Wednesday, December 31
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Wednesday, December 31, 2025.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Biting Winds and Chilly Skies to Close 2025
Kentucky will end the year under a cold, dry, and blustery regime. While high pressure builds from the west, a powerful upper-level jet will drive a moisture-starved shortwave across the region, bringing cloud cover and brisk northwest winds. No measurable precipitation is expected for New Year's Eve festivities.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the dry nature of the air mass and thermal profiles. The only uncertainty lies in the exact magnitude of wind gusts during the afternoon mixing cycle.
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Purchase Area
The warmest corner of the state will still be quite chilly. Expect a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day. Winds will pick up in the afternoon, making New Year's Eve celebrations feel like the low 30s.
Northwest Pennyrile
Grey skies will dominate the afternoon as a cloud deck slides in from the north. Brisk winds will make it feel much colder than the high of 39 degrees.
Southwest Pennyrile
A largely sunny day, though high clouds will increase toward evening. Expect a very cold start in the mid-20s, with a slow recovery into the low 40s.
Barren River
Mainly sunny for Bowling Green and surrounding areas, but the wind will be the main story. Morning wind chills will dip into the mid-teens, so dress accordingly for early plans.
Louisville Metro
Cloudy skies will keep the sun at bay for most of the day in Louisville. Gusts of 30 mph will be common during the afternoon, making it a very blustery end to the year.
Lincoln Trail
Expect thick clouds and a persistent, biting wind for Elizabethtown and the ridges. Temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 30s.
Lake Cumberland
Breezy conditions will make the lake areas feel quite cold today. No rain or snow is expected, but the clouds will keep things looking gloomy.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will be one of the coldest spots today, with clouds and wind persisting all day. Wind chills will stay in the teens, so bundle up if heading to Cincinnati or Covington.
Inner Bluegrass
Very high wind gusts for the Bluegrass, reaching up to 34 mph at times. Skies will be mostly cloudy and it will feel like the teens for most of the day.
Bluegrass Foothills
A blustery day with strong gusts that will make outdoor activities difficult. Cloud cover will vary, but the cold wind will be the primary story.
Northeast Kentucky
A cold and overcast day for Ashland and the mountains. No snow is expected. Breezy conditions will be most noticeable on the hilltops.
Southeast Kentucky
Partly sunny skies early will give way to more clouds by afternoon. Winds will be very strong on the mountain peaks, gusting over 30 mph.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the passing shortwave taps into a narrow corridor of deeper moisture, isolated high-based snow flurries or a brief 'dusting' could occur in the Northeast and Bluegrass regions, though probabilities remain below 15%.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry slot is more aggressive as suggested by the GFS, the Commonwealth could see widespread sunshine and slightly lighter winds, mitigating the bite of the cold air mass.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Cloud Cover Conflict
The GFS is an outlier showing nearly clear skies across the state, while the NAM and Euro depict a persistent 3,000-5,000 ft cloud deck moving through the northern half of Kentucky.
Why EURO Wins
The GFS has a known bias for over-clearing moisture in dry-conveyor belt scenarios. Both the NAM and Euro resolve the moisture trapped beneath the subsidence inversion more realistically.
The Boundary Layer Mixing War
A significant discrepancy exists between the global ECMWF and the mesoscale NAM regarding surface wind gusts. The NAM suggests deep mixing and 30-35 mph gusts, while the ECMWF is significantly more conservative with gusts capped near 15 mph.
Why NAM Wins
High-resolution mesoscale models like the NAM typically handle vertical momentum transfer and boundary layer mixing more accurately in post-frontal, high-gradient environments. The 140kt jet aloft supports the windier solution.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.