Friday, December 26
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Friday, December 26, 2025.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Unseasonably Warm and Windy Post-Christmas Calm
A powerful warm-air advection regime will surge across Kentucky on December 26, bringing temperatures 15-25 degrees above seasonal normals. Despite overcast skies and strong atmospheric dynamics, a persistent dry layer in the mid-levels will prevent measurable precipitation, resulting in a warm but breezy day for the Commonwealth.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement among all models regarding the absence of precipitation and the presence of significant warm-air advection; the only uncertainty lies in the exact peak temperature and wind gust magnitude.
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Purchase Area
Expect an exceptionally mild day with temperatures approaching 70 degrees. While the sky will stay mostly cloudy, the warmth will be the main story. Breezy conditions will persist through the afternoon, but no rain is expected to interrupt travel or outdoor plans.
Northwest Pennyrile
Cloudy skies will dominate Owensboro and Henderson, but temperatures will feel more like spring than winter as they reach the upper 60s. Wind gusts near the river could reach 32 mph at times.
Southwest Pennyrile
A very warm afternoon is in store for Hopkinsville, with highs nearing 70 degrees. Overcast skies will prevent it from being a clear day, but it will remain dry.
Barren River
No winter weather is in sight for Bowling Green. Expect a breezy, warm day with clouds and temperatures in the upper 60s.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see a grey but very warm day. Temperatures will stay in the 60s, which is nearly 20 degrees above average.
Lincoln Trail
Overcast skies will prevail over Elizabethtown. It will be a windy day, but remarkably mild with temperatures in the 60s.
Lake Cumberland
Expect a very mild day around Somerset. Temperatures will be in the mid-to-upper 60s under a consistent cloud deck.
Northern Kentucky
A chilly morning in the 40s will quickly give way to a very warm afternoon in the low 60s. It will be breezy and cloudy throughout.
Inner Bluegrass
It will be a windy day across the Bluegrass. High temperatures in the 60s will make it feel unseasonably pleasant, despite the clouds.
Bluegrass Foothills
Cloudy and warm weather continues for Richmond and Berea. No rain or snow is expected, but a steady wind will be felt all day.
Northeast Kentucky
The morning start will be cool in the Ashland area, but temperatures will surge into the 60s by the afternoon. Staying dry and breezy.
Southeast Kentucky
Mountain residents will enjoy temperatures well into the 60s. Ridges will be breezy, but valleys will remain mild and dry under cloudy skies.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the low-level cloud deck breaks earlier than expected, solar insolation could boost temperatures into the mid-70s across Southern Kentucky, potentially challenging daily record highs.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the boundary layer remains decoupled or the warm front slows its northward progression, the Northern and Northeast regions could remain trapped in the 50s for much of the day under thick stratus.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Surface Momentum Transfer
NAM and GFS suggest wind gusts exceeding 30-35 mph as the low-level jet mixes down, whereas the Euro maintains a much calmer surface wind field.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically excels at resolving the mechanical mixing associated with low-level jets in warm-sector environments. Given the tight pressure gradient, the higher wind output is more meteorologically sound.
The 70-Degree Threshold
The GFS is aggressively pushing surface temperatures into the low 70s across the southern half of the state, while the NAM and Euro keep highs in the mid-to-upper 60s due to thicker cloud cover assumptions.
Why BLEND Wins
While the 850mb temps support 70s, the late-December sun angle and expected widespread high-level cirrus/mid-level clouds will likely cap temperatures just below the GFS's peak values.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.