Wednesday, December 24
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Wednesday, December 24, 2025.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
A Warm, Gray, and Breezy Christmas Eve Across Kentucky
Kentucky will experience unseasonably mild temperatures this Christmas Eve as a powerful zonal jet stream remains positioned over the Ohio Valley. Despite the strong atmospheric dynamics, a significant lack of low-level moisture will keep the Commonwealth dry, with conditions dominated by persistent cloud cover and evening wind gusts.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the lack of measurable precipitation due to dry mid-levels across all models. Lower confidence on peak wind gust magnitude and the exact timing of cloud clearing in the evening.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
It will be an unseasonably warm Christmas Eve with temperatures nearing the upper 60s. Skies will remain mostly cloudy throughout the day, though no rain is expected. Expect winds to increase after sunset, with gusts up to 30 mph possible through the evening hours.
Northwest Pennyrile
A dry and mild day is in store for Owensboro and Henderson. Highs will reach the lower 60s under a blanket of gray clouds. Wind gusts will become noticeable in the evening, reaching up to 30 mph.
Southwest Pennyrile
Hopkinsville and surrounding areas will see temperatures nearly 20 degrees above average. It will stay dry despite the overcast skies. Winds will be light during the day but will pick up late in the evening.
Barren River
Cloudy and warm conditions will persist throughout the holiday. Highs will be in the lower 60s with dry roads for travelers. Breezy conditions arrive after dark with gusts near 30 mph.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will stay dry and unseasonably warm this Christmas Eve. Highs will reach the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Clouds will remain thick most of the day, with gusty winds developing during the evening commute.
Lincoln Trail
A very mild but gray Christmas Eve for Elizabethtown and Bardstown. No rain or snow is expected. Winds will be a factor in the evening, with gusts potentially reaching 35 mph.
Lake Cumberland
Dry and mild conditions will be the rule for the Somerset area. Temperatures will reach the low 60s under cloudy skies. Winds will be lighter here than in Western KY, but a few gusts near 25 mph are possible tonight.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will be slightly cooler than the rest of the state, but still mild with highs in the 50s. Skies will be overcast, but travel conditions will be excellent with dry roads.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see a gray, mild day with highs in the upper 50s. No holiday precipitation is expected. Watch for gusty winds in the evening, which could reach up to 30 mph in open areas.
Bluegrass Foothills
A pleasant and dry day for Richmond and Berea. Temperatures will reach the low 60s under cloudy skies. No rain or snow will impact holiday travel.
Northeast Kentucky
Ashland and Morehead will stay dry this Christmas Eve. While the skies will be overcast, temperatures will be mild, reaching the mid-50s. Winds will be light through most of the day, with a few gusts in the evening.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a calm and mild day in the mountains. Highs will reach the upper 50s to near 60 degrees in the valleys. Clouds will be persistent, but the holiday remains completely dry.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Spring Preview' scenario: If the mid-level cloud deck breaks earlier than expected, solar insolation could push temperatures into the lower 70s in Western Kentucky, while peak wind gusts could exceed 40 mph due to deeper boundary layer mixing.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Gloomy & Cool' scenario: If the NAM's thicker moisture profile wins, persistent low-level stratus could trap cooler air near the surface, keeping temperatures in the 50s statewide and suppressing the higher wind gusts from reaching the ground.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Sky Cover Conflict
The GFS suggests nearly clear skies with deep-column drying, whereas the NAM and Euro maintain significant saturation between 600mb and 400mb, leading to a persistent 'gray' Christmas Eve.
Why EURO Wins
In high-shear zonal flow with a 130kt jet, the Euro and NAM's representation of thick altostratus and cirrus is meteorologically more consistent than the GFS's aggressive clearing.
The Evening Gust Gamble
GFS and NAM forecast significant surface gusts (30-37mph) as the LLJ intensifies after 00z, while the Euro remains much more conservative with surface impacts.
Why BLEND Wins
While the Euro often under-represents gust potential in WAA regimes, the GFS is likely over-mixing. A blend captures the reality of a 40kt LLJ at 925mb over Kentucky's rolling terrain.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.