Tuesday, December 30
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Tuesday, December 30, 2025.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Frigid and Blustery: Sunshine Fades to Evening Clouds
A dry but bitterly cold continental air mass will dominate Kentucky. While mostly sunny skies will prevail through the early afternoon, a secondary moisture-starved disturbance will bring increasing cloud cover by evening. High temperatures will struggle to reach freezing for most of the state, made worse by a biting northwest breeze.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the lack of measurable precipitation across all suites. The main uncertainty lies in the exact peak of afternoon wind gusts and the timing of the evening cloud ceiling return.
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Purchase Area
The warmest spot in the state will still be quite cold, with highs peaking in the mid-30s. Sunshine will be dominant until late evening when clouds begin to increase.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a very cold day with temperatures hovering near the freezing mark. Wind gusts will make it feel like the teens throughout the afternoon.
Southwest Pennyrile
Plenty of sunshine will do little to counteract the arctic air mass. Temperatures will remain just above freezing for only an hour or two.
Barren River
A very quiet but cold day is expected for Bowling Green. The wind will pick up late in the day, causing wind chills to plummet after sunset.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will struggle to reach 31 degrees today. Gusty winds will make for a very uncomfortable evening commute.
Lincoln Trail
Highs will remain at or below the freezing mark for the entire day. Wind chills in the morning will be in the single digits.
Lake Cumberland
A very cold start with some clouds will transition to sun by midday. Highs will settle right around the 30-degree mark.
Northern Kentucky
This region will remain below freezing all day. Expect clouds to return by mid-afternoon, keeping the atmosphere feeling very wintry.
Inner Bluegrass
Highs will only reach 29 degrees. Wind gusts up to 30 mph will keep the 'real feel' in the teens or single digits all day.
Bluegrass Foothills
A very wintry-feeling day with highs in the upper 20s. Winds will be gusty, especially on elevated terrain.
Northeast Kentucky
A gray and frigid day for Ashland and Morehead. Cloud cover will be more persistent here than in Western Kentucky.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will see a mix of clouds and sun, but temperatures will stay in the 20s. Ridges will see significant wind gusts throughout the evening.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level shortwave manages to tap into residual Great Lakes moisture, isolated snow flurries or light 'virga' showers could reach the ground in Northeast Kentucky and the Bluegrass, though no accumulation would occur.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the secondary cloud deck arrives earlier and thicker than modeled, afternoon highs will stay 3-5 degrees colder than forecast, potentially keeping even the Purchase region below freezing all day.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Sky Cover Skirmish
A major disagreement exists regarding cloud cover. The Euro maintains a thick, overcast deck all day, while the NAM and GFS show significant clearing between 15Z and 21Z before a secondary cloud surge arrives in the evening.
Why BLEND Wins
Satellite trends show a significant dry slot behind the primary trough. While the Euro is likely too pessimistic on clearing, the NAM/GFS may overstate the duration of sunshine before the secondary vorticity max arrives from the north.
The Thermal Floor War
The Euro is an outlier on the cold side, suggesting highs in the mid-20s for Central KY, whereas the NAM and GFS suggest lower 30s with solar insulation.
Why GFS Wins
In dry continental air masses, the Euro tends to over-index on cold air depth and under-index on solar gain. The GFS/NAM consensus of low 30s is more consistent with expected 850mb temperatures of -8C to -10C.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.