Thursday, December 25
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Thursday, December 25, 2025.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
A Warm, Windy, and Dry Christmas Across Kentucky
A significantly unseasonable weather pattern will dominate Christmas Day, bringing record-level warmth and gusty winds to the Commonwealth. Despite thick cloud cover and a powerful jet stream overhead, a lack of low-level moisture will keep the surface dry across all regions.
Confidence Assessment
There is exceptional model agreement on the lack of measurable precipitation and the presence of unseasonable warmth. The only uncertainty lies in the exact peak of wind gusts and the specific high temperature in the Purchase area.
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Purchase Area
It will feel more like Easter than Christmas in Paducah and Mayfield. Highs will approach 70 degrees under mostly cloudy skies that may break for afternoon sun.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a grey but very warm Christmas along the Ohio River. Any morning rain on the radar will likely evaporate before hitting the ground.
Southwest Pennyrile
Hopkinsville and Madisonville will see temperatures soar into the upper 60s. It will be breezy at times but remains dry for all outdoor plans.
Barren River
A very mild day for Bowling Green with morning wind gusts up to 32 mph. The clouds will stay, but the rain will stay away.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will enjoy unseasonably warm temperatures in the mid-60s. High clouds will dominate, but it will be a great day for a walk.
Lincoln Trail
Cloudy skies and warm breezes will be the story for Elizabethtown. No snow or rain is expected for holiday travels.
Lake Cumberland
A very mild day for the Somerset area with temperatures in the low 60s. Winds will be breezy near the water.
Northern Kentucky
While it will be cooler than Southern Kentucky, temperatures will still reach the upper 50s. Expect grey, overcast skies all day.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see a very mild Christmas with highs near 62. Expect gusty winds during the morning hours.
Bluegrass Foothills
Highs will reach the low 60s across the foothills. Expect some wind gusts up to 34 mph, especially on the ridges.
Northeast Kentucky
Ashland and Morehead will stay in the 50s due to valley cooling, but it remains dry and comfortable for holiday travel.
Southeast Kentucky
A cloudy and mild Christmas for Hazard and Pikeville. Temperatures will be well above normal with no weather hazards.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If mid-level clouds break earlier than expected in Western KY, surface heating combined with intense WAA could push temperatures into the mid-70s, potentially shattering all-time Christmas Day records.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the mid-levels saturate faster than modeled, a few light sprinkles or 'trace' events could reach the ground, especially in Northern and Northeast Kentucky, though no measurable accumulation is possible.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Purchase Temperature Peak
The GFS is aggressively pushing highs of 72°F in the far west, while the NAM and Euro are more conservative in the upper 60s due to persistent cloud cover.
Why BLEND Wins
While the GFS often over-warms, the sheer strength of the WAA suggests the NAM may be too cool. A blend of 70°F reflects the high likelihood of records being challenged if any sun peaks through.
The Christmas Gust Conflict
A significant discrepancy exists regarding surface wind speeds. The NAM and GFS suggest efficient momentum transfer from the low-level jet, resulting in 30-35 mph gusts. The Euro is significantly calmer, showing sustained winds and gusts under 10 mph.
Why NAM Wins
Given the strength of the 850mb jet and the depth of the mixing layer in a warm-sector airmass, the Euro's light wind solution appears physically unrealistic. The NAM's higher resolution handles the momentum transfer and pressure gradient more accurately.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.