Monday, December 29
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Monday, December 29, 2025.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dangerous Arctic Crash & Powerful Winds Grip Kentucky
A powerful arctic cold front will sweep across Kentucky on Monday, triggering a massive, non-diurnal temperature plunge and high-velocity wind gusts. While dynamic support is extreme, the atmosphere remains moisture-starved, keeping precipitation limited to scattered flurries. Wind chills will drop into the single digits for many by sunset.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the timing of the arctic front and the magnitude of the temperature crash; minor uncertainty remains regarding cloud clearing and the potential for non-accumulating flurries.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
The front arrives very early, meaning temperatures will start in the 30s and fall throughout the day. Despite the sun, it will feel like the teens.
Northwest Pennyrile
A gloomy, very cold day with temperatures struggling to reach the freezing mark and wind chills in the single digits.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect clear skies but a sharp chill. Any remaining moisture on roads will likely freeze into slick spots.
Barren River
Bowling Green will start near freezing and drop into the low 20s. Sunshine will not provide much relief from the wind.
Louisville Metro
High winds will gust around downtown buildings, making it feel like 9 degrees. Temperatures will fall all day.
Lincoln Trail
Strong winds on the Muldraugh Escarpment will make for a raw day. Temperatures will stay below freezing after sunrise.
Lake Cumberland
Morning warmth will vanish instantly as the front hits. Temperatures will fall from the 60s into the 20s with severe wind gusts.
Northern Kentucky
Grey and frigid. Temperatures will plummet and stay in the 20s, with wind chills near 10 degrees all day.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect some of the highest wind gusts in the state. The open terrain will allow wind chills to drop to 6 degrees.
Bluegrass Foothills
High winds and crashing temperatures will hit the foothills. Expect a 40-degree drop from morning to evening.
Northeast Kentucky
Temperatures in the 50s at dawn will crash below freezing by noon. Roads may become slick as moisture freezes quickly.
Southeast Kentucky
A massive seasonal shift in one day. Morning warmth in the 60s will turn into a freezing 23 degrees by evening.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If low-level moisture recovery is slightly faster than modeled, a narrow, high-intensity band of snow squalls could develop along the frontal boundary, causing brief whiteout conditions and rapid accumulation of a dusting to half an inch.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry slot is even more aggressive as the GFS suggests, the state will see rapid clearing and high sunshine by midday, slightly mitigating the feel of the cold despite the crashing temperatures.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Momentum Transfer Melee
A conflict between the NAM's aggressive 50mph gust potential and the more conservative Euro/GFS outputs near 35-40mph.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM resolves the high-resolution pressure gradient and momentum transfer from the 175mph jet streak more effectively in high-shear, low-CAPE environments.
The Cloud Shield Conundrum
The GFS suggests rapid post-frontal clearing (sunny), while the NAM and Euro hold onto low-level stratus (cloudy) for much of the day.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro handles moisture trapping under subsidence inversions better than the GFS, which tends to over-scour low-level moisture.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.