Sunday, December 28
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Sunday, December 28, 2025.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Powerful Winds and Dramatic 30-Degree Temperature Drop
A potent, moisture-starved cold front will sweep across Kentucky, bringing spring-like warmth and dangerous wind gusts followed by a sharp evening freeze.
Confidence Assessment
Very high confidence in a dry frontal passage and a significant temperature drop. High confidence in winds exceeding 40 mph based on jet dynamics.
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Purchase Area
Temperatures will soar to near 71 degrees by mid-afternoon, but the warmth will be short-lived. A sharp cold front will arrive by 6 PM, causing temperatures to plummet into the 30s by midnight with wind gusts up to 45 mph.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a windy and warm day with highs of 70. Wind gusts of 44 mph are likely, especially near the Ohio River. Temperatures will drop over 30 degrees during the evening hours.
Southwest Pennyrile
A very warm day with highs of 72. Winds will gust to 40 mph throughout the afternoon. The cold air won't arrive until after dark, keeping it pleasant through the early evening.
Barren River
Highs near 70 will feel more like April. Windy conditions will persist all day with gusts near 44 mph. Temperatures will begin to slide after 9 PM as the front approaches.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will hit 70 degrees under cloudy skies. It will be very breezy with gusts up to 43 mph. The sharp cold front will pass through the city around 10 PM.
Lincoln Trail
Winds will be strongest along the Muldraugh Escarpment, where gusts may reach 48 mph. Expect unseasonably warm conditions followed by a quick evening cool-down.
Lake Cumberland
Temperatures will reach 70 degrees and remain very mild through the night as the cold front stalls to the west. Gusty winds up to 44 mph are likely by late evening.
Northern Kentucky
Cloudy skies and very strong wind gusts of 47 mph will dominate the day. Highs of 67 will crash into the 40s late tonight.
Inner Bluegrass
Prepare for a very windy day in Lexington. Highs near 69 will be accompanied by gusts that could blow around loose debris. The coldest air arrives after midnight.
Bluegrass Foothills
A pleasant high of 69 under cloudy skies. It will be windy, with gusts reaching 44 mph by evening. The arrival of the cold front will be slowed by the terrain.
Northeast Kentucky
A beautiful start with sunshine and highs near 67. Winds will increase dramatically after sunset. Gusts may reach 50 mph late tonight even as temps remain mild.
Southeast Kentucky
Enjoy a spring-like day with highs of 65 and sunshine. Winds will pick up on the ridges by evening. Valleys will stay warm and sheltered through the night.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the boundary layer mixes deeper into the 140mph jet core, wind gusts could exceed 55 mph, leading to scattered power outages and tree damage despite the lack of storms.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If cloud cover remains thick enough to prevent surface heating, peak wind gusts may stay below 40 mph, and the temperature drop would be more gradual.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Momentum Transfer Conflict
A significant discrepancy exists between the GFS/NAM and the Euro regarding peak surface wind gusts. While all models agree on a 140mph jet aloft, the Euro regional data suggests gusts stay below 20mph, while the GFS/NAM suggest 45-50mph gusts.
Why GFS Wins
In high-shear, low-moisture environments, the Euro regional output often under-represents mechanical mixing from a 60kt LLJ. The GFS and NAM profiles show a dry adiabatic lapse rate up to 800mb, which historically supports the 45-50mph gust potential.
The Warm Sector Peak
Models disagree on how far north the 70-degree isotherm penetrates. The NAM is notably more conservative (mid-60s), while the GFS and Euro push 70-72 degrees into the Pennyrile and Purchase.
Why BLEND Wins
Strong southerly flow and downslope warming in December often outperform NAM's cooler bias, but the GFS sometimes over-eggs the surface temps. A blend captures the likely record-challenging warmth.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.