Saturday, December 27
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Saturday, December 27, 2025.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Overcast and Mild Saturday with a Non-Diurnal Temperature Trend
A quiet but predominantly cloudy Saturday is expected across Kentucky. A weak surface boundary will sag through the state, leading to flat or falling afternoon temperatures in the north, while the south remains unseasonably mild. Despite thick cloud cover, dry low-level air will prevent any measurable precipitation.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in dry conditions due to dry air below 700mb; lower confidence in exact high temperatures due to the sensitivity of the frontal position and cloud thickness.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
A very mild day for late December with persistent cloud cover. Expect winds to pick up significantly after sunset as the pressure gradient tightens.
Northwest Pennyrile
It will be a gray Saturday with temperatures well above average. Winds off the Ohio River will add a slight chill to the air.
Southwest Pennyrile
Temperatures will reach the mid-60s, feeling more like mid-autumn. Expect thick clouds all day with no rain expected.
Barren River
Bowling Green will remain dry but cloudy for the duration of Saturday. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm for late December.
Louisville Metro
Temperatures will hover in the mid-50s under a stubborn layer of clouds. High temperatures will likely occur early in the day.
Lincoln Trail
A quiet and overcast day for Elizabethtown and surrounding areas. Expect temperatures to stay steady in the high 50s and low 60s.
Lake Cumberland
Morning clouds may break slightly in the afternoon, allowing for a few glimpses of sun. It will be very comfortable for any outdoor activities near the water.
Northern Kentucky
A raw and cloudy day with temperatures struggling to reach 50 degrees. High temperatures will occur in the morning before falling slightly.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will be trapped under gray skies all day. Temperatures will be mild but dampened by the lack of sunshine.
Bluegrass Foothills
A very consistent and gray day for Richmond and Berea. While it looks like it could rain, dry air will keep the area precipitation-free.
Northeast Kentucky
The day will start mild but feel cooler as the afternoon progresses. Clouds will remain thick throughout the entire day.
Southeast Kentucky
A very mild day for the mountains with temperatures reaching 60 degrees. Clouds will be thick, but no rain is expected to fall.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The GFS scenario: If the shallow cold air delays its arrival and the mid-level cloud deck thins, temperatures could soar into the lower 70s in the Purchase and mid-60s in the Bluegrass under filtered sunshine.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The NAM scenario: Persistent post-frontal stratus and stronger cold air advection (CAA) could keep the northern tier in the 40s all day with raw, breezy conditions and occasional sprinkles/flurries that fail to accumulate.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Frontal Timing Face-off
The NAM brings a sharp cold front through overnight, leading to falling daytime temperatures. The GFS keeps the front north, resulting in record-breaking warmth and sunshine.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides the most realistic middle ground, acknowledging the shallow cold air indicated by the NAM but maintaining the GFS's unseasonably mild airmass aloft. The NAM's cold air is often too deep in these setups, while GFS's warmth is too aggressive.
The Stratus Struggle
The GFS forecasts clear skies and high mixing, whereas the NAM and Euro suggest a thick layer of trapped moisture (stratus) beneath the inversion.
Why NAM Wins
NAM is historically superior at capturing 'pancake' stratus layers trapped under subsidence inversions in the Ohio Valley during winter. GFS typically overestimates solar insolation in these patterns.
Celestial Almanac
First Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.