simulate the mixing depth. The NAM's higher resolution typically captures these momentum transfers more accurately.
The Western Clearing
Models disagree on how quickly the stratocumulus deck will erode. The NAM keeps the state mostly overcast, while the GFS and Euro show rapid clearing for the Purchase and Pennyrile regions.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro handles the magnitude of subsidence behind the departing shortwave more consistently. The NAM tends to over-saturate the boundary layer in these dry-trough setups.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.